Explaining the Unexplainable…
The markets have been weak these past few days. That’s right, weak, even after QE-Forever has been finalized. Considering no bad news was able to move the markets lower, what gives?
Notice the weakness really began after the Presidential Debate?
As you know, the Obama/Bernanke/Geithner Ticket is the one that promises endless spending, entitlements and bank bailouts, to infinity. Romney is the guy who will supposedly ”get our fiscal house in order.” Yeah, right. But that is what the market believes at this moment.
So weakness is a product of some smart money profit taking before the end of the Fiscal Year at the end of this month. Plus some hedging, if you can believe that, just in case.
And as for Apple, above $700 it needed to be re-balanced (ie. lightened up on) in big portfolios. Plus there is some issue with the Mini margins. They will suck. Bottom line is that the stock will not go quietly with a huge swath of support in the 580-620 area.
As I’ve stated in the past, the only way Romney gets elected, even now, is if the stock market cracks wide open a few weeks before the election. And the cracks are forming.
7 Responses to Explaining the Unexplainable…
So what you’re is… chip in and help sell this market down.
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saying is*
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There are many ways Romney gets elected, or Obama re-elected. It’s a virtual tie now. Debate performance, new news, October surprise (for either candidate) voter turnout, and many other possible events can swing the election.
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Another event that went relatively unnoticed is the 2013 budget
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Overview
The projections are based on the assumption that the numbers stay the same… That an increase in tax rate will lead to an increase in revenue (there is little to no correlation in reality), and that the interest rates will remain the same (also a false assumption). Raising taxes virtually won’t do a thing.
Interest rates remaining static isn’t a false assumption. Bernanke and crowd control the curve, whether anyone likes it or not. As for increasing upper-income taxes increasing revenues, there’s no evidence in a vacuum, so it’s a bit of a moot point to argue.
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if they keep fudging the unemployment numbers, then yes,the clam can up the interest rate. and the shit will hit the fan.
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Romney is the guy who will supposedly ”get our fiscal house in order.”
“the only way Romney gets elected, even now, is if the stock market cracks wide open a few weeks before the election. And the cracks are forming.”
You seem to have contradicted yourself. If the market “wants obama to win” as you seem to say, since he is the free money regime, then why would the market participants allow the market to crack and thus help Romney get elected? Why are you predicting both of those things? It seems like a contradiction.
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