Same Game, Different Names.

Railroads. Radio. Nifty Fifty. Personal Computers. Biotech. Internet

You see that every few decades there are new bubble/booms. And in every new boom there is a bubble in a few of the leading names.

In the most recent Internet boom the stocks everyone had to own were the “Four Horsemen” of Microsoft, Intel, Cisco & Dell. They peaked with a market value of nearly $1.5 trillion. Combined they bottomed just a few years later with a value of of $250 billion, a loss of 80% from peak to trough. They have since doubled off their respective low-water mark to a market value of about half a trillion.

Today that group is comprised simply of Apple, Google & Amazon. Currently they sport a market value of just over $1 trillion. At their low water mark, at their 2008 lows, they traded with a market value of about $170 billion. They are up almost 500%.

In each bubble/boom, the names that “everyone must own” become ridiculous, yet are justified at their time. Today is no different.

Previous Posts by Scott Bleier

6 Responses to Same Game, Different Names.

Tonka says:

Percentage increase =

[(Ending value - Starting value) / Starting value] x 100

So, for the three companies you speak of:

[(1 trillion - 170 billion) / 170 billion] x 100 = 488%

Dell from 1996 to 2000 where it increased from $0.72 to $60:

[(60 - 0.72) / 0.72] x 100 = 8233%

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