As you know, this is the primary lesson that I was taught from all my years on TV. It is a simple message and exactly what viewers want to hear about the stock market.
I have also been articulating a simple message but it is usually drowned out by the noise of the day to day market. After all, it has been proven that the markets spend the vast majority of their time flat to up. This is fact. But when the government targets asset prices, it is a disaster just waiting to happen. Forget about all the news, THIS single aspect of the markets is what is most disturbing to my analysis.
Some of you might think I’m a PermaBear but I am not. I promise. My goal has been and will always be to save individual investors from the pain that has happened and that will happen.
I was bearish in 2007 but watched in horror as the markets levitated based on a belief that the FED could save the day. I had Bull/Bear debates on Fox where I was ridiculed for my position of caution. I even looked at the camera and told the audience to “Listen to me carefully, sell your stocks now”. I got a ton of shit off camera about it.
Our unstated policy is to boost asset prices. Because what company will hire while their stock is going down? What consumer will make hearty discretionary purchases when their 401k is dropping in value?
And that stocks won’t go down in an election year? Remember the last Presidential election? Most every country touched by financial crisis has turned over their government, except for Germany and us. Hmm…
Look, unless Europe gets another trillion or so by summer, there will be an epic run on banks over there. It has already been postponed once. And the market geniuses that believe a strong fourth quarter extrapolates into a strong first or second or third quarter has again been proven incorrect. Without massive manipulation of the numbers, GDP should be negative most everywhere in the civilized world.
My April 17 top call was a guide to the future. I’m not good enough to be that precice and anyone who is simply got lucky. There will be plenty of chest pounding rallies and drops but we’ve got more work to do. And waiting for Bernanke is not an investment strategy.
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Even though I usually disagree with you, I admire your conviction.
Scott,
used your advice and raised cash during April and would like an opportunity to deploy, trimmed commods and initiated “grandpa stocks”.
at what levels do you think Draghi will pump, and could it be timed with a Grrek exit to give it a double barrell to the face of perma bears?
very nice. I dunno, when they run out of money in the next month or two?
Scott, is IDCC going bankrupt? What’s the deal here?