Today is the nail in the coffin for any shorts, doubters, and general miscreants that would bet against One World Capitalism in the 21st Century.
I’m firmly convinced that there are few speculative shorts left in any of the major indices as they were stopped at $SPX 1265 and have covered any and every reload since. The only short interest out there are simply protective hedges designed to prevent a disaster that can never occur while we “pump up the jam”.
Sure, this rally is very long in the tooth. It started on December 19, 2011, the day the Euro-Ponzi became official and has added 120 SPX points. We’ve had the best January in 25 years and it won’t stop on the first day of a new month. In fact, it’s accelerating.
As in each year since 2009, markets will rally into the April 15 deadline of getting your 401k/IRA money into the marketplace. The odd-lotter must pay up for it is the American way.
And for those of you thinking the housing market is bouncing; houses here in the Northern New Jersey suburbs have just dropped about 10% in price since the beginning of the 4th qtr. of last year, just like in the previous three years.
So enjoy the Green Shoots, the Euro-Ponzi, the Chinese Pump, the Hope for QE3, the Machine Momentum and the Greater Fool Theory. Forget about everything else and don’t worry. I officially have. And you know what that means.
I’ve said this phase ends with a big volume thrust higher. You’re witnessing it as we speak. Nobody should bet against the Money Train.
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Now do we start the hedging?
I enjoy your commentary but dont understand your position. Are you saying all the better eco #’s are fabricated? pull-fwd demand? the “china hard landing” trade is as dead as they get, and the “euro ponzi” seems to actually be working – the LTRO’s will create what, north of $2trillion worth of free money that chases asset prices? I think its possible to be skeptical of the economies and banks actions, but still recognize that in USD terms the rally could go on for a long long time.
just my .02
The China hard landing is most certainly not dead. Unless you have unwavering faith in Chinese accounting, that is…
Hum… still sounding bearish in a round about way.
cho -cho, get on board,not the love train,the PONZI train..oh conductor..help that lady get her 401 trunk to the luggage car……..all aboard
hey scott,one question, do they serve cocktails on the Robert E.Ponzi.being transcontinental and all
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Unless Obama dips under 40% odds, I don’t see how we get above last week’s highs and stay there.
I’m not that anti obama, or pro mitt, but I’m not a typical fund manager.
You have to figure, at least 70% + of those guys lean conservative. Just based on their tax bracket alone.
Has this market really priced in an Obama re-election yet? When it does, we’re testing Dow 10k again. Easily.
You should look at the statistics on markets and the parties. Historically, the markets outperforms during democratic presidents.
It’s not the Presidents but the Congress’s that count.
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The Obama-ites will try to keep things looking rosy into the election. Blow the bubble a little bigger and hope it doesn’t pop until after Obama is re-elected. So ride the train but be ready to jump off before the crash.
so,lets all jump on the “soul train”. R.I.P. DON CORNIELOUS.come on board
Self-popped, no?
What my Dad used to call “sewer-pipes.”
He came from an age where it was distasteful to even say the word “suicide.” Quaint, no?
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everybody has a story jake.and yes,that is not the way out,distasteful,and selfish.
Actually China has been trading down since they came back, they have had no stimulus from the Govt and won’t get any soon. Merkel will be begging in China this week for money too, but they won’t give her any either. Rally imho really started in Oct with the BoE QEing and pushed up over that ECB present Scott mentioned. But, German Banks are running out of money to save europe so this should end soon. Europe and Germany were just .1% above in PMI vs earlier Flash PMI data, market had this news already, not sure why they didn’t sell on it?
Because it’s a bull market.
the clam will not let anything happen to germany. they are highly invested in the u.s., as is the u.s. is highly invested in germany. very high correlation between the two everyday of trade.all one needs to do is look at the dax hours before we open,we close pretty much the way they do,if dax red,we red. if dax green,were green.the correlation has been perfectly in sinc for the last 18 months, every day,unless a rumor gets in the way.
Drummer, Bubba and the Clam must have their tipping points. German People are not going to let their country do what the Fed did to us..Its such a mess, hey Clam is testifying today. Everything these days trades off the bonds and FX.
TN,
learn form the history –
Germans will do whatever the hell their Government want to do – one thing is certain – they have discipline.
Shipbuilders typically move up in February and then UPS and FDX follow along. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has collapsed so perhaps a move up due to a washout adn also seasonality will be in order. Typically, February is a good month to buy cyclicals like steel, chemicals, etc… A low in oil price tends to occur in late February. Companies such as Hershey’s, HSY, tend to top around Valentine’s Day. The January rally was led by an uber strong technology sector and blow-out AAPL earnings that makes up a large protion of the Nasdaq. Tech is strongest in Q4 and traders typically exit the technology sector the second week of February. Traders not exiting technology in the second week then tend to exit between OpEx and the end of the month. At any rate, the technology joy in January will likely deflate in February.
Breadth technicals are suggesting overbought and ready to head lower. Fundamentals are meaningless due top rampant news manipulation, and nothing more than an exercise in egotistical thought patterns.