European banks are fine except for the ones that aren’t. Earnings are fine, except for the ones that aren’t. And the market’s don’t seem to want to go lower.
Back in early July I was shocked to see how many stock had pulled all the way back to their breakouts from LAST JULY. That’s right, many stocks have given back a years worth of gains–30% or so–while the major market indices were down 12-14%.
Our strategy has been to accumulate on weakness. While so many were trying to trade with a noose around your neck, we’ve been doing a little buying and holding. Guess who’s going to come out ahead as we test SPX 1150?
Is there any bad news hanging over the market’s head? Just the usual crooks, thieves and incompetence. Nope, nothing to worry about. Be long or be wrong…
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Taking out 1107 will confirm the uptrend … could be the next wave up, buy the pullbacks if we get the confirmation for another lengthy run.
BTW–this is the first foray of the VIX under 24…
Great, more bullish complacency, get that Vix down under 20, and let the fun begin!
Watch out in early August….
It’s OK that you totally missed the move, Sloopy. I’m sure you’ll get bullish just before we top…
Your outlook on the economy may be correct, but you had better get in better tune with the MARKET if you want to make some money. You talk like a person stuck on the short side.
How’s the weather in the UK?
BTW–you doubted my copper call. It’s only up 10% this week
Fantastic calls as usual
Scott wins again
Thanks John. How’s your service on Twit’s doing? Having fun?
love your stuff, sir. lots of respect.
and i agree there do not seem to be any macro concerns remaining, and that earnings season has gone well so far…
but we have a whole host of weak sisters to work through before earnings season is over. results have been mixed but tilted toward positive. most tier 1 companies have reported, but now we get to hear from the tier 2 companies next week and after.
we will soon see whether the beats so far are a result of much better than expected increasing economic activity or simply share shift to bigger players. i am not totally convinced we are out of the woods yet.
don’t get me wrong. my portfolio leans more long than short and i would like nothing more than to see the market move higher. but i am not yet certain we continue to some level higher on lack of negative macro catalysts and better reports just yet.
Scott, while completely agreeing with you about getting in tune with the market, I am not sure how to interpret your statement implying that there is really not much mega bad news left in the market. To wit, as we all know its a widely publicized fact that the stress results amounted to not much because they didn’t consider all the relevant metrics. However, as I look downstream, I can’t help but wonder that the downside of the risks caused by not having a full fledged stress test seems to be far greater than the upside of having the stress test results released. If not short term, this has to be intermediate term risky and consequently negative for markets, no?