Back in February, after a quick 100 point SPX correction, everyone was expecting the end of the world…Especially after the hated “engineered and manipulated” rally that cost the FED over a trillion hard dollars. But markets rallied again to new highs even in the face of all the problems…
Now, today, we are in a market that spent the last 2 months on the defensive. During this correction there has been a plethora of bad news. Legitimately bad news and the markets suffered. It led many to forecast the “double dip” because the market was run by dips and was dipping.
This correction has driven most traders into a large cash position. This correction has removed much of the excess from the markets. Now we are bumping our head on major resistance and trying to get through. Guess what? We will and you are witnessing the summer rally…
Enjoy the extreme technical readings because it is now commonplace. The game of follow the leader continues…See you next at SPX 1120…
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We can always count on you to make the bold calls
Charts are setting up and I totally agree – taking postions this week
Great. But here is the difference between you and me:
I did not whipsaw trade this market trying to time each swing or move to 100% cash. I accumulated positions on weakness.
You now jump on to a market in motion and up 70 SPX from the recent low. I will soon say “sold to you”.
I am not trying to bust your chops. I just want to point out the differences in style. True–you were bold and great jumping into an upward moving market. But markets don’t do that forever–especially after a 14 month rally.
It is going to be the whipsaw, the chopping block and the hangmans’ noose for many, many market particiapants.
The beauty of this site is that there are many styles here that alternatively work at any given time…
The highest I ever went was 62% cash and I’m now 55% cash as of a few days ago (haven’t bought anything since – these are all sold puts done on support lines btw). My big mistake here was miscalculating the severity of the correction and going 35% cash on the outset when it should have been over 50% – The Fly caught this one correctly.
Yesterday I put on two small call spreads and today put on another – these are momentum plays and by definition get pyramided up not down and only put on in a shorter term uptrending market. Max hold is 2-4 months on any of these.
3/4 of my investments are in boring canadian dividend paying/covered call stocks that I add to on weakness only and rarely touch.
Lots of styles I have, but only momentum investing is interesting to others so that’s what you mostly see posted here.
Hello Mr. Bleier, Thank you for your sound thought as always. What do you see for the lest of this year? After the summer rally, is it going to lower to last July’s low? or slope higher over all? I appreciate your vision.
1120….bold call, lol. Its 5 points above us.
I’ve been saying 1120 since last week at SPX1050 and I wrote this in the morning below 1100. Thanks so much for your input.
Where did you say 1120 last week? Link me to the blog post, tweet, or radio show. Also, we reached 1100 around 9:45. Doesn’t your 9am show last an hour? You must have typed it during the break…
next resistance is 1120.. what recourse do you have to call out a statement of a rally. TRUE contrarian to call a rally giving that T/A shows a H&S forming… believe me i would love to see a rally and not a sell off. peopels IRA, MUTUAL FUND will get massacred.. So why do you think we are going to rally Scott. thanks for the reply.