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Going Full Eeyore


He was Emo when Emo wasn’t cool.
Stubbornly and like an ass, I sold continuously throughout  the day.    

In drips and drabs of course, but it becomes cumulative after a while.   Frankly, I don’t know how Docteur Le Fly does it.   It seems like one day he’s fully invested and then — BOOM! — He’s 60% in cash.

It doesn’t even seem to faze him.

I, on the other hand, agonize on every share sold in a rising market, even as I know deep down in my medulla oblongata (sic), it must be done.  I am at a little more than 25% cash right now and I feel as if I’ve been scourged on the wheel for a fortnight.

Perhaps I shall cut out that nasty M.O. and be shrived of my cognitive dissonance sins at last.  Who needs motor function anyway? I can always blog at you via sophisticated “eye-blink” technology, right?

Onto the shriving.   Needless to say, I bought nothing today, despite the ambulatory nature of such Ag Gems as Jacksonians The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Monsanto Company [[MON]] , which finally broke back over the $80 barrier.    You remember the old Fly-saying, yes?  “If it gets over $80, it’s going to $120?

We shall see.   I also like Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[IPI]] and Agria Corporation (ADR) [[GRO]] , but lower.

Sales today were across the board on the PM’s and I even took the time to sell off some odds and ends as well.

I sold some enormous Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] today — almost 30% of my stash, 4k at $13.12.     I also sold 2k shares of the enormous performer IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , one third of my holdings in that name, for $18.85.    Sawing a hunk of my shoulder blade off would’ve been less painful.

Of my 6k shares of [[GDX]] I sold 2k outright at $50.18, and then hedged the remainder by selling March $50 calls at $5.25 a piece.

Taking a dull spoon to my eyes, I sold another 4k of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , and then hedged 7k of the remaining 11 by selling 70 March $16 calls at $1.90 and $2.00.     Perhaps talking about it here will assuage my pain? 

I sold 2k of [[PAAS]] at $24.68 and another stray K of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $12.16, leaving me with 4 and 10k respectively.    What will you have of me next?  My children?

Oh my, I must have been putting this one out of my mind, as I’d almost forgotten… I also sold 8k of [[EXK]] today (40%!) at $3.68.  Arthur Koestler, I know your Darkness at Noon!

Last on the precious fronts, I sold 1.5k of [[CDE]] at $21.99 and $22.03, and 4k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $4.16.  

On the “odds and ends” front, I sold another 2k of [[BIOS]] at $7.68, leaving me with only 2k left, which I will not sell outside of Armegeddon, where I may need River Styx fare. 

I also sold 6k of Citigroup Inc. [[C]] for a rare loss (only a couple of pennies plus commish) on a complete “cautionary” basis.   I think I can buy those back cheaper, is all.    Last, I sold a stub amount (1k) of Sinovac Biotech Ltd. [[SVA]] which I’ve owned since the low $3 range, for $7.51.

Last, but not least, I booted the remainder of my [[ERX]] (1.5k) with the dividend pushout, at $38.46.

I am quite exhausted and on tenter-hooks, ovah heah, but I must trust my charts and instincts, or all is lost.   I am thinking we will see a correction at least into Turkey Week, as Tim Geithner and the Klown Kircus will be selling more yummy T-bonds into the maw of Mother Market whilst we prepare for Pilgrim Foods.

You know what that usually means by now, I expect.   If not, you have not been paying close attention, and are condemned to suffer the fate of Piglet during Swine Flu Saison (sic).    (Ostracism)

Best to you this weekend.   Off to see an Opera.


Addenda — if you haven’t already done so, be sure to ring up your block head Senator and tell him/her that this Obamacare is a train wreck waiting to happen.     It looks like Dirty Harry Reid and the Dem Senate are taking a page out of Madame Pelosi’s book of legerdemain and are going to try to jam this through in a Saturday Night Special.   If this were a good bill, of course they’d have no need to be so serpentine.



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Friends Don’t Let Friends Score FAZ

Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the high.  The high you get from being right when everyone else (or most everyone) is wrong.   Let me tell you it can be a heady thrill,  as good or better than any triumphs on the athletic or academic plain.

But I implore you to forswear this high.   Do it today.   For it will turn you into a ravening frog-eyed hermit, cursing the clouds and the crowds for not bending to your superior will and your knowing…. your knowing.

This is a game of accepting defeat after all, shaking the Fly’s hand in a firm, but gentlemanly fashion and then moving on.  It’s  not a game of self incineration.   We must keep foremost in mind that a mass of blackened carbon cannot sally forth ever again.   He can only sit, and smolder and fume and smoke…. 

And curse his fate…

On alternating Mondays.


   It looks like no one will be able to keep these commodities down for very long.   Is it the dollar?  Is it our interest rates?  Looming inflation?   I don’t know.   “KISS” — not the rock group but the acronym — instructs me to “K-eep I-t S-imple, S-tupid,” and so I will.

Just follow the trend til it ends.   

Is that instruction really that tough to follow?   Yes, the Devil Dog is in the details, but then you’ve many friends here (and on The PPT) with whom to consult.   We shall not leave your side despite your sweaty palms and mild B.O..      The bio-techs are still working.  Don’t ask me why, I blame CA  for starting the conversation with a grainy haus frau in a smoke-filled bar in Washington Heights three weeks ago.

You know how the flutter of the butterflies wings in a crowded tavern leads to hurricanoes in the porcelain room?     I like [[HEB]]-rews here, and First Phillip-ians [[MO]].    Another stealthy bio-tech I’ve been mentioning is [[SVA]] which had another solid day.  Last [[BIOS]] could take off at any time.    Or not.  I like it in the low 4’s.

As well, the commodites are working their tiny little mono-muscles .   General Jackson’s [[TC]] rebounded with great vigour (sic) and newly acquired [[TIE]] (non-Jackson) looks good too.  Even the PM’swere not pulling back with the vigour I expected from this mornings sad state of affairs.  My goodness, the worst hit Jacksonian was our highest flyer thus far, Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]], down a little over 3%.    By the way, if he could see his way to $28.40 tomorrow, or close thereby, he would offer an excellent entry for all those seeking his agrarian charms.  

Let’s look at the rest of the Jacksonian Core Holdings list, with attendant commentary:

Name 8-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 29.12 -3.09%   Finally backing off a hot run. $28.40 entry.
EGO       9.27 0.32%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
GDX     41.30 -0.07%   Got our $40 target and bounced at support.
GLD     93.56 -0.16%   Hung on 20-day and 78% long term fib.
IAG     10.21 1.49%   Beautiful hammer off support, could be ready again
MON     82.79 0.99%   Still battling.
NRP     23.93 -2.33%   Still struggling with that $24 line.
PAAS     21.50 -2.63%   Another long tail doji, good EOD volume.
RGLD     44.10 0.05%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SLV     14.76 -1.67%   Tested $14.50 early, then up the rest of the day.
SLW     10.18 -1.83%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SSRI     22.13 -1.03%   Yet another hammer doji, this time on the 38% fib.
TBT     57.29 0.61%   $60 next stop.
TC       9.74 -1.81%   $10.96 near term target.  Another hammer doji.
TSO     15.68 0.77%   Wretched, but alive for today.
AVG   -0.69%    

Let’s hang together shall we?   I’d rather not hang separately.


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I Got Good News and Bad News

I got good news and bad news on the market  front, ovah heah.   The good news is, I’m going to show you my Russell 2000 chart ($RUT), which I’ve been using to parse the market since before the first bank meltdowns of late 2007.   You see the Russell, even more than the [[SPY]] in my opinion, gives you a better view of the “overall market” than any other index.    You can also check it’s volume using [[IWM]] it’s ETF.

I find that the Fibonacci retracement lines work very well in analyzing the Russell as well.   Take a look at where where we found ourselves this morning:


As you can see we are bumping up against one of the stronger Fibonacci “Golden Ratio”  (inverse) lines at 38.2% (the other being the actual Golden Ratio of 61.8%).   I expect that means at least some sort of rest stop here.   That said the “good news” is that 13-34 week cross which implies further bullishness should it continue.   As I have attested, and I think even Woodshedder has agreud (sic) — the 13-34 week “golden cross” is one of the most significant bullish or bearish indicators out there.   

Let me know what you think, but don’t be surprised if I disregaurd (sic) your thoughts in a cavalier, dismissive way, whilst inserting snuff up my nose, all atop my “knee-controlled” white charger.

One other point — some of these biotech unpinned hand grenade small craps are pulling back a little today, and since I sold off 2/3rds of my [[HEB]] -brews yesterday, I may dip back into the Red Sea to rescue some more pedestrians today.    I also like [[IMGN]] here (thanks Henry!), but will not add more as I am “full up” to the brim with it.    [[SVA]] also bounced nicely off it’s trendline today, but I’d wait to see if it drops back to $2.90 before taking a chance on any of it.    The last insanity is [[CTIC]] which has been a darling of The PPT, along with [[BEE]].   I think the latter looks a lot more promising, but have not gotten any yet. 

As always, I recommend you stay as far away from the above paragraph as you would a Mossad Hit Squad with your name at the top of their list.   There’s no question your purchase of any of the above will warrant a quick waterboarding, coupled with a full-torso Obama campaign sticker “body bind”, finally finished off in a late night rowboat assisted drop into The Great Salt Lake, where you will bob for hours, your pitiless cries ignored by disinterested Mormon seagulls.

On the precious metal front, as I suspected, more pullback, but the metal rustlers cannot disguise all — [[PTM]] looks strong here, comparatively.   Slow and steady wins the race, old boy.   Best to you all.


Update: I bot 2k more HEB to take with me across the unpaved Red Sea @$3.10.


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Nice Work, Mr. Anderson!

I interrupt this heavily precious metal-oriented blog in order to pay homage to The #1 Jacksonian Holding since inception (May 1st, our official/unofficial start date).   Mr. Anderson — [[ANDE]] broke the 70% mark today, in a little over a month’s trading.  

That’s kind a special, so I figure I’d give old “Keanu” a shout out.   Do you begrudge?  Better question — do you own it?

Mind you, I think the PM’s will eventually leave Mr. Anderson in the dust, counting spoons that aren’t really even there.   And believe me, the PM”s are not doing too shabbily as it is, with [[SLW]] up 41.84%,  [[TC]] up 41.49% and  [[PAAS]]  up 39.88%.   All of the golds are in the 30’s as well, with my three laggards being (in order) [[NRP]] +0.66%.,  [[TSO]] + 0.31% and negative nelly-monster  [[MON]] at (-2.76%).   The overall port, thanks to today’s recovery, is just under 26% for the entire period.  

What’s that you say?  Molybdenum’s not a precious metal?  Well it’s PRECIOUS TO ME!

For today I added a little [[EGO]] at $9.57 — my one holding that did not close in the black today (by two cents).   Ironic, no?   Still I wanted to fill that position and I think it’s coiling for a move here.   Everyone else recovered to some extent, but I would not bet my bottom dollar that we are out of the turbulence yet.   No, I shant sound the “all clear” until we’re  above the $400 mark on the $HUI, as mentioned in last night’s post.   We got halfway back, closing a bit above $387  this afternoon.  

As I said, use this time to accumulate positions in the Jacksonians, and in some [[GG]], [[AUY]], [[ANV]], and [[EXK]] — among the other PM’s of your choice.  Soon these prices will be but a dream to you, I fear. 

If you want some non-Jacksonians, I’ve been playing some biotech lotto with [[SVA]], [[HEB]], [[SFE]] and [[CTIC]].   I’m not even going to disclaim those, as if you dare playing with them you are too “certifiable” to hire a creditable lawyer in the first place.  Just. Don’t.

Two quick charts showing Mr. Anderson’s  progress.  The first shown when I laid out the first blog post on the idea, the second captured today:




And today’s portfolio performance.  Be well all.


Name 4-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.22 6.45%   Up over 70% since 5/1
EGO       9.52 -0.21%   Got  more today @ $9.57 – can ya tell?
GDX     43.51 3.20%   $HUI back above $385 again ($387)
GLD     96.23 1.93%   POG up 2.2% today.  ($983.50)
IAG     10.55 1.54%   Gaps filled, but anemic.
MON     82.90 1.72%   Back to Tuesday’s close
NRP     24.24 3.86%   Healthy recovery for this sluggard
PAAS     23.29 4.30%   Up 5.6% since yesterday’s purchase ($22.05)
RGLD     46.19 1.34%   Low volume retrace
SLV     15.63 3.24%   POS back close to $16 again.
SLW     10.95 3.69%   Closed right on the 50% fib retrace
SSRI     23.97 4.04%   Over the cup again-exactly
TBT     56.00 3.72%   Back over 61.8% fib – $60 next target
TC     10.06 7.71%   Blew right back up again.
TSO     16.06 5.87%   Back in the long term green by 31 basis pts.
AVG   3.49%    


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What A Short Strange Trip It’s Been: SPX Again

Remember when I started posting for the start of competiton,  a little bit less than a month back?   I put up this look at the S&P 500 chart, to give an idea of where our regression to the mean (200-day EMA) targets might lie …


Well, here’s where we’ve come since that first chart, and perhaps some signs of where we might be going….


As you can see from the above chart, the obvious resistance point is right ahead of us, at the segmented red line, which is also the not-so-coincidental meeting of the 200 day EMA (@ 950) and the early January cycle highs of about 945.   I think it’s highly likely we pause and at least digest for couple of days at this level, if not complete a pull back all the way to the 50-day EMA in the 840’s region.   

That said, given the power of this recent move, and the very convincing money flow into the large caps here, I think we may have even one higher push to go after this pause at 945-950.   I think this market will continue to confound the bears by continuing to overachieve in the face of  “not horrible” news.  I think we go all the way to that second (blue) line at around 1010, and with very little provocation.  

In addition, there’s one other observation that’s been intriguing me here.   Do you see how there is very little resistance (via the price-volume bars to the left) before almost 1200 on this chart, once we’ve broken through that second target line?  

How ironic would it be to see the few remaining bears’ backs broken as the market galloped heedlessly through that light resistance “free air” all the way to that more formidable resistance bar in the 1250-1300 region, only to finally turn poisonous once again, and decimate every true believer who had hopped on the treachourous bull bus of certain death by that late date?  

I hear you all telling me to put the Vick’s Vapo-rub away as you read this conjecture, but take heed.   It could get severely, almost Andrea Dworkinlevel ugly, and yet, I don’t see that “catch the market idiots” move as a fantastic scenario, given the current inflationary bubbles beginning to percolate in the PM , Earl, Ags and materials sectors.

But let’s face it, we don’t know what even tomorrow will bring for the SPX.   What we can use as a proxy crystal ball, however, is the Large Cap Techs as illustratrated by the following Cube Chart:


Note that the Cubes have already broken out of their consolidation zone, and are currently testing those levels on a pullback.   Note also they have breached their 200 day EMA, and are again, re-testing those levels on the pull back.   Note also how the Cubes’ oscillators have also turned down in response to this pullback?   

I expect the S&P 500 to follow its more ADD-HDAD tech-nerd brother in the same fashion over this next week.    And I believe the Cubes behaviour (sic) will continue to act as a “tell” for our overall market as well, so let’s keep a gimlet eye on both charts for the return of the bear, which I have no doubt is only on torturous hiatus here, and will be back soon to set fire to both young and old alike.     

Until then, peace be unto you and yours.


UPDATE:  Covered 60% of my TSO June 17.50 short calls @ 0.70 ($0.52 profit), Bot 10k PLLL @ 2.15 – 2.20, bot 10k SVA @ 2.73- 2.75 (hat tip to Caveman Forecaster – post found here ).

Caveat:  If you choose to put on any of these trades there’s ample chance your wife will force you to live in a cave until early winter, and you could lose money, quickly.

UPDATE:  Bot 2k ELN @ 7.33 (hat tip to CA and RC’s  Circus of the Stars)

Caveat:  If you buy ELN at this juncture, and Irish drug addict could decamp on your front stoop, warbling “Black Velvet Band” til all hours of the morning and putting off your cats, AND you may lose money.


UPDATE:  Bot another 2k  of SLW @ 8.62 .  Acorns for a rainy day, see caveats above.



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Caveman “Gets” The Flu For You

Be sure to check out The Caveman Forecaster’s latest “Flu-cast” .   In this episode, he’s got enough “news-to-market” analysis in there to make Cronkite sweat, and enough statistical-analytical charting and graphing to get Woody and Cuervo to momentarily stop choking emus and take a gander.

For you degenerate OTB traders looking for an edge, he also put together his own “Swine Flu Index” consisting of  the stocks NVAX, PURE, BCRX, AVII, GNBT, and SVA, which are all highly correlated.     Since this thing seems to be at least temporarily dying down, that might be a decent short play right now.   Enjoy.


UPDATE:  For those of my fellow Karen TSO fans, here is an interesting article that bodes well for the future of the refinahs (HT: Greenfaucet).


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