Be-ware!  Be-ware! Beware-Beware-Beware!

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What makes a bear run nekkid onto the piazaa you ask?   The promise of honey, mayhap?

Mayhap, rabbit… mayhap.

But you simply must ask, if only for the sake of  civilized conversation — what honey is available, Mr. Silver Urso?

I mean, the traditional price ratio between gold and silver has been in the 40x area in our “modern era”  (i.e., “Post-Rooseveltian gold grab, 1933.” )

This evening, with gold at $1,108/oz. and silver at $17.39, that ratio stands at a hamster’s whisper below 64x.

For those scoring at home, that’s a 60% premium to the historical ratio.  

Ironically, it appears shorting [[GDX]] is a better roll of the dice than shorting [[SLV]]  here.   Why you’d be cracked enough to short either, however, is a question for those better schooled in psychiatry than myself.  

I vote “secret death wish.”

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On seeing the Silver Bears in the Piazza this morning, I loaded a bit more [[AGQ]] — 400 shs at $60.55, bringing us within 600 shares of my longer term goal of 4k total.    First target on SLV is $18.08 and then $19.13 and then to the old highs at $20.66.   

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] broke to post-crash highs today, and will run into congestion at $15.00, so be nimble here.

Looks like [[GLD]] is comfortable staying over $106.50 at least for now.   Whether we continue to break out, or will consolidate some here, will depend on that line, I believe.

On non-PM related topics, Jacksonian Long Term Hold Monsanto Company [[MON]] had a BTFO on the revelation that more of their universe-changing IP is being rolled out earlier than expected.  

Odd, no?  

Get Frankenfoods or go eat a frankfurter, hippies! 

I sold half my $70 strike November MON calls that I bot on the Bollinger Band crash trade back in the high 60’s a week or so back, and am holding the rest to dispense with on a follow-up tomorrow.    Or not, if none materializes.  

Also, [[BIOS]] continues to btfo, despite my having sold half my position in the high 7.90’s.   I will continue to hold as a result of this continued move.

Good luck, piazza pizza eaters.

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UPDATE:  Some fun facts for the healthcare debate crowd, courtesy of The National Center for Policy Analysis.

Enjoy!

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$1,100 gold is right around the corner and we zoomed over $17 again on the silver to rest currently at $17.22.

As a result, the miners of anything shiny from platinum to tin foil have gone Batman on us and are leaping in grey tights and high-cropped riding boots from roof to roof.

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] must absolutley be on your “Grandmother list” and I mean not for your grandmother, but for your grandmotherhood.

You don’t think Social Security is going to keep you in tea cakes and airplane bottle of Chivas, do you?

Also, for your dining pleasure, Fly has engineered a special gold list for The PPT and left it only for those whom I favor. It’s like stumbling into Aladdin’s Treasure Cave without use of magic verse or carpet.

You are that lucky.

You can see everything I mentioned last night launched out of the park today. That’s because Gold — and [[GLD]] has broken out to new highs again, and is on it’s way to $1,250 and then higher still. In addition to RGLD and the Jackson’s you want to get hold of these top Ten Fly Listers also:

Name              Hybrid % Chg              PPT Score/5.0 

1 AUY                 43.21  %                                4.11

2 NXG                    27.36                               4.05

3 EGO                     33.55                                4.02

4 GG                        21.08                               4.02

5 AZK                     32.99                               3.87

6 GOLD                  42.64                               3.78

7 RGLD                 63.64                               3.78

8 ABX                    20.20                               3.63

9 GFI                    50.43                                 3.52

10 NEM                12.75                                 3.45 

Go! 

Be benificent to one another in this day of gloury (sic).

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The Foundation of a Trustworthy Country
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I have no time to speak, only to reiterate that Friday’s “non-confirmation” of the gold break (unlike the rest of the market) gave me the “green light” on the continuation of this secular bull in the precious.

I’d add Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on this pullback if the accumulated bricks of it weren’t already filling up my garage to the chagrin of my crappy Volvo.  So I’m getting the next best thing, which is [[CDE]] .

For the remainder of the market, continue to watch [[UUP]] for your “tell.”

Stay golden, pony boys and girls.

 

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Great day for Pat Boone and friends… Pat looking on warmly with that glint in his eye, as opposed to the gleam he reserves for bad days, when his guitar strings break and he ends up beating Debbie and the wife.

Smaug’s Lair of The Hobbit’s late-chapter fame is a good metaphor for this market, if you are like myself and need metaphors to get you through the day like a nice semolina bread and head cheese sandwich at lunch.     The old treasure dragon from the Tolkien classic  signifies the danger implicit in this precious metal bull, and yes, maybe the greed, too.

So let’s try to remain cautious and harvest prudently when the corn grows high, whether by selling calls or taking our positions back a bit.  No need to be piggish and end up as dragon droppings amidst the mithril.

Only one chart tonight, and maybe tomorrow I’ll give you some new picks to augment my Jacksonian rockets (The Jackson Port ended today at 38% despite loss positions in both Monsanto Company [[MON]] and our ultra-hedge [[TBT]] ).

Tonight is a silver night, however, as my seven silver horses [[AGQ]] , [[CDE]] , [[EXK,  Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] were up a combined average of 9.19% today.  

These miners will continue to perform as silver tries to catch up with already “BTFO” gold, which broke to new highs today.   As you can see with [[SLV]] , there’s still a lot of room for silver to grow up in this cycle:

More later tomorrow after yet another morning meeting.   Remember — be cautious with the sleeping dragon, lest he make a tasty canape out of your chitinous carapace. 

Ciao.

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(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love!)

Ultra Silver Pro Shares [[AGQ]]

Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]]

Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]]

Banro Corp. [[BAA]]

 

(My Love is rotten to the core…)

Citigroup Inc. [[C]]

 

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

Coeur d’ Alene Mining Co. [[CDE]]

Powershares Double Silver ETN  [[DBS]]

Powershares Double Gold Long ETN [[DGP]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

Corriente Resources Inc.  [[ETQ]]

Endeavour Silver Co. [[EXK]]

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF [[GDX]]

 

(Just like ah told you be-foah, be-foah, be-foah!)

Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]]

SPDR Gold Shares [[GLD]]

Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]]

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]]

New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]]

 

(Hey! Hey! Hey!)

Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]]

Pan American Silver Corp. [[PAAS]]

Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]]

Seabridge Gold, Inc. (USA) [[SA]]

 

(Hey! Hey! Hey!)

iShares Silver Trust  [[SLV]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]]

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]]

 

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love!!!)

(fade out)

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOkZ2zhCx5I 450 300]

Aside — if you weren’t such a piker, you’d join The PPT and catch me pounding out these winners like freshly minted doubloons on a daily basis…. tsk! tsk!

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Don’t let anyone ever tell you bear markets are tough. At least bears are conditioned for rapid snap-backs and so set tight stops and get the heck out of Dodge when the inevitable reversals come.

But try trading a true, secular bull if you want some real whiplash action. The older these things get, the more ornery and difficult to ride.

Take for instance the gold and silver plays we’ve visited in the last week. You wouldn’t know you were in the midst of a nine-year secular bull with the wall of worry we’ve been climbing since our original early month break over $1,000 in POG.

And yet, despite the pullback under $1,000, there’s no question we are still in a strong bull in the precious metals, and the dollar is still in a death spiral, despite it’s launch today. Still, I lightened on some leverage today, as a result of [[SLV]] dropping below it’s long term 61.8% fib at $16.04. Specifically, I got rid of the 40 $9 strike December Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls I’d bought a few days earlier. I’m not sure silver will stay under $16 here, but prudence forced my hand on this one.

For that, I’ll never forgive Prudence.

Still loaded to the gills on the precious plays, and gold looks like it’s remaining close to the $1,000 mark even as the price of silver plunges down near $16, a significant level, I believe, as that makes gold over 62x the price of silver. That can’t last in this market.

I am going to continue to sit on my hands as I’ve been doing, and work the margins for the most part. If you feel you must trade, I’d focus on the more volatile plays, like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] which will likely experience a pretty frightening bounce here in the next two or so days.

For Prudence and her crew, I like [[GDX]] , which may drop all the way to $42.50 here first. I also will look to accumulate Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] — my superstar– if it gets any cheaper. This is a great place to start on RGLD as well, if you have not yet had the chance. [[CDE]] will also bounce hard, when it finally decides to do so.

Patience.

That’s all for now… more tomorrow in the comments section.

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