Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

__________________________

I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

_____________________________

 

Comments »

_________________________

Options expiry week always makes for fun times in the already-volatile precious metal markets, and this week was no exception.  In fact, I’m thinking of just posting pictures of Care Bears and soothing contra-alto laden Carpenter’s videos during these weeks in the future.   I think that policy would be much better for our collective gastro-intestinal health.

I guess we should have been even more wary this week, as the POG and it’s idiot sister, the POS, were both due for cycle lows on top of their collective miners’ options’ expiry.    That combination made for some sickening drops this week, and now, I contend, for some very attractive purchase prices.

When was the last time you were able to buy SLW under $30.00?  Howabout ANV under $30??  Oh, sorry, that was yesterday.  You snooze, you lose.  SSRI looks like a nice pinch right now, if you’re looking for a cherry.   EXK and AG in that order, remain the best of the silver surfers, however.

For those wading back in, the ETFs would be the order of the day… I like them in this order — GDXJ, SIL, GDX, and for the brave of heart — NUGT (real small now!).

I made mention earlier in the week that I want to see the price of gold ($GOLD) hold that 34-week EMA.   It will be interesting to see if it does get back there today…as that’s $50 north of current prices at $1642.80.  There is precedence for closing very briefly below there on a weekly basis — way back in April of 2009, when we were just crawling out of the muck.  Could this be a similar situation?   Let’s see how we close today.

Best to you all.

___________________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVN_0qvuhhw 450 300]

_______________________________
It seems that the Olympian Fowl of Late November have been a bit tardy this year.   Gauging the current mood of the financial blogosphere, however, one would think the Mohawks had rescinded the Thanksgiving truce and were busy rendering bad punk haircuts to the entire Southern District of New York.

Ridiculous.   So you had a bad “Black Friday Shopping Experience?”  You didn’t get that $199 42″ plasma from Best Buy despite leaving 4 grandmothers denture-less thanks to your “flying elbows of  mercantile death?”  That’s a damn shame.   You should bring a hockey stick next time if you want to prove you are a playah.   That’s no reason to go all knee-knocked on the market because of a bad Turkey Week. I urge you not to become Ursine Prejudiced.  It’s the worst kind of poison for the mind.

You see, sometimes the Turkey Gods are leisurely in their ambling down from the stratosphere to bless you with the grapes of coin.  This is why it pays to have patience and to step into an oversold cycle in a graduated fashion.   Last week I saw the PM’s starting to show signs of a rally even as the dollar stayed strong, but I knew that rally would not fully materialize until the dollar was finally ready to retreat.  So I played halfway, and stayed out of the high octane stuff (save for a starter in AGQ) to start.

By my calculations, that dollar retreat should have started Wednesday or even Friday of last week, and therefore, by those lights, the dollar is living on borrowed time.   I think we will see a top perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning as the dollar tries to rally to the September highs.   From a stochastic and RSI standpoint, that rally looks ready to stall.  Note the overbought conditions in the following daily index chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we can take advantage of this pullback and I plan to put on some leveraged plays — including NUGT and AGQ — if the dollar begins to break down significantly this week.   I’m not sure I will have those plays on for very long, but I think we can take some short term advantage of the return to the mean this oversold cycle presents.   As usual I would look to the liquid plays — GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW and RGLD.   If you insist on playing the micros and the juniors, please play small… and swiftly.

Best to you all, in your tryptophan heavens.

_____________

Comments »

_____________________

I have a daughter who was born in 2000.  She’s going to a classmate’s party today, and you guessed it, the classmate is also 11, on 11/11/11.   Pretty cool.  Of course my daughter also knows kids that were in 10 on October 10th and 9 on September 9th, and almost all the way down the line.   I guess that’s one of the hidden perks of being a Millenial Baby. 

Of course all that fun ends next December on 12/12/12, which will not coincidentally also soon after auger in her first year of teenagerdom.  Teenagerhood?  Teenagedness?

In any case, I’d better gird my loins.

But let’s not lose sight of the importance of the Day itself, written into history in 1918 as the end marker of “The War to End all Wars” — WWI.  Unfortunately that was a bit of hubris, wasn’t it?  The very Treaty (Versailles) signed that day in fact set the groundwork for an even worse World War only a little more than 20 years later. 

The study of history shows that human nature is cyclic, and that we tend to make the same mistakes, no matter our careful plans to eradicate them by mutually agreed consensus.   There will always be those who seek to take advantage of said consensus, just as there will always be those claiming we’ve finally arrived at the “End of History.”  

To expect otherwise in future is a fool’s game.  We can only do the best we can, and improve ourselves individually and as a society by gentle consensus, and with a constant and humble awareness that we will backslide.  That knowledge, that humility, will allow us to rebound all the quicker.

I would humbly suggest we hold then to our accumulated traditions, our respect for others, their person and property and our fealty to consensual agreement over forced autarchy.   For these are the traditions that set the Free People of the West apart from civilizations of the past, and from the failed societies of the present.  

But let’s also be most cognizant that these traditions are under fire from many quarters, and that in many cases, all that stands between them and the less enlightened cohorts of the past are the blood of those willing to defend their preservation.

So let’s raise a glass to our Veterans, and to those who carry the sword — voluntarily — into battle for our civilization today.   And pass that good word to a soldier in uniform not just this day, but from this day foreward.

_______________

As I expected (was hoping?), the dollar gnomes have collapsed the dollar anew.    This has led to some very nice activity in the silver and gold pits, with the kind of flagging (bullish) that makes my heart grow fond.

I will likely add here and there to my hordes today, and will let you know if I do.  Right now I am enjoying strong moves in SLW, EGO, IAG and my various ETF plays, including the doubles AGQ and NUGT.

As always, if you want to toe-dip, start with the basics — GDX, GDXJ and SIL.  Highest octane is in the crazy silvers, like my favourites AG and EXK.  Today and for the next few days, SSRI should also be moving to make up for the plungerooni (overdone) yesterday.

Lastly, don’t forget about the “rare earth” plays like QRM and AVL for added dollar inflation pop.
My best to you all on this day of honour.

____________

Comments »

___________________

Things just keep getting more and more peachy around here.   On Friday, as I revealed yesterday, I threw caution to the wind and grabbed a whole lot of miner and double ETF picks that I had a feeling would make a strong move this week.  Today I was rewarded for that Erroll Flynn-ish type of move not only by a strong move in the precious metal sector, but also a bonus Eagle loss to a team they should never lose to if they believe themselves contenders this year (sorry Bears fans).

Especially not at home.

That puts my Giants three games ahead of the “Dream Team” Beagles, albeit with three tough games still ahead of them (and one in the rear view mirror in Gilette Stadium -heh!).  There’s more than serendipity at work here, methinks…

Could it be the Turkey Gods are blessing us all in advance?  It’s quite possible, especially when you look at the evidence available in the $HUI — an index which up to now has been quite vexatious to those of us who trade “the original coin.”

But look what the weekly is telling us now… not only are we breaking out over old levels, but it looks like this time we’ve ample time left in the run.  Check out these stochastics on the $HUI weekly —

 

That’s right, we’re near the famed “$610 Maginot Line,” again, and with adequate momentum to take those levels out with aplomb.  And we all know that breakouts beget breakouts, don’t we?

So grab your favorite gold miner or royalty financier (RGLD!) or even multi-varied ETF (GDX, SIL, GDXJ), because I think there’s more fun to come.

I may even grab some NUGT tomorrow if I can squeeze some time out of my fire extinguishing duties.

No rest for the weary Gentlemen (and Ladies).   I will see you all around the coyne shoppes.

Best to you all.

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pF-oWhD2itE 450 300]

_________________________

Please don’t let the dollar rip your guts out over the next couple of day, eh?  As I’ve mentioned I’ll be outta heah (ovah heah) for the next five days or so.   I should be able to log on with no trouble when I get to my destination, but I make no promised.  I’ve been through enough travel hell to know never to take anything for granted.

That said, I’m headed to such a civilized place that they spell it “civilised” out there, what? Carry on old bean, stiff upper lip, bite on a hard scone and all that.

The miners rebounded today nicely, but I’m not yet convinced we’re done with dollar turbulence.  That said I am hoovering, ever so patiently, and ever so slowly, on select lots of RGLD, BAA, SLW, EXK and AG, not to mention filling in the chinks with plenty of GDX, GDXJ and SIL.   If you don’t want to mess around with individual stocks, those three are your best bets for the mining sector.

I really believe the $HUI might revisit $560 again.  If it does, and we get the bounce I expect there, that’ll be your green light.  Best to you all, and I’ll try to check in again over the next few days.

_____________________

 

Comments »