Diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeee!!!
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Forget about your regular run of the mill “Denningerite-Goldman Sachs” conspiracies, I think there are heavier machinations afoot.  

Let’s take this Old Dominion win over the weurthies (sic) at Golden Domer Land ( that’s “Notre Dame” to you foreign debils).  Obviously someone has spiked the Gatorade in the Southern bracket, as fellow Big East weurthy Villanova needed overtime to dispatch that grab-bag of hirsute and unlaundered ruffians from Robert Morris University (I believe they are the largest providers of “Executive Assistants” in the Western hemisphere).  

No one needs to sniff around long to realize this is all just another  “pad the Duke run” conspiracy, no doubt cooked up by the seminal communist claque at CBS Sports and the villainous Koach Kryszistikanmstlplx of the Permanantly Punched-off Mustachio Society.

As a result of my suspicions, I fear greatly for my Louisville Cardinals, who will play the Bezerkley Cal Bears tomorrow night in their respective Tournament tip off game.   In fact, I have even warned them– via multiple flash texting– to beware the laudanum crystals that will no doubt be sprinkled upon their Soup & Salisbury Steak pre-game meals.    

This would be no coincidence, mind you, as their next opponent is the hated Duke Blue Devils, should both teams advance to the round of 32.   And while the Pukies (sic) are already the beneficiaries of an ill-gained #1 Seed, they will likely take every nefarious precaution short of chain-sawing off the legs of their next opponents and calling it a “freak escalator mishap.”  (And only because they did that last year and don’t want to risk the usual “too coincidental” inquiry). 

I am hoping of course that there is a God in the Heavens who will caffeinate Duke primary opponent Arkansas Pine Bluff’s Cocoa Puffs tomorrow morning and make them the first #16 seed to knock off a #1 in T0urnament history.    The hated Blue Devils are well deserving of the honour (sic).

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In stock land, it looks like I got out of the rest of those June $11 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls just in time last night ($5.45) , as it seems stocks are finally going to head into a cycle low here, with the PM miners leading the charge.     Of course I kept 30 of the original 240, just for “esses and geegles.”    I also got rid of the final 60 June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $7.55 this morning as well.

Last, I dumped another 1,000 shs of [[AGQ]] at $57.94 at the open this morning.  I retain a final 1,000 shares out of the original 4k. 

I also dumped 8k of the Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] at @ $2.19  with my thanks and a promised steak dinner to brother “Rage in the Cage” , who put me onto this neat little fiduciary a couple of weeks back.  I retain 12k shares for the “free cash money” heck of it.

One last peculiarity I will point out, and take it as you will…

 Despite the pullback in PM stocks, the price of gold has held rather well, and the dollar can only hiccup higher over Grecian death rattling ( [[uup]] up about 17 cent today).   Note also, however, that the “King of the Transports,” a.k.a., “The Mighty Big Brown,” United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] is enjoying a renaissance in price movement it has not seen since before the 2008 “Year of Black Ddeath.”  

Charles Dow calls out to you from the grave, citizens… will ye listen?

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UPDATE:  GO YE MURRAY STATE RACERS!!   Beat those South’n Commodore Vanderbilt Goofs!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=it-RXp0T2TA 450 300]

Cuter  than Bing, no?

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I’ll have you know, the direct translation of “too ra loo ra loo rah” is “Get drunk, you Irish monkey, and buy stocks.”

Here’s hoping my good friend M. Le Docteur de la Fly, who is resoundingly French on all days save this one, will comply.

Why?

Well, it seems the tell-tale market indicator, the BKX, has broke the shilelegh (sic) out, and wants to take the rest of the market with it.   Everyone with an ounce of Galway joostice (sic) in him knows that means the market wants to rip.  

Want proof?   Here’s a shot of Jamison’s and a chart for ye to consider in your bear suit:

Will we have a pullback?  Sure, most likely.   And I will likely lighten a bit more tomorrow, as I did today, with my Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls, [[GDX]] calls and [[AGQ]] sell off, all at a tidy profit, mind you.   But I haven’t sold a drop of BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] or even Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] as I think the banks are for real here.

You see, the dollar has begun it’s move back down to the $78.50 or so level, and that’s going to be tough love for those of bearish persuasion going forward, even after our expected pullback.  

As a matter of fact, you might even think of adding to your [[TBT]] because Ben as much said he’s all for inflation today, that crazy bearded leprechaun of questionable heritage.  

I’m hoping all my fellow Irishman will lay down their “dukes” (sic) and join me in a pint of Guinness (and some Diageo plc (ADR) [[DEO]] ? ) this glorious day.  Celebrate our heritage, get a little drunk, get a little long.

It’s easy.

Erin go Bragh!

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“When a Mere Ass-hat Just Won’t Do”

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Before I talk about this Disco Ball Market, I want to take a second to explain why I love this country and I love going to work every day, despite the imminent Tsar Bomba of Damocles hanging over this economy thanks to the near-brain dead or simply evil (your pick) statist government with which we’ve been collectively saddled.

You see my line of work brings me into contact with blindingly smart people every day.   And not just smart people, like your average egghead dufus at State U., but smart ambitious fellows not unlike Le Monsieur Le Docteur de Le Fly.   People who want to actually do and create things in a clever and efficient fashion that no one has considered before.

It gives me such hope, you see.   (Aside: Can I use that word, or has it been wholly discredited like the otherwise once-honorable “liberal?”)  

Anyway, it gives me hope for this benighted land, that we might still have the IP to make it “on to the next,” as Jay-Zee would say.   These are the people that are continuing to create value every day, even in the worst of market circumstances.    And here I am,  just lucky enough to stumble into them every now and then, and maybe lend them a hand along the way.

Without getting  too deep into specifics, let me proffer this example of  the young man I met  this morning…

   This guy used to be in plain vanilla big project software consulting.   Serendipitously, or unluckily depending upon your tolerance for such things, many of his clients were large state governments.   You know the drill if you’ve been exposed — this is a client base characterized by horrendously long sales cycles, diffident bureaucracy, inefficient and/or politically-driven decision making — you know the drill.   The biggest net positive to that kind of customer base is that it’s magnificently sticky, if perhaps only by dint of inertial motion (thanks Newton).  

You’re probably saying “so what? — there’s a myriad of private sector gov’t suppliers out there, and they all sell for about 5.0x cash flow and maybe 0.75 to 1.0x sales.”   Big whoop, right?

   Well, that’s where the innovation I so love comes into the picture.    This young man came to realize, via quiet hard analysis and slow revelation, that the value he could extract from his customer is so valuable to the outside world, that he can afford to pay them and himself, and still make four to five times the margins he was originally making in his original model.

Think of that for a second.   He can afford to  pay his clients to allow him to do what he does, which also happend to be a value added, money-saving service to them.   You think that’s going to drive some demand for his products, maybe?

I love my job.  God Bless America, and screw Damocles while You’re at it.

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This Disco Ball Market is turning and turning and sparkling and sparkling, and it’s even worse on my poor M. Le Fly’s brain than the chemical laser-krunk, electro-youtube sonic Ecstacy-Assist “the kids” are replacing Gloria Gaynor with these days.

Sometimes I feel like one of those “lucky ones” of the generation X+ who were too young for Viet Nam, but too old for the Gulf Wars,  but replacing those armed conflicts with the twin piers of “Disco” and “Electronica.”   Much like the tenets of war, the universal deficiencies of bad club music remain eternal.

One is driven to speculate as to whether the Spartans and Etruscans had to winnow their young from the atonal lull of the thumping lyre.  Better than warring with the Athenians, I guess…

Watch the dollar.   If it breaks down, we will continue up.   However, today’s action in gold and silver seem to be signalling, if weakly, that we’ll have a pullback here.   I may lighten on some of my calls, at least temporarily.  

In the mean time, the banks BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , KeyCorp [[KEY]] , and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] and my favourite (sic) L.E.D.  techs, Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and especially Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] look very strong, telling me this is not an “about to plunge” market, no matter the sweaty-palmed Denninger-types’ trepidations. 

Please also remember to take any spare change lying around in the cushions and apply them to a short of ArvinMeritor, Inc. [[ARM]] , so I may defeat mine righteous enemee (sic), CA, and proceed to the Elite Eight.  

Thanks in advance.

Update:  The real thang, yo’ —

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBR2G-iI3-I 450 300]

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Krull Leaves the Poker Game for a Quick Smoke Break
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Up 3% yesterday, even with all my hedges still in place, I must bow to the volcanic power of the precious metal rebound we experienced yesterday.

That doesn’t mean I’m abandoning my post on the 12th slippery rung of the main municipal sewer — the cosy seat next to the extrusion pipe but before the extrusion weld.   No, I’m still expecting a pullback today from yesterday’s Ode to Joy/Bunny Rabbit Massacre, unbounded. 

But the dollar (seen on the intraday as [[UUP]] or DXY) still continues to fall off here, and I’m wondering if we will ever get back up to that $80.10 or so pivot (on DXY)  I’d talked about as a trigger for another downturn last week.    I won’t be surprised, however, if we get another exogenous shock out of Davos, the PIIG’s or even President Obama’s recently unveiled near $4 trillion FrankenBudget. 

For now, I’m liking what works on the rebound, and thus far, it’s the fast movers of the junior golds like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and “the X-factor” — Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .   I also like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] of course, and Lindsay made a nice rec yesterday on the nicely pivoting Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] .

Of course silver is my true Tsar Bomba play in 2010, as it has been lagging the 2009 move in gold, along with platinum [[PTM]] , Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and palladium [[PAL]] .   Right now, in this first updraft, I like the double silver play [[AGQ]] a whole lot, and of course my core group of miners — in order — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , [[SVM]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and the lowly Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

All of these should be gnawed at opportunistically, as one would a bread wheel from the boulangerie, deep under the steam pipes of Manhattan.

I am still not taking down my hedges (in  [[SPY]] puts and [[QID]] and [[BZG]] ), and will happily bleed money on them here, as that insurance policy has served me well these last weeks.   Nothing could please me more than taking them down at lower balances, however, as that would mean all of my other plays are working well, as they did yesterday.

Don’t forget about the banks, here, as they’ve never really suffered much of a pullback, even in last week’s deluge.  Today, they seem to be leading the red dogs, which may turn out to be an opportunity for you.   Again, I like BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] for the longer term hold, Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] for the Ohio pop, and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] for the lotto play (stay small and remember, it’s only a game).

Best to you all, First Amendment scholars.

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Busy, Busy, Busy.   Yeah, you got nothing today, but I threw some calls down in The PPT, because theys mah peoples, and theys payin’ the bills.  So sorry.

I bot some  more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls — 40 more June $11’s at $4.30.   That brings my tote up to 160 in that class.   Yeah, there might be some more pain in this name, and in my other precious plays, but you know what?

I’m not going to get overly concerned. 

 I’m shrugging off this “Volker scare.”

I say here for you — it’s bullshit.   Rhetoric.  Albumen.

   I knew we’d have some sell-off and the PM’s were way ahead of the rest of the market in this cycle decline, which means that they will likely be done before the rest is too.

I’ve been adding tons here on Friday and today, and as I mentioned I was actually up at Friday’s close.    Not so much today, but that’s only because my hedges “gave back” some of Friday’s wins.    Those are the kind of losses I can accept.  I consider that the equivalent of paying off Sal & Tony for “protection.”    If we go bull green from here, I’ll be happier than Harpo at the Thai Masseuse convention, and I’ll sell those hedges at a loss, if necessary.

But now, they stay, even as a I load up on 4k more [[EXK]] at $3.45.    2k more IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] at an unfortunate $14.31 (again, I’m not worried), and 400 more Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] at $44.52.

Between today and Friday, I’ve been loading up on PM’s and banks.   I didn’t add any banks today, but I think I may take a third swipe at Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] and BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] .   One other playah that I bot last week is Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] .  I may add this one as well tomorrow.

I may  look at coming out of my final [[GDX]] and [[SPY]] hedges tomorrow as well, as they are option hedges.   My only other remaining hedges besides those are [[QID]] and [[BGZ]] , which I will likely hold until I’m sure we’ve turned back to the green.

Make no mistake, I’m extremely bullish on the continuing inflation trade here.  Bernanke will remain, and so too will the continuing flog of the dollar.   Play that game by buying select equities and precious metal bangers.

Bless you all, and I mean that.

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No, it’s not what you think.   I’m talking about  a jump to value ovah heah.  

Getting ready to add even more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] this morning at $14.87 (announced on The PPT yesterday) as I have a longer term buy-stop in at that level.   Also liking Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at these ridiculous levels as well.  

The one thing that’s great — and horrifying – -about these PM miner markets is that  you are never really “out of the game” until that final ridiculous blow-off top.   There’s almost always an opportunity to grab shares cheap thanks to the high volatility, and more important, low float aspect of these markets.

I am hoping for a nice hard sell off into the 10 o’clock time frame.  Hard enough to make one’s kidney’s seize up like they’ve got hold of a spot of rancid hot cawfee.  

I want to buy into that fear this morning.   I am putting on the armor of steely determination now.   

For your bennies, I’ll be looking at the gems — not only the above mentioned two, but Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and yes, Chanci, even [[SVM]] for the first time for me.

Don’t forget also about the bank stocks I’ve mentioned — BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] , PNC Financial Services [[PNC]] , Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] (watch for earnings on this last), and the two LED sweeties — Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] .

Last, note the ags are again on the march.  My favourites here are The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] and of course, the Franken-Corn Friends at Monsanto Company [[MON]] .

I hope to have more for you later….  Hit ’em low and hard.

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