Trust Ye Not the Evile Clamme!

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Well, wasn’t that a refreshing sell off we had today?  Will we bounce from here?   Likely, at some point.  But I wouldn’t get overly excited about it.   In fact, I’d take any rebound in the next couple of days as a welcome loosening of the steer-making device from around your sensitive bits, and lighten, lighten, lighten.   

You want to be as light as a Capezio-wearing chorus line extra dangling from a dirigible.   Because ladies and gentlemen, the Clamme  is not your friend!   The Clamme is the friend of men standing in bomb shelters poring over ruined real estate portfolios, but he is no friend of the genial Speculator. 

As good as it feels to revel in the seemingly endless supply of bubblicious liquidity flowing from the Helicopter du Clamme, you must believe that the other side of that euphoria is the long weightless drop down the elevator shaft, to which there is only one end for your portfolio.

Ker-freakin’-splat!

I love the Russell 2000 as a market indicator.   Are you going to pay attention to the Dow 30, instead?

A 10-12% sell-off will bring us back to the $72-73.00 area, where I see pretty solid support.   The 200-day EMA should rise to the $70 level here in the next couple of days, and that will offer additional support.   I don’t expect a bloodbath, yet, but why watch your portfolio shrink, or worse, get thrown in the chowder bowl when we will have larders full of opportunity in the coming weeks and months?

Patience.   It’s a most difficult virtue, but one that will pay literal dividends in the weeks ahead.

I added to all my market hedges today — SDD, SDS, and QID, to salutory effect.   I also off-loaded a small amount of MVG that I had not hedged, and sold off another quarter of my FTK holdings.  Tomorrow, I shall likely purchase some TWM and perhaps even some TZA, which I have held off on purchasing due to it’s razor-sharp canabalistic capabilities.

Best to you all, Clamme Diggers.

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Helpless Feeb Trading, FTW! (Or Not)
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I don’t usually go for the whole gloating thing, as it’s unkind, and generally karmically challenging.

I’ll make an exception this one time, however.  Call it karmic recognition if you will.   Much to the cognitively challenged’s chagrin, [[SLV]] is triumphant once again, after many weeks of representing second place to Canadians and other luge and curling aficionados.

The dollar index, [[DXY]] , is back below $80.00, currently trading at $79.86. It’s proxy [[UUP]] is below a significant (61.8%) intermediate term Fibonacci line ($23.52), and looks to be heading towards $23.13, it’s next support.

Many of my compatriots are short or heavily in cash. Small traders have one of the lowest call positions recorded since last March’s lows. People cannot believe this market can go up. In short– It’s a basket weaver’s market, and I’ve just finished a fine set of cane-rush patio chairs.

I’d like [[AGQ]] to stay above $55.02, and [[EXK]] to stay above $3.36 first, and then $3.61 second.   Near term target is $3.76, but I’m holding for the long term.  [[SVM]] is approaching a very important 61.8% fib line at $6.99, and if it should break it (I don’t think it will on first try, frankly) then it should run right to it’s recent highs at $8.00.    Last, [[PAAS]] is good to go over $22.35, and it’s next stop should be in the $26.50 recent high area.

My favourite, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is labouring (sic) on low volume here, and needs to get above $15.95 in order to “release” to the recent highs of $17.80.   It bears watching, while bears are watching.

Here’s what’s giving me hope for a bullish continuation even amidst the ursinity of my peers… The Russell (I use RUT or [[IWM]] to track it) is breaking out ahead of the [[SPY]] .     If the [[DJT]] and it’s representative United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] can continue north and break above recent highs, then I will have further comfort.

Until then, please be sure to purchase plenty of technical trading books.  Those authors need to eat, too, you know.

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I got good news and bad news on the market  front, ovah heah.   The good news is, I’m going to show you my Russell 2000 chart ($RUT), which I’ve been using to parse the market since before the first bank meltdowns of late 2007.   You see the Russell, even more than the [[SPY]] in my opinion, gives you a better view of the “overall market” than any other index.    You can also check it’s volume using [[IWM]] it’s ETF.

I find that the Fibonacci retracement lines work very well in analyzing the Russell as well.   Take a look at where where we found ourselves this morning:

As you can see we are bumping up against one of the stronger Fibonacci “Golden Ratio”  (inverse) lines at 38.2% (the other being the actual Golden Ratio of 61.8%).   I expect that means at least some sort of rest stop here.   That said the “good news” is that 13-34 week cross which implies further bullishness should it continue.   As I have attested, and I think even Woodshedder has agreud (sic) — the 13-34 week “golden cross” is one of the most significant bullish or bearish indicators out there.   

Let me know what you think, but don’t be surprised if I disregaurd (sic) your thoughts in a cavalier, dismissive way, whilst inserting snuff up my nose, all atop my “knee-controlled” white charger.

One other point — some of these biotech unpinned hand grenade small craps are pulling back a little today, and since I sold off 2/3rds of my [[HEB]] -brews yesterday, I may dip back into the Red Sea to rescue some more pedestrians today.    I also like [[IMGN]] here (thanks Henry!), but will not add more as I am “full up” to the brim with it.    [[SVA]] also bounced nicely off it’s trendline today, but I’d wait to see if it drops back to $2.90 before taking a chance on any of it.    The last insanity is [[CTIC]] which has been a darling of The PPT, along with [[BEE]].   I think the latter looks a lot more promising, but have not gotten any yet. 

As always, I recommend you stay as far away from the above paragraph as you would a Mossad Hit Squad with your name at the top of their list.   There’s no question your purchase of any of the above will warrant a quick waterboarding, coupled with a full-torso Obama campaign sticker “body bind”, finally finished off in a late night rowboat assisted drop into The Great Salt Lake, where you will bob for hours, your pitiless cries ignored by disinterested Mormon seagulls.

On the precious metal front, as I suspected, more pullback, but the metal rustlers cannot disguise all — [[PTM]] looks strong here, comparatively.   Slow and steady wins the race, old boy.   Best to you all.

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Update: I bot 2k more HEB to take with me across the unpaved Red Sea @$3.10.

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