_____________________________________________
The dollar finally bounced today, and in a big way.  As mentioned in my last post, the longer term dollar trend line held at just below $77.00 on the $DX-Y Index.  Gold and silver also bounced today after being somewhat bludgeoned the day prior.  Certainly this drama prattles on in more curious and curiouser fashion.

Like my friends Gary and Le Monsieur, I want to believe the precious metal bull is done consolidating and is ready to take off.  However, today’s considerable bounce in the dollar and certain things I’m seeing in the $HUI Goldbugs chart continue to give me pause.

Luckily, I think the question will resolve itself soon, as the $HUI is approaching serious resistance on the daily charts.  This resistance, if broken, will give me all the assurance I need to jump back in the market long and strong:

Now, I’m not one for advocating dandruff-shampoo formations, but the combination of approaching resistance, and the 50-day EMA give me enough pause to wait one or two more days to see how this all shakes out.  Again, if this is the C-wave finale, we’ll have plenty of room to banque large coin before it’s run its course.   The good news is the 200-day remains a rock solid buy-point, as it has throughout most of this long bull run for the miners.

On a happier note, today one of loyal reader Teahouse’s favourite stocks — FRG — got swallowed up by a hungry major, again illustrating why we like to buy and hold (even in diminished capacity) the junior miners in this bull instead of the larger miners. 

 In an increasingly active M&A market, you want to be holding buyout upside, not acquisition upside for the simple reason that,with the days of Cisco and Fifth Third Bank’s long acquiring sprees behind us, there’s just not much upside to owning an acquiror.  And in owning the juniors, you know there’s always a chance of even a crappy company waking up to a 25-50% price pop.   Play the odds that lie in your favor, I say.

In honor of Teahouse’s alert (I owned FRG but had never blogged about it until Employee 8 brought it up here), I will also feature another of his favourites tonight, MVG — a nice little silver miner.  He gave me some crap for selling the $12.50 February calls a couple of weeks back when I was hedging the portfolio, but that trade has worked out, and I still own all the MVG I had purchased down in the $6-$7 range as a result (I’ve since covered the calls at short pennies).

I thing MVG is not far from a bottom on this pullback, if it has not bottomed already. Moreover, it’s a relatively low risk play from this point on:

Congrats to Teahouse and all my other fellow FRG holders, and let’s get out and get the next one.  They’re coming for sure.

_________________

Comments »

 

______________________________

You are skyying about in your chromium zeppelin, dropping empty champagne bottles from 1,500 meters onto the heads of unsuspecting proles below.  You glance across the quarterdeck and there is your love, half a glass of Dom in her silk gloved hand and the light of Christmas in her eyes.  The finest plum-rose gloss  adorns her full, beestung lips, which are parted ever so slightly in a laughter that  sets her page boy curls dancing in the silver streaked moonlight.

You haven’t a care in the world.   You’ve made millions off the sins of The Bernank, Slayer of the Little Man.  What’s more, the largest part of your fortune is stored in bullion bricks of various heavy metal denominations, lodged safely in your Rocky Mountain fastness.

But some latent foreboding nags– ever so gently — even as you pop the next cork on the desert-dry bubbly, sending that mushroom cap deep out into the lowering cumulus…  You know now that the small plebs, the racers, the gimcracks, the punters who have swelled your gains are finally beginning to pay tribute to your cosseted hordes.  No longer are they satisfied with the quick buck of the latest Sanford Bernstein-driven consumer good craze, or the lures of the Autumn Needham Tech Conference.

No, they now make claim on the Precious, and it’s time to grip the gunwales and be ever so wary.  Behold the gathering storm which will afford us opportunity, if played ever so skillfully, like a minuet for harpsichord, parsed out on a tight-rope.   First, a lesser known blazer, FRG, serves to illustrates our existential dilemma:

This overbought condition is endemic in our chosen sector, fellow aviators.   Note another favourite which perhaps has become too much so in recent weeks:

  EXK will continue to provide gains, I’m convinced of it.  It may even get to $8.00 before 2010 has breathed its last.   I also believe it will retrench rather severely, however, andf quite possibly as far as my target of $6.00.   

 As a result I have taken almost half of my holdings off the table at prices between $6.90 and today’s close ($7.30).  If you have been with me from the low $3 range,  your over 100% gains should be suitable for framing right now.  The choice, however is yours.

I shall see you all across the scudding skies.

________________________

Comments »

This is good…

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wty7974IKg&feature=related 450 300]

This might be even better….

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8XVMU5obkc&feature=related 450 300]

——————————————————————————————–

C’mon California!  The Giants have done the hard part and dispatched the Crackboys for you.   This leaves the NFL safe for Niner and Charger domination.   Who knows?  Even the Raiduhs are showing signs of life…

Now all you have to do is get rid of Barbara Boxer and reclaim one of the greatest states in the Union.

I know you can do it.  God speed.

__________________________

If you were on The PPT today, you saw that I added a tonne of metal back to my portfolio.   AGQ, EXK, GSS, IVN, RGLD, and even FRG were all added at favorable prices.

I also got rid of the last of my hedges at a slight profit. 

Last, I added to my PBR, my favorite long term earl play.   Yes it’s Brazilian, and someday it will be worth a Brazilian bucks to my family.

That is all.   Keep watching that dollar.   My best to you, especially those people in Kelly-Phonia, who can once again give direction to the U.S. with the right move here.

Comments »

_____________________

It’s not been a bad ride for ANV since we last talked about it, has it?  Well, all good things must come to an end… or at least a temporary pause, no?

And I expect that’s what we’ll be coming up on in ANV as early as tomorrow.  I won’t be selling any of my Smaug-horde, but I may very likely sell the calls in the high $21 dollar range.   If you got on board when I alerted you to the 200-day touch you’re up over 35% right now, and I should think that’s not a bad ride for less than a month.

You can see we’re approaching some pretty serious oversold levels here in this recent chart:

I will likely do the same for SLW, EGO and IAG as well, and I will reduce my AGQ levels too.   Some of my smaller positions, like FRG (also a huge winner today) and RBY may get trimmed as well, but most I will just leave to gestate further in the womb of this great gold bull, which I think will resume soon after this pull-back.

BAA — the chronic underperformer, comes to mind as a something about which Mother Mary whispered right in front of me, “Let it Be, son, Let it Be.”

Or maybe that was the Raven quothing “Nevermoooooaah!” 

Whatever.  If you really have the hankerin’ to buy something tomorrow, why not try that perennial Fly favourite and crusher of all things Broadcom — ENTR?   Note, you may recall (and certainly the fine gentlemen and ladies of The PPT know this) that I added to my pile on this the other day at the retest of the original breakout?

Not that there’s anything to all that crazy chart-chompin’ stuff.

Best to you all.

Comments »

 

_________________________

The pot is beginning to burble over to the extent that I believe we are approaching one of those periods where even the crappy little small time gold and silver miners will begin to shoot golden fountains of coyne (sic) out of their arses.  Tonight I offer two to hold until the 4th of July, at minimum.   In the penumbra of the rockets red glare, there ye shall banque.

I have a bunch of these in my portfolio both as “option” investments and as long term plays, and they are usually characterized by their “less than $10” price range.  

Like an undiscovered vintage of small California vineyard Cabernet, however, these little gems tend to be “unearthed” and then the real fun begins.  I remind you here, and tell you later — SLW, EGO, ANV, and even IAG were all sub $10 stocks less than 18 months ago.    I believe these two juniors, and perhaps also GSS, possess similar characteristics.

First, my current favourite (sic) in the small popper category is the lovely FRG.  After announcing a measurable find in their most recent presser on Monday, they have been somewhat “off to the races.”   I think the release was just an excuse for the baby to rally.  She’s been waiting a while:

You probably remember this chart from late April on my site… well now you can see it is on it’s way to new rocket heights.

The second name is NGD, one of the famous “Three N’s” along with NG and NXG.  I like them all, but NGD seems the most promising for the next month or so.  Have a look at the weekly:

(Shit!)

It’s just breakout out above long term resistance at $6.50 and you see my target of $9.50 in the short term.  

I’m holding it for much more than that, but that’s the way I roll.

Best to you all.

Keep watching the best of the best, too — SLW, ANV, EGO, IAG, PAAS, EXK, XRA, MVG, CDE, even GG and AUY.    If you want ETF’s there’s GDX, GDXJ and SIL for the miners and GLD and SLV for the solid stuff.

Live long, prosper.

_______________________________

Comments »

From Your Biggest Fan!
______________________________
Bon soir, mon ami, et Bon Anniversaire! I hope this evening finds you croque’d to the gills on your favourite Bordeaux or Gamay Beaujolais, if you will.

For my part, I intend to eat multiple sandwiches tomorrow in your honour (sic), as it seems like we may have to withstand another drawdown if this afternoon’s last minute plummet and tonight’s weak futures review hold course.

On the good news front, [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] hung on and look to be bouncing with more relative strength than the rest of the market. Some previously beaten down junior minors looked like heroe as well, including [[XRA]], [[GSS]], [[NGD]], [[FRG]] and my favourite, [[ANV]].   Note how ANV kept that uptrend intact on the weekly:

THe daily is less pretty, but still hanging in there:

Keep your eye on the quality, and on that weekly chart.  If we break that line, we will likely see further consolidation.  Right now, both gold and silver are higher even as stock futures look weak.   At some point we will likely see complete separation in trading behaviour.

Best to you all, mes amis.

Comments »