(Or not?)
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Today, it seems everyone’s getting all excited about earl, that black gold concoction that keeps the Enviroweenies up at night dreaming up new ways to keep you off your Harley or leafblower of choice.   But don’t be fooled by it’s recent price appreciation.  It’s really only doing that to piss off my friend, Mr. Cain Thaler, of the Ascendent Dollar Theory.

What’s really going on has nothing to do with Israelis and Iranians playing tit-for-tat on the atomic apocalypse scene, nor does it even have anything to do with whether or not the Keystone Oil Pipeline gets approved by President “Jobs? Whattaya mean, Jobs?” Obama. 

No, it’s not even about the price of earl at all.  In fact, here in the real world universe, the price of earl hasn’t moved even one bit from yesterday.   What’s moved is the price of the dollar.  And it’s not just the price of the dollar versus other crappy fiat currencies, either.  It’s the price of all commodities versus the dollar.

Since the beginning of  November, the CRB Commodity index is up almost 7% from it’s October low at $291.75.   What’s more, that low was almost a perfect 61.8% fibonacci retrace of the May 2010 low at $247.16 to the April 2011 high of $374.48! 

Imagine all that stuff bottoming while the dollar was still ascending?  And now, it seems the dollar is retreating off what could very well be a double top formation.

Are you getting excited yet?  

More charts later….

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