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Timing the Flip

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVAD8Zl5ngg 450 300]

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Looking over my charts this evening (no shoulder devils or broken elevators), it seems that while the price of gold is doing the Heschel Walker down the field, the metal’s miners are lagging behind like a fat man with smoker’s hack.  This gives me some pause and has me with my finger on the trigger.   Despite minor wins today in AUQ, AUY and ANV, most miners that didn’t start with “A” were having trouble addressing the field.   Moreover, silver struggled at the $40 line and gave it up by the end of the day.  As a result, despite gold being up nicely, I was still down in my miner-saturated portfolio almost 2% overall today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen this play before (gold up, silver and PM miners lagging) and I don’t intend to stick around to see what comes of it again.  I will likely sell some portions of my miners tomorrow morning and then hedge the rest with sold calls.  I  will also launch the remainder of my  NUGT and DGP (what remains of them) even as I’ll  likely hold on to my GLD and SLV positions for the duration,

I will then likely  spin some of the newly raised cash into a few rebound stock positions to take advantage of a bounce I feel certain shall finally come tomorrow as we test the depths of 1090 and perhaps lower.  I am again looking at QLD, TNA, EEM and possibly, quite possibly EDC again (very small ball!).

Be well and be wary, my friends.

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Greetings from Mosquitopia

Maine

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As I sit here inside my famous Maine homestead, on the end of a sea-bounded rocky egg surrounded by pines, raccoons, osprey, snowy egret, billions of tonnes of mesomorphic and granitic stone, and sluggish black mosquitoes as big as your head, know that I’m thinking of you all fondly.

Today I kayaked all the way out to a remote island in the middle of the bay with my two older sons and a cousin of theirs.  I was extremely proud to see them make it on what was a more arduous journey than we first conceived.  It sort of makes one feel all the tonnes and tonnes of extraneous food they are now consuming is going to some good use in the gradual addition of competent sinew and bone.  Be advised, however, the grocery bill on vacation, fueled by noshing and boozing adults and teenage boys exposed to the brisk northern air can look like the tally for a small air force base under battle ready conditions.

And that’s not even counting the “going out to dinner” tabs.   I think I am going to insist on summer jobs from here on out.

Don’t expect much from me this week, churlish churls.  I’ll  not be like the Monsieur le Fly, regaling you with tales of Amish cow-tipping and such.  No, you’ll be lucky to get the occasional report these next two weeks.  I don’t expect to be doing much in the market save banquing coyne (sic), as it seems the PM run is going to continue whether I’m in front of my screen or not.

I’ve given you several names over the last couple of weeks, and I think the small ones will provide much bang for the buck (AAU, BAA, CGR and BRD particularly).   There are a couple that I will be watching very closely, however, as their longer term chart patterns are appealing to me.  Let’s start with AUQ, which I haven’t spoken much about:

I think there will be some pullbacks in the weeks ahead and I think these are your best bets, long term, on some kind of a retrenchment.  AUQ has just had an awesome consolidation period.   So has has the crazy Japanese Man, Yamana (AUY), which may have the biggest saucer pattern of the PM Renaissance Era.  Tell me you don’t see something happening here?

 

And it’s not like AUY’s chart’s indications couldn’t be any clearer…  in fact, I think in the end, you will see AUY do what RGLD is doing right now as we speak.  Do you own the Grandmama of them all?   If not, it’s not for lack of my nagging….

Be well, and don’t let the big ass black mosquitoes bite.

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Just Say the Word

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184&feature=related 450 300]

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Let’s face it, all the rocket ships I gave you over the last couple of days are now as egregiously overbought as Mrs. Fly’s Visa Card after a vacation in Paris.  I mean, that shit is panting.  It’s needs a new magnetic strip and make this next one indestructible titanium, please.

But enough japes about our wives spending habits.  What the hell is money good for anyway if you are not going to lay it out for your wife and children to dance through, mazurka-style?   And I’m here to talk about money and opportunity.

Those of you who were too timorous to take advantage of the earlier week’s outstanding pin action may be able to take a second spin at the wheel here in the very near future.  Almost everything is overbought on my RSI charts (as you will see) and even the $HUI is looking tired after some two weeks of glorious struggle with its support line.    You know about the Jacksonians — SLW, ANV, EXK, GDX, RGLD, etc., etc., and they should offer nice opportunities in the coming days as well.

But tonight’s study is going to be some noobs for the Noob community.  I have recently put some money into AXU (along w. le Monsieur), but I have not yet dabbled in AUQ or BRD.   I believe that may change in the next few days.   Here are my three charts, which detail my entry points. I begin with AXU:

And then AUQ:

And maybe my favorite of the three,  for the punning eventualities alone, “the BiRD” — BRD:

In the next week or so, I believe everyone will have heard, that the Bird is a word.

Best to you all.

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The PM Stock of the Decade

flying pig award

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First, let me tell you that I am a happy and contented boy this evening. You know this PM game.  Heck, even Le Fly asks me at times how I deal with the convulsions of this lightly traded, lightly regarded sector.  Sometimes it’s not very easy, as you all know.

But the irony remains.   Despite the tremendous, gut-wrenching, teeth swallowing, soul-crushing volatility of this sector, it’s the only one to be in a bull phase over the last ten years.   True, we got a serious “blip” when the whole market folded in late 2008, but that was truly a liquidity-driven event,  separate from the fundamentals of the space.  What’s more, that down-draft was the trading opportunity of a lifetime.  I still own a good portion of the SLW I picked up under $3.00, and that was just one of the gems I found abandoned on the ground in January-February 2009.  You know the story of the Jacksonians from May of that year, when I first started blogging.   Those positions are up hundreds of percent, and I had bought them months before.

Enough idle boasting about the past.   We’re talking about good feelings today, but we’ve endured scars together too.   We’ve undergone a dreadful PM pullback, one that cost me over 15% of my portfolio value, even with cash-outs.  But I’ve been waiting, very patiently, because I had no doubt this bull was not over by any means.  And today I think we can say that at least in the near term, “the coast is clear” for further miner purchasing.   And I plan to make up for lost time as well.

First, let’s see the good news on our friend Baby $HUI:

Given that many of my “in-house” miners– Jacksonians and high flyers like EXK and AG have rocketed up on an RSI basis in the past few days, I think it may not be the best time to buy tomorrow.  This is true as well of my PM Stock of the Decade XG,  or Extorre Gold Mines. which was spun off from parent company Exeter Resources (XRA)  at the barely substantial price of $2. Yes, $2, back in late March of 2010.   Look at this beautiful company today, a scant 16 months later…

Look at the charts of the strongest Jacksonians and you will not even see the equal of XG.  It was the one precious metal stock in my entire portfolio that did not see a pullback of any substance over the last three months.   That in itself is significant, I believe.

In the meantime, do not be a horse’s ass and buy this tomorrow.  Clearly, it’s overbought, probably because it never got oversold, like it’s poor compadres.   I have indicated above the place where I’d like to add.  And yes, I already have a shitte tonne, but there’s always room for pie, right?

Most stuff is overbought here, but on the radar for tomorrow are some small jumpers — MGH, BRD, AUQ, NXG, CGU, AZK. I also added to my GPL and AXU hordes today.

Best to you all.

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