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Avast Mateys! It’s time to strike the main sail and deploy the twin outboard Mercuries, as Her Majesty’s Treasure Frigate, The H.M.S. Dollar-Dollar Bill, is taking on water and listing amidships!  Now is out time to pounce, Jag-you-are (sic) – style.

As I type, the dollar has broken below the crucial $82.00 “line o’ death” it’s been flirting with this last month, and fighting against even as all the stochastics began to show divergences marking an imminent change.  I think that change is here, and provided we finish the day below $82.00 (we are at $81.94 right now), I think we should be clear to fly until at least $80.70, which is the long term 50% fibonacci.  I do believe we should bounce then, just in time for a little September flattening while the dollar gets ready for a test of the 38.2% fib line down  below $79.00.   That should coincide with some nice seasonality for the precious, which always seems to be great offerings for the Turkey Gods, come November.

As I mentioned yesterday, I pushed the risk pedal with some AGQ, as silver was moving first.  However, I think today is gold’s catch up day, so if you want to add to your NUGT for a brief period, I wouldn’t gainsay that additional leverage.  As always, I recommend small and cautious with these instruments.  If you are seeking less “muss & fuss,” GDXJ is probably our most oversold ETF, as it got cranked the hardest in the recent “junior miner recession” this Spring.  It’s relatively overbought in the near term, but nonetheless a good bet to test it’s 200-day EMA here ($23.40) before pulling back.

A more speculative play is AUQ, which got trounced recently on bad numbers, but appears to be forming an island bottom on the daily chart, and has almost a full dollar gap to fill north of here.  Of course, the landscape is littered with these plays, and some of far higher quality.   Keep an eye on the 200-day EMA of gold bull index $HUI for a near-term guide.  It’s next resistance (top right of a daily cup) coincides with that 200-day mark, at about $465, and that should provide the near term stand by.

Happy near-term buccaneering to you all, me mateys!

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Things just keep getting more and more peachy around here.   On Friday, as I revealed yesterday, I threw caution to the wind and grabbed a whole lot of miner and double ETF picks that I had a feeling would make a strong move this week.  Today I was rewarded for that Erroll Flynn-ish type of move not only by a strong move in the precious metal sector, but also a bonus Eagle loss to a team they should never lose to if they believe themselves contenders this year (sorry Bears fans).

Especially not at home.

That puts my Giants three games ahead of the “Dream Team” Beagles, albeit with three tough games still ahead of them (and one in the rear view mirror in Gilette Stadium -heh!).  There’s more than serendipity at work here, methinks…

Could it be the Turkey Gods are blessing us all in advance?  It’s quite possible, especially when you look at the evidence available in the $HUI — an index which up to now has been quite vexatious to those of us who trade “the original coin.”

But look what the weekly is telling us now… not only are we breaking out over old levels, but it looks like this time we’ve ample time left in the run.  Check out these stochastics on the $HUI weekly —

 

That’s right, we’re near the famed “$610 Maginot Line,” again, and with adequate momentum to take those levels out with aplomb.  And we all know that breakouts beget breakouts, don’t we?

So grab your favorite gold miner or royalty financier (RGLD!) or even multi-varied ETF (GDX, SIL, GDXJ), because I think there’s more fun to come.

I may even grab some NUGT tomorrow if I can squeeze some time out of my fire extinguishing duties.

No rest for the weary Gentlemen (and Ladies).   I will see you all around the coyne shoppes.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dzpTFQR0Tg&feature=related 450 300]

Whatever happened to gay rap anyway?

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Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…

Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn.  True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action.  Note:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs.   This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here.   On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch.  I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL.   I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.

Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc.  Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.

As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction.   Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/user/LearnLiberty?v=KGPa5Ob-5Ps&feature=pyv&ad=7868481249&kw=capitalism%20freedom 450 300]

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That’s the only way you’ll pry my Skiffles from me, you Happy Days Are Here Again-singing termagents!

I got rid of one half of my TZA today, because I think we are oversold,  but will I dump my SKF in a similar manner?

I will not, as I believe lovely Skiffles is a longer term hold here.   Check the monthly to see what I believe we have in store for us in the coming months:

 

I believe we may bounce around a bit here, and $BKX may even get all the way back to it’s twelve month moving average in the $45 range.  More’s the better, I say,  as I’m still not even 50% invested in Skiffles, and this is going to be the death trade going forward, by the hammers of Thor and the jockstrap of Odin.

As you can see from this chart, I think a return to the lows is all but inevitable.  However, if you extrapolate the cascade in the similar fashion as the one that precipitated the 2009 lows… well, we’ve a ways to go.

Say it with me folks… extrapolate the cascade.   Extrapolate the cascade….. EXTRAPOLATE THE CASCADE!

(Okay, don’t shout it that loud, or your wife/girlfriend/mother will think you are having difficulties with the KitchenAid dishwasher.)

I have not sold any more gold and silver… yet.  As per my announcements in The PPT,  I did add another large dollop of AUQ at the close along with a Godzilla-sized addition (temporary, to be sure) to my XRA holdings.  I think there’s something going on there, although to be clear, I know not what.  Love that late-day pennant though.

My best to you all, as always.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

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I don’t know what’s going on, but it appears we’re about to be overrun by Viagra-popping leprechauns.   I’ve been buying some stuff back in drips and drabs but have been mostly waiting.  I added AUQ today and bought some more IPSU too. Both of those seem to be working well.  Meanwhile all the stuff I sold last week is doing aerobatics.  That’s annoying.

This is why we keep the core of course.  We don’t know what the bull is going to do… especially at these end stages.

I looked over all my charts tonight and there are quite a few looking like imminent breakouts.  These include AG, ANV, AUY, EXK and even — strangely — goofy old BAA.   Even GDX and GDXJ look pretty good, if you are into the ETF thing.   It’s our old friend the gold bug index $HUI that will provide the signal for me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of those names in the chart above should break out with the $HUI index here, but I wouldn’t worry about having to pile in.   There should be pullbacks on all of them after the breakouts, so you should have ample opportunity, if you want to be cautious.

Besides the above, RGLD and NGD are rather stretched here, and I will be offloading some likely tomorrow on any $HUI break.

Best to you all, and watch out for midgets with orange hair, green vests and knotty chestnut shilelaghs.  Those fuggers will wield those beatin’ sticks.

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How many times have I told you? You never, ever sell your crappy juniors, no matter how crappily they’ve been performing and lying on the ground like so much offal shoveled out of the stomach from a slaughtered steer.

Case in point… crappy old Northgate Minerals — NXG for you in the ADHD crowd — was bought out by Aurico Minerals today (AUQ). I have had NXG since the days when I told you all to buy “the three N’s,” or NG, NGD and NXG. Guess which one was the laggard of those three? Sure, it was crappy old NXG. But guess what? Crappy, poor performing juniors get bought out in bull markets. It’s uncanny.

Note in this weekly chart how we’ve been consolidating for 20-something months?  Something was going to come out of this saucer… and in a bull market did you really think it was going to be a breakdown?  That would be “betting on the silly.”  Never a high percentage play:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here’s the bonus move..  AUQ, the acquiror got beagle-slapped today.  With two beagles, even.

I know you are not going to believe me, but I actually own none of this stock at this time.  Why, I am not sure, because when I’d read the news today I was chagrined to think that although I was “winning” 28% in my NXG position, I was also losing 18.5% in my corresponding AUQ position.  But then, saints preserve us (and they do), I found out that I had zero AUQ in my system.  I am going to have to research my notes to find out why I do not.  Perhaps I toe-dipped and had a stop or something.  Truly, I do not know.

That leads to another serendipity, however…. Not a long while ago I posted the below chart on AUQ with a proposed entry.  I give you that chart with no revisions from the last time I drew it up.    See anything interesting?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My best to you all.

 

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