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Right now (12:20 am, July 29th), the dollar is below it’s support line of $82.00 at $81.993.   If this break holds, the next stop is $80, and MOOOOOOORRRE!

I am not going to screw around with any charts, as I am tired even unto my bones.   But don’t let this minor negligence keep you from the Christmas presents that you can gather and mail yourselves early, here in late July.

You know the recommendations.  If you don’t you can surely ask.   I’ve added to my hordes of SLW, ANV, EGO and IAG in the last two days, and tomorrow, I may even add some AGQ and EXK and PAAS because I think the silver exposure here could be even more bountiful than that of the gold.

Lastly, RGLD is right on on it’s 24-month EMA, and that’s held as support since the end of 2008.  That’s right, you read that right.   I have metric tonnes of this stock (like I do SLW), but I may even get some more myself tomorrow, as it’s some 15%  from its recent highs, and I think it, too, is done pulling back.

Caveat: there may be some more “down” to go, but I would be reluctant to bank on it.   These are rare times, and rare times often mean opportunity.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRWU2DysF30 450 300]

Showing this to the kids next time they don’t want to practice piano….

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I spoke to some of you on Fly’s blog the other day about how I’d had a conversation with a couple of traders whom I respect greatly, and whose collective net worths range into the billions.  They were/are considering moving their capital to some less confiscatory climes if the current regimes remain in power past November of 2010.   They said this bluntly and with little rancor.   The conversation, in fact, was for the most part calm and matter-of-fact.  A sense of resignation permeated the meeting.

“It is what it is” seemed the pre-dominant theme.

Many times I’ve said on this site that “capital is mobile.”   That phrase should be embossed in gold bas relief a top both Congressional Speaker’s podiums in both the House and Senate.   It’s a phrase all governments should take to heart, but ours most specifically because our success today as a global Colossus (dare I say “Atlas?” lol!) is due to the flight of both specie and intellectual capital to our shores.

What I mean is that governments unfriendly to capital, be they in Cuba, the Soviet Union, France, and for a time (ironically) Mainland China and India forced intellectual and physical capital off-shore into the arms of nations more friendly to its use and protection.   The most hallowed place, up until recently, was in our own  U.S.capital markets system.

Forget about “your tired and poor” — America became great on the backs of your innovative and rich, Asia and Europe.   Sorry, that’s just the way it’s been.   Thank our Constitution and integral respect for property rights for those wins.

The question each of us must ask, however, is can that win streak continue?  If the hard fought aspects of U.S. exceptionalism (not my term, but there it is) are gradually worn away, and we end up looking like just another 50% government oriented European state, will entrepreneurs, innovators and capital investors continue to be interested in our ability to create wealth?  Will that ability even remain a core competency in the 21st century?

Hard questions.   In the mean time, U.S. Congressmen dumber than even their mulish appearance would convey, are calling for the “freeing” of the Chinese currency.   This would be a disastrous turn of events, not just for us but for the Chinese themselves, who depend upon the artificial cheapness of their goods to feed the American consumer maw and thereby continue their growth in productivity and efficiency.   Break that equilibrium and the Chinese will suffer — temporarily… as they move from a Third to a First World country and begin becoming emboldened consumers in their own right.   Such an evolution for China — like post-war Japan’s — is all but inevitable.

As a result, the U.S. will be shorn not only of its cheap goods, but of its single most important financier — the Chinese Central Bank, who has been sterilizing our crap paper for years.   Soon that subsidization will end, and we will have to face the reality of our over-spending.   That day of reckoning will come all the sooner if we force the Chinese hand, as so many critically stupid Congressmen are now attempting to do.

The play this week (surprise, surprise) is the precious.   I bought another 2k of AGQ on Friday, and tried to add 2k more SLW, but I was busy that day and only got to call in the trade to my broker.   Unfortunately, I noted this evening there is no additional SLW in my account, so I will have to administer 40 lashes tomorrow morning to aforesaid sloth-like attendant.    My kingdom for competence!

Sigh.  

All the silvers and golds look good right now, but none more than my favourite (sic) gold ANV, which seems to be going to the stratos.    I continue to like EGO and also RGLD, especially after the recent Goldman capital raise.

Best to you all, and watch out for those rem-nem-bee’s.   They sting when aggravated.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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Yeah, there are a lot of silver eggs breaking out, but why not play off the Easter theme and show how [[PAAS]]  is bouncing off both excellent (and reliable) trendline and moving average support lines?

Look at these here eggs!

Silver is over $18.00 tonight and I expect more from [[SLV]] and [[AGQ]] tomorrow.  But in the long run, you are best off with the people that pull this beautiful, most useful metal out of the earth.

That’s Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[SVM]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]  and of course E8’s [[MVG]] — a most excellent call.

Gold will blow out in unison, but as always, Silver is the high beta T-Rex.  

Best to you all.

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Diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeee!!!
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Forget about your regular run of the mill “Denningerite-Goldman Sachs” conspiracies, I think there are heavier machinations afoot.  

Let’s take this Old Dominion win over the weurthies (sic) at Golden Domer Land ( that’s “Notre Dame” to you foreign debils).  Obviously someone has spiked the Gatorade in the Southern bracket, as fellow Big East weurthy Villanova needed overtime to dispatch that grab-bag of hirsute and unlaundered ruffians from Robert Morris University (I believe they are the largest providers of “Executive Assistants” in the Western hemisphere).  

No one needs to sniff around long to realize this is all just another  “pad the Duke run” conspiracy, no doubt cooked up by the seminal communist claque at CBS Sports and the villainous Koach Kryszistikanmstlplx of the Permanantly Punched-off Mustachio Society.

As a result of my suspicions, I fear greatly for my Louisville Cardinals, who will play the Bezerkley Cal Bears tomorrow night in their respective Tournament tip off game.   In fact, I have even warned them– via multiple flash texting– to beware the laudanum crystals that will no doubt be sprinkled upon their Soup & Salisbury Steak pre-game meals.    

This would be no coincidence, mind you, as their next opponent is the hated Duke Blue Devils, should both teams advance to the round of 32.   And while the Pukies (sic) are already the beneficiaries of an ill-gained #1 Seed, they will likely take every nefarious precaution short of chain-sawing off the legs of their next opponents and calling it a “freak escalator mishap.”  (And only because they did that last year and don’t want to risk the usual “too coincidental” inquiry). 

I am hoping of course that there is a God in the Heavens who will caffeinate Duke primary opponent Arkansas Pine Bluff’s Cocoa Puffs tomorrow morning and make them the first #16 seed to knock off a #1 in T0urnament history.    The hated Blue Devils are well deserving of the honour (sic).

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In stock land, it looks like I got out of the rest of those June $11 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls just in time last night ($5.45) , as it seems stocks are finally going to head into a cycle low here, with the PM miners leading the charge.     Of course I kept 30 of the original 240, just for “esses and geegles.”    I also got rid of the final 60 June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $7.55 this morning as well.

Last, I dumped another 1,000 shs of [[AGQ]] at $57.94 at the open this morning.  I retain a final 1,000 shares out of the original 4k. 

I also dumped 8k of the Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] at @ $2.19  with my thanks and a promised steak dinner to brother “Rage in the Cage” , who put me onto this neat little fiduciary a couple of weeks back.  I retain 12k shares for the “free cash money” heck of it.

One last peculiarity I will point out, and take it as you will…

 Despite the pullback in PM stocks, the price of gold has held rather well, and the dollar can only hiccup higher over Grecian death rattling ( [[uup]] up about 17 cent today).   Note also, however, that the “King of the Transports,” a.k.a., “The Mighty Big Brown,” United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] is enjoying a renaissance in price movement it has not seen since before the 2008 “Year of Black Ddeath.”  

Charles Dow calls out to you from the grave, citizens… will ye listen?

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UPDATE:  GO YE MURRAY STATE RACERS!!   Beat those South’n Commodore Vanderbilt Goofs!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=it-RXp0T2TA 450 300]

Cuter  than Bing, no?

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I’ll have you know, the direct translation of “too ra loo ra loo rah” is “Get drunk, you Irish monkey, and buy stocks.”

Here’s hoping my good friend M. Le Docteur de la Fly, who is resoundingly French on all days save this one, will comply.

Why?

Well, it seems the tell-tale market indicator, the BKX, has broke the shilelegh (sic) out, and wants to take the rest of the market with it.   Everyone with an ounce of Galway joostice (sic) in him knows that means the market wants to rip.  

Want proof?   Here’s a shot of Jamison’s and a chart for ye to consider in your bear suit:

Will we have a pullback?  Sure, most likely.   And I will likely lighten a bit more tomorrow, as I did today, with my Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls, [[GDX]] calls and [[AGQ]] sell off, all at a tidy profit, mind you.   But I haven’t sold a drop of BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] or even Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] as I think the banks are for real here.

You see, the dollar has begun it’s move back down to the $78.50 or so level, and that’s going to be tough love for those of bearish persuasion going forward, even after our expected pullback.  

As a matter of fact, you might even think of adding to your [[TBT]] because Ben as much said he’s all for inflation today, that crazy bearded leprechaun of questionable heritage.  

I’m hoping all my fellow Irishman will lay down their “dukes” (sic) and join me in a pint of Guinness (and some Diageo plc (ADR) [[DEO]] ? ) this glorious day.  Celebrate our heritage, get a little drunk, get a little long.

It’s easy.

Erin go Bragh!

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