Time Management

I’m at Borders right now reviewing 3 books on Time Management, so far, I like them all:

1. “The Procrastinators Guide to Success” by Lynn Lively
Tip: “Set aside hopelessness and other forms of negative thinking. Indulging in feelings of pity, woe , and poor little me moaning are self-indulgen luxuries that are not going to solve your problem. Plus it gets boring for you and others. Some things just are, and you haveto deal with them. Also, give up second-guessing yourself about the past; concentrate on the exciting life you are creating today.” (26)

2. “How Full is Your Bucket” by Tom Rath and Donald Clifton
Tip: (This book is more about being positive in life. Positive people get things done, so it’s kind of related to TM. The idea is that you have a bucket that holds positive things. When you hurt others, you take away from your bucket and theirs. When you help or are helped, your bucket is filled) “Be the person known for noticing when others do a great job.”

3. “Learn to Manage Your Time” by Lucy MacDonald
Tip: Display a Type-B personality: “Don’t take delays personally. Delays are part of life and most often have nothing to do with us.”


Why am I reading these books? Because living on Wall Street can be very hectic and stressing. I already had a stressful life built by my two procastinating hands. Anyway, I hope to bring harmony to my ideas with my life, and to ultimately organize my way to happiness.

Congrats to Italy for winning the World Cup. It really could have went either way since the game sadly ended in penalty kicks. But anyway, it was a good game, except when Zidane, one of the best players in the world, lost his cool and decided to red card his way out of there with a headbutt to an Italian. What was he thinking? My friends up in Italy must be celebrating all week long, so good for them! On the other hand, I must admit I’ve became a fan of Portugal…

Anyway, if there’s an event that attracts millions of viewers around the world, then there’s definitely money to be made. I came up with a short list of companies that were heavily advertised through the World Cup on the field or in commercials. Let’s see if their marketing efforts pays dividends.

• Vonage (VG) – reached 52-week low today, $7.38. Waiting eagerly for an entry point, but that will come when this voice-over-internet company stops getting sued.
• MasterCard (MA) – I saw banners all over the field of this global credit card company. $46.49.
• Adidas (ADDYY.pk) – unfortunately the only way to invest in the shoe company of football is over the pinksheets. Adidas in Germany made $1.8 billion in revenues throughout the Cup!
• Yahoo (YHOO) – although Google made an attempt to be the soccer station in the internet, it was Yahoo’s international presence and content based website that gave them the edge.
• McDonalds (MCD) – if football is the world’s sport, then McDonalds is the world’s food. I never saw too much advertising with McDonalds, just mostly on the field stuff.

Two previous momentum stocks are back on the radar today. I’ll add them to the list some time this weekend.

• Escala (ESCL)- reported millions in revenue; up 44%; way overbought; short candidate
• Infosonics (IFO) – added to Russel Microcap Index 7/7; another overbought stock on the news; short candidate. Up 17%.

New stocks on the meter:

• Able Energy (ABLE) – once again, this stock has picked up in the past week. I suspect someone is pumping and dumping this microcap. The volume doesn’t support the rally, so any sign of weakness would be a good short entry point. I tried shorting 7/6, but there were no shares left to short.

Updates to meter:

• Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) – is picking up again. A very silent, but steady, rally so far. This stock refused to dip below $20. My guess is stock is being accumulated on rise of oil prices; however, not all ethanol stocks are following the same pattern, so PEIX may be stronger than I thought.
• Medifast (MED) – time to short. MED hit the $20 resistance at a strong pace, but is now heading down. Stop loss just above $20. Target $16. This stock has Mr. Momentum all over it.
• Xiao Xing Universal (XING)– this stock has a confirmed broad short term range between $12 and $10. Swing!

Here’s a post I picked up off Pacific Ethanol’s message board on Yahoo. What this guy says is deep, and very true, and something to keep in mind when you’re in the stock market…

“Rob campbell 123 from my own experience as a daytrader in the last 7 years i can tell you one thing i learned from what i saw in stocks daily trading: when a stock moves up in the premarket and first few minutes after oficial open, 80% of the time that stock is a candidate for short and opposite: when is down in premarket, is going the other way during the normal trading hours. So the point is simple: don’t trade in premarket,wait first 15 minutes after opening and then go with the flow.Also after so many years of trading looks like this will be my first year (maybe) with a small profit. I am very very sincere:I AM UP JUST$+35.00 FOR THIS YEAR !!!If i did not have my little business i maybe dead by now after losing almost $700,000 in the last 7 years. I was thinking so many times to end my life. I was feeling like a trash. I lost my kids education savings,everything. My kids (for wich i dedicate most of my life lost respect for me and treated me badly after all the losses. The only person who supported me and encourage me (not to end my life)was my wife. Every day when i wake up (4:00 am ET) i had hope that this day i will make some money just to end up the other way.The problem is that this addiction is so big compared with most of the others…By now i think i learned almost all the tricks, i can’t trust not even my own shirt(lol) also i admit i am very very adicted to trading. I lost everything i made and save in the last 25 years in USA + few hundred thousand $$ extra in loans( which to this day i still have some left to pay about $35,000. At this poin i am trying to control this adiction( i don’t have any other but this is the worst on the planet) and i limit my self to trade from 9:30 to 11:30. If i did just that in the past probably i will be 1/2 in the big losses i am today.Also THE FIRST HOUR OF TRADING IS THE ONLY ONE IN WHICH YOU CAN MAKE MONEY EXPERTS SAYS.Well before i finish my story i will like to sugest to all experience and unexperience traders NOT to have hopes and dreams that you can make a living from this profession. Daytrading IS VERY VERY DANGEROUS AND FROM STATISTICS 95% ARE LOSING MONEY 3% ARE BREAKE EVEN AND 2% ARE MAKING MONEY!!!.Ask yourself this question is it worth? I wished to be the last 7 years in jail ( not wasting my time in the front of computers over 12 hours/day and losing sooo much money. At least if i was in jail i will have the money left ($700,000). I am very lucky i did not screw complete my other little business( which i almost lost because most of my time i invested in this shity trading).Folks and fellow traders this words and sugestion may be more that diamonds for you if you are not in the same shit i am by now. After i will pay the $35,000 the remaining loan i have to start from scratch almost, my life again. A sad story but i write it for the sake of others NOT to go thru what i went . Is a miracle i did not have a heart attack. Well i did not escape simple form this horible nighmare experience: at age 48 not even viagra can’t help me to make love to my wife. The feeling and humiliation can’t be explain. I wish to everyone on this board TO MAKE GREAT MONEY LONG OR SHORT i don’t care how just make money. It’s sad but the opposite will happen to 95% of us. GOD BLESS YOU EVERYONE ALWAYSHappy 4’th of july. “

There are a lot of good tips from day traders that replied to this comment. Here are some of their tips:

• “A successful daytrader learns how to control their passions. And the ONLY way to learn this route is by learning how to deal with exceptionally big losses. Hate to say that but that’s just the nature of the beast.”
• “In my opinion as a successful day trader, the key is timing and most of all NOT TO BE GREEDY. Know going in what your target sell price is and set a limit and stand by it. Granted it might not be much to some, but if I can make 2-3 hundred dollars in a few hours on a stock, then I am happy. I use to get heartburn seeing my sell price get farther and farther below the day’s close but it was that price I was happy with when I sold it. You can’t let the Greed Monster get you or you’ll end up the loser.”
• “One of the biggest problem day traders get into is the momentum trading. Buy a stock that is rapidly taking off and then jump ship before it sinks. I try to shy away from these investments because the greater reward potential goes hand in hand with risk. Bottom line: Buy support, sell resistance. “
• “the key is discipline, one greedy move can lose you a weeks worth of conservative solid profits. I trade between support and res. to, limits gains and cuts losses. “
• “The biggest failure in daytrading is NOT taking profits when they are there, being greedy, thinking the price will go higher and then you watch your profits disappear and then more.”
• “I just want to say please learn from your mistakes and look in the future not the past. I know it is hard, we all wish we could or should have, but the past is only good for learning and we pick ourselves up and make it better in the future…. we all make mistakes, big or small, important things is not to let our mistakes turn into a pattern that we can’t get out of.”
• “The trick is to ignore the news. Ignore the fundamentals. Forget about moving averages and other statistics that just look at stock price changes…. The answer to profiting lies in studying the options market. FOLLOW THE MONEY. Look for the big bets, know how to recognize a hedge, then take the side of those taking big option positions. “

Like I said, I don’t really have time to go looking for trades, but this one just popped up today so I thought I’d share it.

The Trade: Short Oil
Time Period: One to few days, depending on global events
Target Percentage: 3% – 5%
The Set Up: First, if you haven’t noticed, today (7/5) saw oil prices surge to over $75.00 (up $1.26). The reason was because Korea launched a missile somewhere that didn’t do anything. If you’ve been tracking oil, the volatility in price is strongly correlated with global tensions- therefore, if any news of a hurricane, a terrorist attack, or a country launching a missile hits the headlines, you’ll see a lot of hedging going on in oil. The trick is only part of the increase in price is reasonable, and they will likely fall back down to a reasonable value, especially if the tense news doesn’t have any follow through in the next few days. So, unless Korea launches another missile, or threatens another country with words, or anything else hinting towards war, then oil should settle back down below $74 in the short term.

The Stocks: At the end of the day I tried shorting the small caps that had big gains on low volume. However, it seems like everyone else had the same idea since most of these stocks had no more shares available to short! If more shares open up tomorrow morning, then I’ll take some. Here are the stocks with a potential for a big gap down:

• Blue Dolphin Energy (BDCO)- up big off Korea news. Cover at $5.50, tight stop loss at $6.00… this stock can catch on fire.
• Energy Select ETF (XLE) – the most conservative oil stock to short. Cover anywhere below $57.50.
• Able Energy (ABLE) – this stock is up BIG in the past week, so any reversal in oil prices would mean big gains on the short side. There were no shares left to short today. This is probably the most riskiest to short.
• Georesources (GEOI)- very small market cap, which would explain the big jump in one day. What’s interesting is the spike in volume that occurred at the end of the day. I wonder what that was.

Most importantly, keep eye on the price of oil futures.

I remember sitting in my cost accounting class listening in on a lecture about the Sarbanes Oxley Act, then having to write an essay about how corporate scandals are reshaping accounting practices. It was then that I first heard of Enron (I wasn’t too interested in businesses back then). Anyway, with the death of the founder, Kenneth Lay, today, I’m sure there is much talk about justice. He basically had life in prison waiting for him, but I it looks like a heart attack gave him an early verdict. Lay allegedly was part of a scandal that left thousands jobless and wiped out billions from investors. The question is, when your heart goes, was it because of too much guilt (ie, he’s guilty), or too much sorrow (ie, he’s innocent).