I can’t think of material that couldn’t be a better contrarian signal for a “bottom”, at least in the near and mid-term.
Excerpts from the Great Reflexivitist about Europa, via the “February 11, 2016” New York Review of Books, in an interview by Gregor Peter Schmidt via publication WirtschaftsWoche (German for “Economic Week”), entitled “The EU is on the Verge of Collapse”. The title should suffice but I tucked into this statement and wanted to see what was going on with Druckenmiller’s old boss.
Soros’ thesis: “There is plenty to be nervous about. As [Chancellor Angela Merkel] correctly predicted, the EU is on the verge of collapse. The Greek crisis taught the European authorities the art of muddling through one crisis after another. This practice is popularly known as kicking the can down the road, although it would be more accurate to describe it as kicking a ball uphill so that it keeps rolling back down. The EU now is confronted with not one but five or six crises at the same time.”
The basket of vipers plaguing the continent include: “Greece, Russia, Ukraine, the coming British referendum, and the migration crisis” and “the conflict in Syria…[and the] effect that the terrorist attacks in Paris and elsewhere have had on European public opinion.”, and courtesy of the current leadership in Hungary and Poland: “a mix of ethnic and religious nationalism in order to perpetuate themselves in power. In a sense they are trying to reestablish the kind of sham democracy that prevailed in the period between the First and Second World Wars….”
And Soros opines on the world Ex-Europa:
On the UK: “The managements of the multinational corporations that have built up their manufacturing capacity in Britain as a springboard into the common market are reluctant to say that they oppose a Brexit publicly… But ask them privately, as I did, and they will readily confirm it.”
On China: “China is exhausting these [foreign currency] reserves very rapidly. It also has an incredibly large reservoir of trust from the Chinese population…But the reservoir of trust is also being exhausted at a remarkably fast rate because the leadership has made many mistakes…China will exert a negative influence on the rest of the world by reinforcing the deflationary tendencies that are already prevalent.”
On Russia (and Turkey): “You could almost say that by shooting down a Russian fighter jet, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did Obama a favor. Putin had to recognize that his military adventure had run into serious opposition and he now seems ready for a political solution.”
On Donald Trump: “Going back many years Donald Trump wanted me to be the lead tenant in one of his early buildings. He said: “I want you to come into the building. You name your price.” My answer was, “I’m afraid I can’t afford it.” And I turned him down.”
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/11/europe-verge-collapse-interview/
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