The time to tactically short, with less “stress” has passed when it passed the “two-hundred” roll, breaking decisiviely with hundreds of percent above average trading volume. So, it’s ripe for face-ripping and pain after the first few rounds of knife-catching.
SO.
SO… if and only if you have the minerals for it Tommy (film reference “Snatch”) and about 5K to spare (potentially lose) could you perhaps consider this.
Right now, the “lowest” price way to play this with some give could be the March 2016/April 2016 puts at a 120, 125 strike for about $50, or better. In that neighborhood, it’s about a $5K trade give or take. If the balance sheet narrative overcomes all and this gives up the ghost, this should be a hefty leveraged return with a limited downside (that approx $5K you might pay for this one). (I defer to optionsaddict and raul for more advanced plays.) this one is a vanilla long option play with decent delta and enough time to play out or be played out, which means you could get stopped out around 150+(!) and recover pennies on the dollar on these puts if anything. Set a stop loss if the underlying rockets up to 150 (which could happen any day or week now) after the soul searching begins at the offices Ruane Cuniff. Yes, I said to $150, that is wide stop loss trigger on the underlying.
That’s right, all I’m talking about is the potential downside, because it’s obvious what the upside on these puts could be if there more bad news, revelations or whatever.
Again, if you don’t have a hefty bankroll, large 6 figures to modest 7 minimum, don’t do this. Don’t.
Odds are pretty good no-one will read this one so I can put this out there and do a fake victory lap if it works out. If not, I can hopefully slink away and have my ego-wounds cauterized.
Perhaps it’s better if you DO have the bankroll, reconsider idea and instead go long $AMZN, $GOOG, and $FB and the growing pariah lineup I find myself confronted with, that no-one will have any interest in until price absolutely screams this was the stuff to go long weeks ago back when a bitcoin could only buy you Old Navy instead of Tom Ford and Savile Row.
Just some spitballing to get this out of my system.
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I went long a t $79. Seems overdone to me.
I don’t blame you Grimace, it’s crazy action indeed but hard for me to fade a dominant movement.
Reminds me of what happened to QCOR, Same players involved, Ended up a 6 bagger off the lows, I lived through that one and did very well, At the very least it’s great theater,