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Welcome to my blog. I’m honestly not that good, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I am right a decent percentage of the time, but my timing is often quite off.
In regards to this market, the news is honestly and unequivocally AWFUL.
1) Momentum leaders: CRUSHED. Apple missed earnings (not the biggest deal, but definitely didn’t help). Amazon missed by a mile. Green Mountain – Einhorn’s GAAP-uchino presentation is a must read. Netflix is an epic disaster.
2) Europe. Cain has been all over this. Definitely check out his blog, he has some awesome analysis. Italian 10 yr’s are near 6%. There’s chaos everywhere. Europe is telling Britian to f*ck off. Inflation and economic numbers don’t look too stable. Greece is a nightmare (which, ironically, is only about the economic size of Washington state. Go figure). There’s much more too.
3) Occupy Wall Street
4) Oil will kill people eventually. It’s at 92. Any benefit we would see from economic weakness might be helped by people travelling, spending more, via cheaper gas. That’s not happening and will not happen with oil up here. It will choke the consumer and growth as a whole.
5) Our government. It is in shambles. 999 please?
6) Earnings have been pretty good. Guidance – not so much. Check out this piece business insider put together. One thing to note, though, is net insider buying has been very strong recently. I do not have the figures offhand, but August saw a huge insider buying presence when the market was thrown off of a cliff.
7) Banks are AWFUL. Many beats have been because of accounting moves. Net interest margins are minuscule, so why would any bank lend? It makes more sense for them to keep cash on hand with Europe looking to end the world.
8) China… oh China. My main tells are copper and coal for China. I definitely need to learn more about China, but the country manipulates (or at least has the potential to) all of their data. PMI is barely back above 50 after it had dipped below, but who knows what’s really going on. Copper prices are being brutalized, and coal companies are struggling.
Regarding my own positions, I’m long a bunch of random names and mutual funds that I will be looking at soon.
At the moment, I’m long FAZ (which I am getting destroyed in after nailing a bunch over the past few months), and I went long SCO today at $45.70 (a double leveraged oil short. I am a big believe in Cain’s opinion on this. Again, check out his blog.) I will look to sell out shortly. Also, despite hating gold (it literally has ZERO use whatsoever) and only disliking silver, I will look to enter some trades on these. SLV, the silver etf, looks good chart-wise, and, as the Fly points out, seasonality dictates they do well in November.
3 Responses to “It’s a celebration, bitches”
Koala
Ehehehehehheh
BRO.
China is a joke – I would hear sometimes during the summer to just ignore their economic releases because they manipulate everything. Trade is priced in though at least in options – was hearing that implied vol on yuan contracts skyrocketed. Need to look up specifics but makes sense.
admin
Damn, I miss Chappelle’s Show…
Anyway, welcome aboard!
djmarcus
Thanks