Beige Book Says All But 1 district of 12 are stable
WASHINGTON – A new government survey finds the vast majority of the country reporting economic activity is stabilizing or improving, as the worst recession since the 1930s appears to be over.
The Federal Reserve’s snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow again in the current quarter.
In the new survey, all but one of the Fed’s 12 regions indicated that economic activity was “stable,” showed “signs of stabilization” or had “firmed.”
The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be “moderating.”
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Foreclosures to Come
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Only 12 percent of U.S. homeowners eligible for loan modifications under the Obama administration’s housing rescue plan have had their mortgages reworked, and millions more foreclosures are coming, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
A Treasury report showed 360,165 people had their monthly payments reduced through August, up from 235,247 through July, but a senior Treasury official conceded much more must be done to soften the impact of a severe and prolonged housing crisis.
“The recent crisis in the housing sector has devastated families and communities across the country and is at the center of our financial crisis and economic downturn,” Michael Barr, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, told a House Financial Services subcommittee.
Treasury has begun releasing monthly reports on the loan modification program, called the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, that it launched in February. At the time, it was suggested that millions of Americans might be able to get some relief through negotiations with their mortgage lenders.
But the program, which pays cash incentives to mortgage servicers to reduce monthly payments to 31 percent of a borrower’s income, is off to a relatively slow start.
In July, Treasury said that just 9 percent of the estimated number of homeowners eligible had had their payments reduced, so August’s 12 percent total represents only modest progress.
Barr said that Treasury was on track to achieve 500,000 trial modifications by November 1. The modification becomes permanent once a borrower makes three reduced monthly payments.
Barr said that “even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures” as administration and industry efforts continue to stabilize a crisis-stricken housing sector.
BANKRUPTCY REVISION BILL THREATENED
Lawmakers expressed frustration at the slow progress as unemployment-driven foreclosures rise and threatened to revive so-called “cram-down” legislation that would allow bankruptcy judges to reduce mortgage loan amounts owed.
“I am disappointed at the pace of this program,” said Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the Financial Services Committee.
The House last year passed a cram-down bill but it was defeated in the Senate, which at the time had a narrower Democratic majority.
“The best lobbyists we have for getting bankruptcy legislation passed are the servicers who are not doing a very good job of modifying mortgages,” said Frank. “If they do not improve their performance, then they improve the chances of that legislation.”
Barr said President Barack Obama supports the idea of allowing bankruptcy judges to alter mortgage terms, but “the first and best answer has got to be ‘let’s figure out a way of keeping people in their home with a modification’ and that’s where we’re focused.”
A Federal Reserve economist, however, said that an effective plan to mitigate foreclosures must deal with rising unemployed borrowers.
“Thirty one percent of an unemployed person’s income is often nothing. And a payment of zero will never be attractive to a lender,” Boston Federal Reserve Bank senior economist Paul Willen told the hearing.
Treasury said that 47 loan servicers have signed up for the loan modification program initiated by Treasury. But the Treasury report showed 21 had modified less than 5 percent of eligible troubled loans and several had not modified any.
The lender with the highest percentage of eligible loans modified was Saxon Mortgage Services Inc., at 39 percent. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC – News), one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders and servicers, had modified just 7 percent of loans eligible for the program.
Barr said a strong housing market was “crucial” to a sustained U.S. economic recovery and noted that analysts say
more than six million Americans are at risk of foreclosure in the next three years.
“Much more remains to be done and we will continue to work with other agencies, regulators and the private sector to reach as many families as possible,” Barr said.
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Asian Markets Sell Off on Isider Selling & Profit Taking
By Patrick Rial and Shani Raja
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks fell, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index from a one-year high, as Alibaba.com Ltd.’s chairman sold a stake and Lenovo Group Ltd. shareholders reduced their holdings.
Alibaba.com, owner of China’s biggest electronic-commerce Web site, dropped 6.7 percent in Hong Kong after Chairman Jack Ma sold stock for $35 million, part of the at least $2 billion of sales announced in Asia in the past two days. Lenovo, China’s biggest maker of personal computers, declined 5.7 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. retreated 3 percent in Tokyo after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut the bank’s rating.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.8 percent to 115.04 as of 6:23 p.m. in Tokyo after closing at the highest level since Sept. 24 yesterday. The gauge has gained 63 percent in the past six months on speculation the global economy is recovering. Stocks on the index are priced at an average 23 times estimated earnings, up from 14 times at the start of the year.
“The conundrum for investors is ascertaining whether market valuations are justified by the underlying macro-economic improvement or not,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage about $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The added equity issuance in recent days is symptomatic of companies and their corporate advisers taking advantage of increased investor appetite and higher share prices.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.8 percent to 10,312.14. South Korea’s Kospi Index dropped 0.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1 percent. CSK Holdings Corp. sank 7.6 percent in Tokyo, while Metro Pacific Investments Corp. dropped 14 percent in Manila after they announced share sales…..
European Markets Lift Slightly on Automakers
By Andrew Rummer
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest stretch of gains since July, as Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Renault SA led a rally by automakers.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.3 percent to 238.61 as of 11:07 a.m. in London, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.5 percent.
European Markets Give Up Rally on Lower Dollar
LONDON (AP) – European and Asian stocks drifted lower Wednesday as a drop in the value of the dollar hit world exporters, pushing investors to cash in on this week’s rally.
The U.S. dollar was hovering near lows for the year against the euro and a two-month low against the yen after sinking Tuesday. That helped oil prices jumped more than $3 a barrel overnight.
The dollar’s fall also helped gold kept its nose above $1,000 an ounce after it rose above that mark the previous day for the first time since February.
Following a string of gains triggered by big merger announcements and a pledge by the Group of 20 rich and developing countries to maintain stimulus efforts, investors looked eager to cash in on this week’s gains.
Germany’s DAX fell 0.3 percent, to 5,467.49 and Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent, to 4,934.78. France’s CAC-40 shed 0.3 percent, to 3,650.63. Sentiment was no better on Wall Street, where stock futures pointed to losses at the open. Dow futures fell 0.5 percent to 9,452.00 and S&P futures slipped 0.3 percent, to 1,022.50.
Asian indexes also dropped, as its export-heavy economies – like those in Europe – suffered from the weaker dollar, which makes it harder for them to sell in the U.S.
The dollar recovered only some of its previous day’s losses against the yen edging up to 92.51 yen from 92.26 yen late Tuesday. The euro, meanwhile, continued to rise, to $1.4497 from $1.4488 after Tuesday hitting $1.4535, its highest level this year.
The dollar – a typical safe haven – has been hurt by a rise in stock markets and a general improvement in investors’ risk appetite after world governments said they would continue to support the global recovery and corporate merger activity picked up.
Still, analysts are not sure how far the dollar can fall, particularly since doubts still linger about the strength of recovery in world economies.
“It has been said that it is better to be mad with the rest of the world than wise alone. This is certainly relevant to foreign exchange markets at the moment,” said Daragh Maher, analyst at Calyon.
“The truly level-headed will be booking profits early and constantly reassessing,” he said.
The weaker dollar has had the added effect of causing commodity prices like oil and gold to jump higher.
Benchmark crude oil for October delivery gained $3.08 overnight and was up 3 cents to $71.13 a barrel by late morning European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil traders were watching closely an OPEC meeting in Vienna, although oil ministers have repeatedly said that the producer group is unlikely to change its production levels.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi, whose country is OPEC’s top producer and most influential member, said Tuesday that crude’s current price “is good for everybody: consumers and producers.”
Gold has likewise shot higher, rising above the $1,000 per ounce mark Tuesday for the first time since February and trading at $999.00 per ounce, down $0.80, on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday.
Peter Lai, investment manager at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong, said gold is likely to continue to rise if the dollar weakens any further, as that would make the precious metal more affordable in other countries.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 81.09 points, or 0.8 percent, at 10,312.14, while South Korea’s Kospi retreated 0.7 percent to 1,607.77.
Automakers and other exporters got hit hardest. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, was down 1.8 percent and electronics giant Sony dropped 2.2 percent. Hyundai Motor Co. shed 5.8 percent in Seoul.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng declined 218.77, or 1 percent, to 20,851.04. China’s benchmark Shanghai index recovered losses to gain 15.78, or 0.5 percent, to 2,946.26, while Australia’s main index closed marginally lower.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 56.07, or 0.6 percent, to 9,497.34 on Tuesday. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 8.99, or 0.9 percent, to 1,025.39, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 18.99, or 0.9 percent, to 2,037.77.
Oil Hangs Around $71 pb
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SINGAPORE (AP) – Oil prices hovered near $71 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a weakening U.S. dollar sent crude soaring overnight.
Benchmark crude for October delivery was down 7 cents at $71.03 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
On Tuesday, the contract gained $3.08 to settle at $71.10 as the dollar fell to a low for the year against the euro and gold prices surpassed $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February.
Some investors buy oil, gold and other commodities as a hedge against a weakening dollar and inflation.
The euro was slightly lower at $1.4476 in Asian trading while the dollar edged up to 92.48 yen.
“People are selling dollars for higher-yielding currencies, and that’s driving oil higher,” said Christoffer Moltke-Leth, head of sales trading for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
“Keep an eye on the dollar and the $74 level,” he said. “If oil breaks that, it could shoot to $80 or $85 in the short-term.”
Investors will also be looking to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s output, as it mulls production targets at a meeting later in the day.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said Tuesday that crude markets were “in good shape,” boosting expectations OPEC will to stress compliance with output quotas instead of cutting production.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was steady at $1.83 a gallon, and heating oil held at $1.79 a gallon. Natural gas rose 1.8 cents to $2.83 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude was down 9 cents to $69.33.
OPEC Maintains No Oil Cuts
VIENNA (AP) – OPEC appeared poised to hold oil production quotas unchanged Wednesday, with its ministers voicing satisfaction with current global crude prices.
Instead, the focus at the organization’s meeting in Vienna was to be on persuading members not to sell more oil than their quotas permit.
Kuwait’s oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Al Abullah Al Sabah, said OPEC’s markets monitoring committee would suggest to the 12-country group that oil output targets be held steady at the organization’s meeting Wednesday in Vienna.
The recommendation offers further indication that ministers from the bloc – supplier of roughly 35 percent of the world’s crude – are turning their aim toward encouraging member discipline. Compliance with the output limits, which are designed to support prices, has been waning.
Prices are now roughly double their levels from December, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced its record 4.2 million barrel per day cuts from September 2008 levels. The price rally has been welcome news for cash-hungry member governments, but also a temptation to sell more oil.
U.S. benchmark light sweet crude for October delivery was hovering at around $71 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The level is well within the range that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has said it would like to see.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi, whose country is OPEC’s top producer and most influential member, told reporters Tuesday that crude’s current prices “is good for everybody: consumers and producers.”
His satisfaction was echoed by other OPEC ministers ahead of the meeting, who also pointed to indications of a nascent global economic recovery after the world’s worst recession in decades destroyed demand for crude, the chief foreign revenue source for the majority of OPEC’s members.
“The economy seems to be doing OK,” Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters, echoing other ministers. “Things look all right. Prices are holding.”
But even as he acknowledged that “lots of uncertainties remain,” Khelil said the careful implementation of the group’s last round of output cuts will help stabilize the market within the next six months.
“All we need to do is comply with what we have decided to do,” he said.
Adhering to those quotas has typically been one of OPEC’s chief weaknesses, but pivotal at a time when the group is leery of shocking the market with a sharp cut that could send prices surging – and undercut any economic recovery.
With compliance down to around 70 percent, the group can ill afford to look the other way at a time when global crude demand remains weak, oil inventories high, and major non-OPEC producers like Russia showing little indication they are willing to do more than pay lip service to OPEC’s calls for broader coordination on production.
Given their current overproduction, OPEC “cannot say we’re going to cut because no one will believe them,” said John Hall, of London-based John Hall Associates. “Credibility matters.”
The group’s current production target is just under 25 million barrels per day, but output figures excluding Iraq indicate OPEC members are pumping around 26 million barrels per day, analysts say, adding that Angola, Iran and Venezuela have been particularly lax with their quotas.
In the current global economic climate, quota compliance is particularly pressing for the cartel. Even as the key U.S. driving season winds down, global crude inventories remain high in the industrialized West – well above the 52- to 54-day forward cover level the group sees as comfortable. Inventories of refined oil products generally in demand in winter months are also high, meaning that OPEC cannot count on refiners to churn out more products and, in the process, run down crude stocks.
Kuwait’s Al Sabah said Tuesday while a quick rebound in demand for crude was unlikely, he expected a “noticeable improvement” in the first and second quarters of 2010.
That leaves the group will little room for error if it hopes to see current prices sustained through the year.
“I think we are going to stay where we are,” said Algeria’s Khelil. “There will be lots of volatility because of the uncertainty that’s tied to the economy, and we’re going to see ups and downs. But I think we’re going to stay in that level until early next year, and then by early next year, we should see prices rising.”
FSLR To Build The World’s Largest Solar Plant in China
By John Duce and Indira A.R. Lakshmanan
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — First Solar Inc., a U.S.-based renewable energy company, will build the world’s largest solar power plant in China as the country plans to increase non- polluting electricity generation.
The plant would be about thirty times larger than existing solar power stations operating in Europe, Dulce Qu, a Beijing- based spokeswoman for company, said by telephone today. The 2,000-megawatt complex will be built in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, China by 2019, Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar said yesterday. One mega watt is enough to power 800 U.S. homes.
China, the world’s biggest polluter, burns coal to produce 80 percent of its electricity and wants at least 15 percent of the nation’s energy to come from renewable sources by 2020. The U.S. and China are trying to reduce emissions of gases blamed for global warming, and the New York Times reported yesterday Bechtel Corp. plans to build a solar station in California.
“There are a few existing solar projects of about 50 to 60 megawatts, but this would be the biggest by a country mile,” said Charles Yonts, an analyst specializing in alternative energy at CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong. “China is suggesting the solar market will be up to 20,000 megawatts by 2020, but the scale of this project suggests these estimates are far too conservative.”
China may increase its capacity to generate electricity from sunlight more than 13-fold by 2011, Cui Rongqiang, head of the Shanghai Solar Energy Society, said Aug. 31. The country’s solar- power capacity may rise to 2,000 megawatts by 2011 and 20,000 megawatts by 2020, from 150 megawatts in 2008, he said……
China National Petroleum Gets $30 Billion To Expand Through Aquisition
By Bloomberg News
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — China National Petroleum Corp., parent of the world’s biggest company by market value, received a $30 billion loan to fund overseas expansion as the country’s government stepped up its hunt for energy resources.
The five-year loan will be provided at a discounted interest rate by China Development Bank under an agreement signed yesterday, PetroChina Co.’s parent said in a statement on its Web site today, without giving details.
The accord underscores China’s strategy to accelerate acquisitions of energy resources abroad after spending $12 billion this year on oil fields and refining assets in countries including Singapore and Canada. The world’s third-biggest economy is taking advantage of lower valuations to build oil reserves and ensure future supplies after demand doubled in the last decade.
“This reflects China’s intensifying desire to beef up long-term national energy security,” Gordon Kwan, the head of regional energy research at Mirae Asset Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in an e-mailed note. The nation is “exploiting depressed oil prices while diversifying away from holding too much U.S. dollar bonds,” he said.
Oil prices in New York have fallen about 51 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel reached last year. China is the world’s largest foreign holder of U.S. treasury bills. The country’s U.S. government debt holdings stood at $776.4 billion as of June 30.
Potential Repsol Bid
China National, also known as CNPC, had proposed offering $13 billion to $14.5 billion for a controlling stake in Repsol YPF SA’s Argentine unit, three people familiar with the matter said in July. The transaction would be China’s largest overseas takeover.
The oil producer may need to issue corporate bonds or borrow from banks to finance the deal, according to Wang Jing, chief oil analyst with Orient Securities Ltd. The company’s cash isn’t sufficient because it may still need funds to maintain its day-to-day operations, she said…..
NYSE Euronext To Sell A Piece of AMEX Options Unit
By Jeff Kearns and Nandini Sukumar
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — NYSE Euronext agreed to sell stakes in the options business it purchased last year with the American Stock Exchange to seven brokerages including Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc, as it seeks to revive the division.
Citadel Investment Group LLC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG will also purchase stakes in NYSE Amex, the company said in a Business Wire statement today. NYSE Euronext will remain the biggest shareholder in the options exchange after the transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2009, the company said.
Once the nation’s second-largest options exchange, NYSE Amex has lost market share for eight straight years, to 5.8 percent in 2008 from 28.6 percent in 2000, according to data compiled by Options Clearing Corp. The proportion climbed to 5.9 percent in 2009. NYSE spent $260 million to buy Amex in 2008.
In selling a stake to its biggest customers, NYSE is following a strategy pioneered by rivals such as Direct Edge Holdings LLC and Bats Global Markets, which are vying to become the U.S.’s third-largest equity exchange. In Europe, broker- owned trading systems including Turquoise and Chi-X Europe Ltd. have taken about a third of market share from traditional bourses such as London Stock Exchange Group Plc and Deutsche Boerse AG…..
CIC To Invest In U.S. Real Estate
China’s $300 billion sovereign-wealth fund is eyeing big investments in distressed U.S. real estate, according to people familiar with the matter. To finance some of the deals, China may rely on an old trading partner: the U.S. government.
In recent weeks, officials from China Investment Corp. have held talks with U.S. private-equity fund managers, including BlackRock Inc., Invesco Ltd. and Lone Star Funds, about potential investments in beaten-down property assets, namely mortgage securities backed by office buildings, hotels, strip malls and other commercial property. CIC also is considering buying ownership interests in buildings, according to the people with knowledge of the matter.
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Imaginechina/Associated Press
CIC Chairman Lou Jiwei is sitting on a $300 billion investment chest.
In addition, CIC is weighing investing through one of the U.S. government’s bailout programs, the Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program, known as PPIP. The program is designed to rid banks of toxic mortgage securities by enticing investors to buy these assets with financing from the U.S. government.
Representatives for CIC, BlackRock, Invesco and Lone Star declined to comment.
The discussions come at a time when CIC, which had nearly $300 billion in assets at the end of last year, is moving to deploy its capital after a relatively idle 2008. Property markets world-wide have plunged since the credit-market crisis that started in mid-2007, creating opportunities for cash-rich buyers. In the U.S., commercial property values already have dropped 35% from the peak.
Last year, CIC deployed just $4.8 billion in global financial markets. This year it invested that much in a single month, CIC Chairman Lou Jiwei said last month. He said that if CIC’s future returns are good enough, it might ask the government to let it invest more of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, which now total $2.132 trillion…..
Barrick Gold To Issue $3 bln To Cover Hedges
By Cameron French
TORONTO (Reuters) – Barrick Gold will issue $3 billion in stock to eliminate all of its fixed-price gold hedges and a portion of its floating hedges, taking a $5.6 billion hit to third-quarter earnings, the world’s top gold miner said on Tuesday.
For Barrick, which expects gold prices to keep rising, the deal should remove what has been a big drag on its shares, the legacy of the company’s past reliance on hedging, a practice it abandoned in 2003.
During times of weak prices, gold miners often sell a portion of their future production to protect, or hedge, against the possibility that prices will fall.
When prices rise, as they have done since 2001, the company suffers because value of the future production they’ve sold does not increase with the gold price.
“It’s long overdue,” John Ing, president of Toronto investment dealer Maison Placements, said of the move.
“In the bear market, (hedging) saved a lot of people, but in the bull market it just added supply to the market … it was the original derivative.”
Barrick took a $557 million charge to buy out its production hedge book two years ago, and has faced repeated questions from analysts and shareholders since then about its plans for the remaining 9.5 million ounces it had hedged to finance projects.
“The gold hedge book has been a particular concern among our shareholders and the broader market, which we believe has obscured the many positive developments within the company,” Barrick Chief Executive Aaron Regent said in a statement.
Barrick will spend $1.9 billion to eliminate all of its fixed-price gold contracts — on which the company effectively lost money every time the gold price rose — by buying gold on the open market and delivering it into the contracts.
It will also pay $1 billion to eliminate some of its floating spot price contracts — the liability on which does not change with fluctuations in the price of gold — leaving about $2.7 billion of floating hedges on the books…..
Greenspan Warns of Another Financial Crisis
Well, duh.It’s news that Alan Greenspan told the BBC in a one-year anniversary special on the financial crisis that more crises are coming. It doesn’t sound as though he’s talking about a second-wave of this particular shock. Instead he’s just making the obvious point that even those who know their history are doomed to repeat it, particularly when it concerns excess, money, bubbles, and psychology.
“They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source,” he said.
“That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue.”
Speaking a year after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which was followed by a worldwide financial crisis and global recession, Mr Greenspan described the behaviour as “human nature”.
You can watch an (annoyingly non-embeddable) video of Greenspan here, though we think you get the idea.
Where To Invest If Recovery is Truly Under Way
After the recent ISM reading of 53 and growing signs of economic stability investors have continued to pile into higher risk assets. According to Goldman Sachs certain sectors within this move into high risk assets will outperform when the ISM shows the economy in expansionary mode. After experiencing recent outperformance in financials and consumer discretionary stocks as ISM troughed and ran up to 50, it may now be wise to shift assets into energy, tech, staples, materials and industrials.
![WHERE TO INVEST WHEN ISM IS OVER 50]()
* All information on this website is provided for general purposes and should not be misconstrued as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before acting on any of the information herein. You should always assume that the author(s) could have a vested interest in topics described and may or may not own securities and instruments discussed.
At the height of the credit bubble financial stocks represented 22% of the S&P 500. After shrinking to just 9% in early March the financial sector has skyrocketed back to a 15% share of the S&P 500. All of this money printing and reflationary government intervention is helping fuel the beast that caused this entire crisis. The banks are back and that’s not necessarily a good thing:
![CHART OF THE DAY: IS THE FINANCIAL BUBBLE RE EMERGING?]()
* All information on this website is provided for general purposes and should not be misconstrued as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before acting on any of the information herein. You should always assume that the author(s) could have a vested interest in topics described and may or may not own securities and instruments discussed.
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