Continued Consolidation / Sector Analysis / KASH Formula
Imperial Guard Leman Russ Battle Tank - Anvilus Imperator Design
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Consolidation continues. The new expected daily range is between 915-935 as can be seen on the 1-mo/60-min and 2-mo/60-min charts. The 8-month/daily chart shows that the SPX is currently above the 20-day MA. For a head & shoulders (H&S) pattern to qualify, the right shoulder must be a lower high and the neckline break must be confirmed. Leave your mind open to the possibility that we may not even be forming a H&S pattern. The market remains ‘neutral’.
I’ve also added the SPRD select sector charts, and collectively as a whole, they support my neutral rating on the market. The sectors are not moving in tandem. The materials and energy sectors may be forming small bear flags. Health care, tech, and utilities are in ascending channels. Cons. discretionary, cons. staples, financials, and industrials are in neutral ranges.
On a different note, let’s talk about the KASH formula:
Good formulas work just like good recipes. Follow a set of directions, and you can make an apple pie. Take out a cookbook, follow the directions, and you can make creme brulee as good as the person who wrote the book. What’s the point? The kind of formula you follow determines the outcome you’ll have.
Formulas apply to all aspects of life. Take for example, a tailor followed a pattern to make that suit or dress that you are wearing. A builder built your house from a set of plans. A programmer used a set of formulas to design the programs that you use. For all of those formulas to work and give good results, they had to be followed carefully.
There’s an old joke about a pharmacist who was grinding a prescription that called for as much strychnine as you could put on the face of a dime. He didn’t have a dime, so he used 2 nickels.
Sound like something you would do? Bet you’d hate to be the one taking that prescription. Unfortunately, that’s about how carefully some people follow the formulas they’ve learned in life, and in trading.
What is KASH? KASH = Knowledge + Attitudes + Skills + Habits = Success.
Here’s a useful exercise for you to evaluate yourself:
1) What additional knowledge do I need?
2) How can I improve my mental attitudes?
3) What additional skills do I need?
4) What new habits should I develop? (For me, I need to get to bed earlier!)
5) How can I improve my success personality?
As you know, I will be starting up a private 1-on-1 live 2-day coaching program. “KASH” will be one of the things that will drilled in your head. If you missed the info, I added it below.
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I will be starting a premium service sponsored by iBC. It will be only for the most serious, committed, and capitalized traders in need of immediate improvement.
It will be a 2-day live 1-on-1 training ‘bootcamp’ where I will individually train a candidate on everything that I know and exactly how I do things at their own residence. The ideal candidates are those that seek help NOW and those that want to exponentially shorten their learning curve.
This program will be the costliest program offered on iBC, and no pikers will be accepted.
The training will consist of:
-Help with all things technical analysis
-Long/short strategies, including my proprietary strategies
-Trading principles/psychological conditioning
-Live analysis of at least 1,000 charts, real-time and current
-Candlestick charting, including the most advanced and expert forms of Renko and Kagi
-Give you my extensive PDF library (2.5GB, approx. 1,250 files)
-Share my proprietary Earnings Trading System
-Share the tools that I use to find my trades for the day/week
-2 training manuals in print
-And much, much more…
I will be accepting 2 people per month, or 12 for this year. Absolute priority goes to those who contribute the most on my blog.
More on this later as I hammer out all of the details. Fee is still being determined.
PPHM
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Completes Planned Patient Enrollment in Bavituximab Phase I Cancer Trial
- Completion of Phase I Paves Way for Expanding Bavituximab Cancer Program -
- Inclusion of Patients with Diverse Advanced Cancers Along with Promising Interim Phase II Data Suggest Bavituximab Could Have Broad Anti-Cancer Utility -
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/06-30-2009/0005052659&EDATE=
ARM strong open
MEDX
short the banks..Cramer loves them..its a gift from god..as he is the fucking kiss of stock death…stupid bald bitch
BRKR TMRK
Covered CAR short @ 5.44… will lay it back out in the next 30 mins. (Short yesterday @ 5.70, this morning at 5.73 and 5.55)
LYTS - check the news from yesterday CA post - BTFO
KASH, I like it!
CA, does that mean the fee will include your commute costs to the candidate’s residence (which may be in another state from where you reside)?
EPEX busting out
Morning - consumer confidence coming out shortly (for whatever that’s worth).
Watching energy related names and ERX for a possible squeeze.
AIG volume is nutso - stock split I believe after today’s close.
CA - do you TEN on the daily? It broke above 11. Thx.
RFMD breaks $4 with new all time high!
DrewDog trust me RFMD @ $4 is not a new all-time high… i used to own it 50’s unfortunately.
Sold PCBC $2.22
looks like bullshit educators are popular this morning. APOL,ESI,CECO,DV,COCO
Sold OCNF $1.51
GERN - holding up well even during /es sell off
Looks like TEN was a better short than long. Not in it.
In TEN at 10.70
In ERX at 29.95
Yes, Enigma
My mistake Pissant, I meant to say, 52-week high. Got ahead of myself.
SMN breaking out of bull flag
Out ERX, -$1
Holding TEN, SPPI, BORL and PALM - may clear the deck today tho and go to cash.
Cramer….BAC sold to you shithead…fucking skank cocksucker..hahahaha
You have a lot of rage, C-N-G
ES should stabilize here
CA..nah..just cant stand Cramer…i am a trader not a fighter…shorting HIG and LNC…thoughts mate?
out TEN, tiny gain.
Insurers suck. Don’t forget MET and PRU
CA…thanks..I concur.
C-N-G, i think the insurers are good shorts now, just dont get too big. Be small on an illiquid, holiday week. Even if the charts show all the promise in the world.
PissAnt…sage advice…however they are shit on a stick..so i will venture in boldly…damn the torpedo’s style..
UIS 1.48 … I hate this fucking stock, but back in.
look at that move on XIDE
Added OSK.TO @ 6.55,
RNWK @ 2.91
and SWKS @ 9.90
Hmm, why are my comments not publishing?
Added
RNWK @ 2.92
OSK.TO @ 6.55
SWKS @ 9.9
Added RNWK - 2.92
OSK.TO - 6.55
SWKS - 9.90
Added OSK.TO @ 6.55
RNWK @ 2.92 and SWKS @ 9.90
C-N-G… i hear ya, i usually run large on shorts, and i’m in an out quick. See CAR this morning? Unreal how quick it can turn, but i was out at 940am.
Bought CNXT $1.33
PissAnt…yeah i saw that..nice trade…
Toronto - your comments got caught in spam for some reason. I think I fixed it.
Sold half PACR $2.21
CA,why cant i post my comments????its not publishing
Wow I have been on this blog from the beginning…. I see many many new names here its great.
TSTR
Ready to launch tomorrow - if you don’t know, they make small form factor (Blackberry-like) satellite phones for civilian, government, and corporate use. In an event like Katrina or 9/11, they will provide the service when towers are taken out or turned off.
The weather forcast is a bit better for tomorrow - wind is close to the limit and rain will push the date back.\
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.1.81403&hourly=1&yday=181&weekday=Wednesday
Conf. call starts in 20 minutes.
Time: 11:30 to 12:30 EDT
Call host: Steve Nichols, Executive Vice President, Operations,
TerreStar Canada
To register and dial into call and obtain materials click on:
http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=2716780
Call-in 1-800-732-0232
IF YOU BUY THIS< Y
Ring - I don’t see ur comments in my spam net
TSTR
Sorry - if you buy this VERY speculative play, expect set-backs and volatility. If they actually pull off the launch and the bird tests well, it should rip - sell that news!
look forward to the pricing
Out the rest of SOEN .44 (bot .33)
boring…
ARM trying again
CA,not today…im trying last 1 week…today looks okey…thanks
BTW im with u on CNXT
Thanks CA
Damn comment filter.
CA,
what’s your target price for CNXT?
Sold other half PACR $2.17/2.18
NVAX btfo
added some HAFC 1.55
CA,
Any thoughts on DRL on the daily?
DRL possible double bottom
RE: NVAX.. I need one of those
Bought ACAS $3.18
on ACAS less valume …is it ok?
YGE looks good for me
if ACAS continues to form it’s doji, that’s fine.
Ring - i see why you say YGE looks good for you. But it is currently vulnerable in my opinion. You should take a look at the USO, double top? If so and oil falls for the next few days, you’ll be hammered in all the alternative energy plays.
Bought UIS $1.4895
ES bot 911.75
ES out 912 +.25
Anybody see NVAX today? did i just plain miss this one?
CWTR had a nice bounce off the upward trendline. Looks to be moving higher!
Could AGEN run like NVAX?
the move in NVAX today was primarily news based, although I think AGEN’s chart looks great, but it probably won’t move on volume like NVAX
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spanish-Government-Selects-prnews-2121575613.html?x=0&.v=1
UIS b/o above 1.50
SPPI…giddy up.
CA - any opinion on XIDE?
Bought KV/A $3.21
You don’t know how I was wishing we could have the same exact market we had yesterday only upside-down. I feel so lucky!
CA,
MTG from your 6/5 post close to bo,also HW, would it be a buy on support
SIRI launching satellite today 3:10. http://satwaves.com/blog/2009/06/29/sirius-xms-fm-5-satellite-set-to-launch/, maybe some mojo.
Thanks for the great blog.
TSTR conference call was useless-as-tits-on-a-hog-boring. For a company launching the largest and most powerful communications satellie ever, they were a very subdued management team and no information you could not just get from their web site.
Very cool technology though. Blackberry sized device that is IP enabled and can use both ground based towers and a satellite link. Their chips will be used to enable satellite internet access for laptops and remote facilities (pipelines, etc.).
They are partnered with Hughes, Loral, Cisco, and several other big names. If they can pull this off and it shows promise, they will eventually get bought out. It’s very risky to be sure but they have the best business model (and BY FAR the best handset) for a sat phone so far.
Still trying to decide if I want to mess with it. Chances are good they will have a successful launch but risk-reward is probably 50-50.
CA,
UIS should of broken by now no? Is that a shooting star and doji on the 10min chart?
Thinking of taking profits here
Check out CEDC
ES - now we’re talking…
We might get a whole 1 point move out of this one!!
Yo CA-
You feel anything for KOG on the daily?
DTG breakout?
nice reversal in MVIS today
Gone till next week, Happy 4th everyone!!!
90%Kash, 10% UNG@13.78.
Throwing CWTR on my radar…
CA - you mentioned some time ago that you have UNG in a long-term portfolio.
How long is “long” for you and what is the reasoning behind it: is it purely technical or is it a fundamental decision?
MVIS being dressed up for the Q. Picked it yesterday, but got stopped out today… LOL..
domino - for UIS, I’m looking at the daily chart.
KOG - maybe, but not comfortable
UNG - technical
while i’m at it,
with UIS, are you looking for a move today or a gap up tomorrow?
ES 912.75 - want the high 914’s
will cut fast if it fails (again)
ES - out 913 +.25
suck it ES
CA,plz canu tell why cant i post comment in RC blog???? whom should i contact for that
leave a comment on RC’s blog. He will take care of it.
GUYS, JUST A REMINDER:
Talking to a few of my buddies, expect VERY VOLATILE moves near the close. MOC (market on close) orders should be very active as indexers have to buy/sell things for qtr end. Make sure you stick around till the close.
NYSE stocks will move @ 3:40pm when the MOC imbalance is posted, and NASDAQ names @ 3:50pm. Should be fun!
i did that CA..but i cant see that in comments box….something wrong..
AEZS looks interesting for biotech lotto
I’ll be putting a stop under my PODD here and locking in a crummy 7.3 % profit - not unhappy of course, it’s just been a slow couple of days meltup rather than a breakout.
Bought OMEX $1.58
ES buy 913.25
In CWTR at 6.05
ES sell 915.75 +2.5
packing up my chicken and my sewing machine and sailing any in my canoe.
Quiz:
Who knows why I started posting my trades since 3 months ago?
Track record for your new service?
Well I for one don’t have a clue what your talking about retox but keep up the good work! It seems to be working for you!
To show us you’re the man.
Fly had his henchmen hold you at gunpoint?
Tired of people calling you a pussy?
CA - You posted because your lizard told you to!
Posting trades is the most perfect response to the haters. I am about to hit a 200% YTD 2009 return, and it’s been proven.
Now that I’ve proved myself, I don’t have a need to be posting trades anymore.
AEZS is looking good… I would wait for it to break out a bit though.
Picked up MGO.TO and CEDC for a potential swing play. CEDC is a call on lower dollar.
That is an awesome return CA. Please don’t stop posting. You are the man
out CWTR, +.10…a little end of Q2 win
Holding PALM, +1.48
Holding SPPI, +1.11
Holding BORL at BE
My guess is a combination of shutting up the people calling bs and doing preliminary advertising for the various ventures (such as this training thing, the book you’ve mentioned considering, and your pending copyright on Blank Box) you’ve mentioned through the history of your blogs. Looks to me like you’re considering repackaging and monetizing your knowledge.
Mike,
Just remember the market does not owe anyone shit - ever - for any reason.
But the market owed me that last one!
CNXT b/o
CA, been a very long time since you had to prove anything to anyone. You beat the snot out of the crash of ‘08.
nice rip on CNXT at the close
I’m in OMEX and UIS at the close.! Still holding YGE and THQI from three days ago. Opinions on THQI and YGE– anyone?
How about continuing to post your trades, not because of CA haters, but for the CA lovers?
My plays win again today.
Good day to you.
What do I win by having the right answer on the quiz? Prob a swift kick to the nuts.
Dude - simply put, you’re the man. Best of luck if you cease posting your trades…many around this here site, including me, will suffer. But you have nothing to prove to anyone.
CA you’ve been very generous with sharing your ideas for free, I’d be the first to sign up if you want to offer a trading alert service.
ES trades for today
4 trades +5 points
Funny how I feel so beat up on a day that ended well.
http://s699.photobucket.com/albums/vv352/retox13/?action=view¤t=esjune30.jpg
CA - your blog is one of the first things I read before the market opens, and I’m grateful for everything that you write. Your trading skills are unreal and unmatched. I know it’s probably pointless for you to post all of your trades because you have little else to prove, but just think of all the others that you’ve helped along the way. Your trades and knowledge help others who in turn try and help others (Pay-It-Forward). Your name comes up in conversations that I have with people all of the time. Keep it up man, you’re doing good things. What you do is contagious, that’s all I gotta say. Don’t do it for the haters, do it for the ladies.
SIRI sell .42 (.37 on 6/17) Should have sold earlier.
AEZS has a product in phase III trials. For more lotto ideas check this out. Gives drug development status, which is helpful for timing. http://biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/1355-biomedreports-fda-calendar-hot-summer-trades.html
Currently long HGSI $3.24 (bot too early)
SPPI $5.60
CNXT $1.39
I stink when the market behaves like it has for the last two weeks - I have a slew of good wins, and think I ride them pretty good, but I hang on to losers too long. Today was a lot of work for a quarter point overall loss. Much to learn…next phase like this I might just try going almost all cash and only work 3 or 4 positions at a time a al CA’s advice. Still holding BRKR - doing nothing ($10 loss from a few days ago) - but thinking if it shows any weakness it must go.
I hope this will always be a place for people to honestly post their trades - for me it’s a big learning experience to commit in writing - inviting criticism and comment, and maybe even offering up something of value. I definitely and most gratefully poach ideas and trades from CA - and others here, who wouldn’t.
Not that you will, but should you EVER - for whatever reason - need a confirming, unimpeachable reference about your totally insane performance during one of the greatest bears of all time CA, give me a holler.
I have enough proof. I have 6 friends/students who I taught personally since the Crash who have been through it with me. When I wrote at Seeking Alpha, I called the Crash on September 5th. The same article is on GreenFaucet. Doc, you must have been with me when I started my WeeklyTA blog, right?
My trading record is impeccable since I started my original blog back in late August:
# 2009 May: +35.41%
# 2009 April: +55.10%
# 2009 March: +2.37%
# 2009 February: +14.11%
# 2009 January: +37.52%
# 2008 December: +24.79%
# 2008 November: +56.31%
# 2008 October: +61.41%
# 2008 September: +27.62%
June 2009 should be around *+40-45%
CA, thanks for everything you did for us. i really hope that you will start a trading alert service like Rorschach said . i am sure it will attract a lot to join.
insane performance… I wonder how FLY can diss technical analysis when you’re hitting homeruns left and right by your mastery of it
KVA up 522.74% WTF?
CA incredible performance and your insight is much appreciated … looking forward to so much more to come.
Ok, Google shows a + 522% AH on KV.A. is this for real? i don’t see any news. i am calling my broker
NM, its a glitch
Great stats CA.
Appreciate all the posts! And answering all of our questions.
Can’t remember when I first spotted your Weekly TA through Seeking Alpha, but it would have been after the worst of it in the fall when I was halved, and determined not to be a victim of my own stupidity and laxness for the second time in 10 years. Wish I had been interested in this stuff BEFORE all hell broke loose.
Initially my gut told me everyone was BS (correct) - but I did connect somewhat with another blogger, randomroger who I still read regularly. Eventually I tossed SA and GreenFaucet except for a couple of writers - but I kept my eye on your stuff because I thought you were the most BS of all.
Natch, I was brutalized through February as well as just punishment for my egregious sin. However, as per Family Guy “I may be an idiot sir, but if there’s one thing I’m not it’s an idiot” (after longer than it should have been) I could see you were simply extraordinarily prepared for this market - so I started joining a couple of trades you’d recommend, blending a bit with randomroger since I’m really not a pure day / swing trader at heart. Made a lot on your ideas, principles, your insane calls, some wild ass runs in TIN, AA, FCX, and also by being heavily into FAS without a break for the right 11 weeks. I hope I never need to have a 3 month run like that again, coming all the way back from a 50% haircut. But of course that was luck, coming when I was ready for it. In my case, your writing has changed me from an absolute know nothing, to a novice with bullet points and a plan (and a meaningful portfolio again).
In short, yeah, I followed you here, and will hunt you down like a dog if you move. Your IP address will never be safe.
CA, I think you’ve made a wise choice by not posting your trades anymore. Too many people leech off of you and don’t learn anything. You’ve proven yourself, so hopefully you’ll be around to answer the questions that are posed by people that really do want to learn. Thanks for everything you’ve taught us!
CA, Do you think the reverse splits of FAS and FAZ will be a good opportunity to get short on both of them?
why? It’s not the best use of capital.
Bill - good stuff.
Yes, I fucking hate leeches. Out of all the bloggers here, I hate the leeches the most.
If you are a leech and I missed your IP ban, then it’s your lucky day, for now.