So I hit up the 30 day volatility chart of USO expecting to see……I don’t know, something interesting.
Pretty much neither here nor there I have to say.
But wait, there’s more. Lots of chatta about Oil Contango on the TV. Sounds more like a Cinemax movie than futures premium over spot though.
And hey, we have “volatility contango”. Longer dated options trade higher than shorter ones. Which in and of itself is unremarkable, I mean we have the everywhere now.
No, what makes it significant is that longer term volatility has spiked to 43, roughly the 52 week high of the 30 day measure. And that is very unusual, seeing long dated options trade at the peak level of the shorter term measure. I have no recollection ever seeing that setup in a rising volatility environment.
And as such, if this tells us something cosmic, it will only become obvious in hindsight.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
go ahead, stick your neck out & tell us your best guess? we promise not to throw it back in your face like a bitter jilted x or a miserable creetin lurker.
lmao.
It’s unique I guess, can’t look at it like a stock. My GUESS is it’s a sign a turn is coming, but I don’t want to sound like one of those nitwit serial-top callers.
Great article Adam.
thanks
Is it worth buying BUD calls here, and how far out do you think we should go?
I almost bought these fuckers in the beginning of the week when I saw this thing moving, too…
yeah, i tend to want to avoid it at this point. Calls very pumped now, you wonder how much premium would it go for in a deal.
Well, they are talking about $65 as being the deal price.
Stock’s just a tad below $57.
I got tired of waiting for you and “took a taste” of September BUDIK’s.
well, good luck. I would generally be a broken record and avoid those. And of course would miss a ton of them.
I think its telling us to sell short term calls, otm.
big ass premium. No way does USO go to 200 by 3rd week of June
you don’t need to be a top caller to guess that, right?
agreed, but not sure someone will pay you for those, lol.
On one hand it seems like such a classic “magazine cover” top now, I mean CNBC running round the clock coverage and all. On the other hand 90% of the guests say it’s the top and they can’t all be right (although the same group has called the top for $70 now).