2 If you still haven’t realized we are in a bear market then you need a new hobby. I recommend fly fishing or coin collecting, leave this trading shit to people like me as I can recognize a trend faster then I recognize water on a rainy day. Granted, I will give you some slack as this has been a sloppy year and quite an erratic bear market. However, that does not change the fact that if you are still looking for long ideas in my opinion you’re in the wrong camp. You should continue to look for short ideas until this market can at the very least move above 1,300.
Bottom line, you assholes need to keep it simple. Quit trying to find a magic formula, that shit doesn’t exist. Quit trying to run these bullshit historical models that will blow you up when they are wrong. Learn to recognize a trend and trade with it. If there isn’t a trend, chances are that’s because we are in a wild bear market(such as this one).
I’m still looking for shorts, while keeping an eye out for longs. Trust me, I would love nothing greater then to buy MSFT, INTC, IBM, MCD and WMT. I would sit back and watch these names increase five fold in the next several years, giving me unlimited time to enjoy life. Unfortunately, that’s a fairy tale land; one I will never live in. Knowing this, I’m looking to destroy the world via shorting the market.
Maybe I’m wrong and this market continues higher. If that were to happen, firstly I’m sure I would look like a complete dick. Secondly, I would be going long. Currently, I’m in it for the short term till we can move away from this area of congestion. I understand the market will bottom on bad news. However, the news hasn’t gotten all that bad. Lets face it. We’ve gotten some weak economic numbers, but nothing has blown up.
Don’t ask me why, but I will share my view on the markets. My current thesis looks something like this. Weak numbers from the US and Japan will put a strain on the economic situation in the BRIC’s. While a default in the EU would push the BRIC’s into recession. Currently, a recession in the BRIC’s is already about to happen, check yield curves(This is probably because austerity measures are WORSE then a default). Problems in the BRIC’s will alleviate pressures in the US, via lower oil prices. Possibly, at a time when oil prices are SUB $60 I could see the market moving higher. With oil prices stuck around $100 the economy is in stand still. Without oil prices lower, I don’t see any reason to be long stocks.
The economy seems to be oscillating between economic growth due to low oil prices and economic contraction due to high oil prices. Seems to me that $100 is the sweet spot. Just cheap enough for the economy to work, but too expensive for the economy to work well. I could be way off in saying the above, but this is how I see things. I keep it simple.
2 Responses to “Don’t Kid Yourself”
Sargent Schultz aka waterlogz
The market continues to be propped up by the Boyz.. otherwise it would have fallen already and maybe would have been back closer to reality. When it falls again it wont be pretty. Best to be short long term till then.Time will tell…
zenhunter
who is to say the strategies of yours or mine are not magical formulas? Historical pattern has its use and purpose as long as you apply proper money management.
Trading is a very tough endeavor that only a minority can make money consistently. Those who persist in this endeavor for years already developed a very personal trading system (thru evolution of their own trials and errors that embedded with their very personal touch of trade/money management giving their portfolio size).
In other words, your interpretation of someone system as being “not-simple” is only thru your personal looking glasses. Meanwhile, the persons you are interpreting may see their system as very simple due to their years of using it.
Believe it or not, everyone’s method of analyzing the market is their very own magical formula. It has to be; otherwise, you won’t stand a chance in this piranha infected market.
Having faith in your system with PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT and the ability to adapt is the key to survival.
Btw, my interpretation is that it is still too early to call a bear market. If you look at the weekly chart of SPY, all I see is a consolidation from Mid-Aug to now. Look a bit more and you see a triangle forming. I believe once this triangle is broken (either to the upside or downside) do we then have a better picture of where the longer trend is heading.
Good Hunting!