GGGRRR-IND

We continue to grind higher regardless of what you think, feel or believe. The market seeks to fuck your belief system up, and its doing just that. The Wall of Worry is vertical and growing faster and wider than the wall seperating Israel from the Palestinians. They figured out how to build a wall. So have the Chinese. What’s wrong with us?

Look, overbought markets stay overbought and today is not an exception. Knowing that there has been every opportunity to crack the market wide open–but that it didn’t happen–might very well be the excuse to be confident. But now we are magically through our SPX 1120 target and 1130 is big resistance. Somehow we should now expect a test of the January highs IF we can continue to probe the 1130 area. I don’t want to believe that could or would happen just now, but we seem to be on our way there.

Don’t chase and stay with existing positions with your finger on the trigger. All that is missing is volume, as usual.

Here’s what I’ve done since arriving here at IBC about a month ago:

• Forecast a pullback to SPX 1040 test: check
• Reco’d several stocks: check
• Every stock moved in the right direction: check
• Forecast SPX 1120 as the top of our range: check
• Forecast a “dip and rip” and fell to 1085 and now ripping higher: check

Now what? Stay tuned!

So, the market bent but didn’t break in last week’s whiteout. And today, the first day of the month, is a party-fest.

We are on our way to the SPX 1120-1130 area. We will carefully examine each of our positions initiated on IBC. We DO recommend a lot more things to do, but they are behind a paywall. Imagine if you had that here at IBC…Stocks, charts (maybe some fundamental analysis too) and special video? On IBC.

I don’t claim to have Merlin-like powers, nor can I travel time. I don’t have a spaceship either. But I do know how to hit doubles, triples and an occassional in-the-park home run. I also outline the plan BEFORE I make a trade–and keep the losses small. I try not to figure it out AFTER I’m stuck.

More, later…

The market has has every reason to drop and test the 1050 area again. Maybe the guys & gals on Maiden Lane are working through the snow, but maybe the market just needs to climb a really steep wall of worry for now.

The new month begins on Monday. Expect the prerequisite inflo of cash into the stock and commodities markets–and expect our SPX 1120 area to be attempted.

I’m going out now to feed the shovelling gorilla. 2 feet of snow!

So, markets are hammered on the fear of a meltdown in Europe. Guess what? We are becoming them. All we need are union protest marches in Times Square or Pennsylvania Ave. Don’t worry, when the states start fucking with the union pensions and benefits because they are out of money, watch out.

In the meantime, Bernanke is kinda telling it like it is for a change. Hard to believe…But the truth usually hurts and the fact is the problems that hit in 2008 are still here–only delayed with about $2 trillion in “hard” dollars and $12 in “soft” dollars to cushion the blow. Notice whenever the market is weak we pundits trot out this fact? We do it because it is the 800lb. gorilla, ready to throw shit in our faces when we least expect it.

The market is on the defensive after tagging SPX 1112.42. Close, but no cigar to our target of 1120. The first downside line in the sand is at 1080, then at 1050. A test of the lower portion of the trading range could be a good thing if you are looking for the further definition of the lower portion of our trading range. A marginal break would be even better because it would get everyone scared and out. Watch for the spike in the VIX. So far it is stuck in complacency mode or telling us to get long this bruising sell off.

Yesterday Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] was rocked–but only back to the middle of its trading range and to our average cost (11.50) without hitting my $10 stop. Don’t get me wrong–this is a shitty company and has been for years. But it is the de-facto trade for aluminum and the dollars’ effect on commodities. And some would call it cheap. My target is still 14.50–for now.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] remains the object of controversy and scorn because everyone in the world bought their shit. They are certainly not wholly responsible for the mess we’re in, but they are the only ones who have the money to cover some of it. We bought some on a break of 150 (149) and have set a super-tight 147 stop. That order is in, period. No fuckin around with this one. My target remains 170.

Oceaneering International [[OII]] is rocking the house. L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. [[lll]] is consolidating. Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. [[KLIC]] is still a huge winner. Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. [[hcbk]] remains the nations best and most undervalued regional bank. And Telecom Corp of New Zealand (ADR) [[NZT]] should be bought every time it dips below 8.00. Current yield is 9% and safe…

I’m going out now to help the gorilla shake the snow off my bushes…

Century Aluminum Company [[cenx]] just reported a shitty number. They have been reporting shitty numbers since the stock was about $70. So today should be no different.

This stock has become the de-facto speculators aluminum trade. It is now back to what I paid for it about 2 weeks ago after buying it twice, near 11.50.

My target was 14.50 and it didn’t get there this time. I am setting a 10 stop on the stock and I will keep you updated.

My other names are holding well. But we will always adapt to the changing market condition if need be. So far, the SPX 1075-1080 area is my downside “stop and reverse” target. Pay attention!