A new short idea on CreateCoin…

Now we’ve got a lagging long and an overextended short.

BALLS OF STEEL or aluminum in this case…

Actually, the risk versus reward is very favorable…

The market is trading with the bullet-proof arrogance of an end-of-the-quarter markup. If it won’t go down, it must go up and vice versa…

The return of the speculative darlings, Citi, AIG, etc. and the Biotech group means the market will need to make a new high. Nasdaq already has and we are in the midst of the best rally since last July. In fact, the technicals look very much like the Aug-Sept-Oct. uptrend where we would gain 80 SPX points in the beginning of the month, then lose 60 points for the remainder of the month. This drop and rally is just taking longer.

Expect the SPX and DOW to make a marginal high. Maybe to DOW 11k, SPX 1165. Then everyone will be on board because it will be “wine and roses” for all. Then watch out…

We are busy making the first day of postings to our new site. So far there are multiple market commentaries, a new stock recommendation and a few charts of the major indices.

If there are questions, please post. Thanks!

Ladies & Gentlemen,

I am pleased to introduce the IBC’s latest creation: CreateCoin Premium Edition with me, Scott Bleier.

I’ve spent a long time watching the endless parade of “guru’s” and market prognosticators come on TV and tout the party line. Perma-Bulls and Perma-Bears who couldn’t change market direction even if hit with a sledgehammer.

I decided long ago that I would work to forecast the market’s next major move and not be wedded to one way of thinking.  My non-directional bias would lead me to form an actionable forecast for the markets and individual stocks. I would adapt to the changing market condition.

My methods are rooted in the merging of technical and fundamental analysis. I know everyone says they do that now, but for a long time, the two never mixed. Now, using one without the other is a recipe for disaster. Rest assured that the perspective will be very broad encompassing the factors that could move markets. But the articulation of my ideas will be presented in an easy to read graphical form.

The interwebs are filled with lots of noise that you get for free. You get what you pay for. I will help keep your head on straight, be pointed in the right direction, be aware of the perverse logic of Wall Street and help you make and keep your coin. It’s not free, but it’s worth it.

The Goldman buy of thousands of SP futures yesterday sure was a great speculation, right? All the levitation of stocks and the refusal of the market to pull back is now justified, in hindsight.

Since testing the SPX 1040 area, our upside target has been 1120, and after hemming and hawing in that area, we have blasted right through it and are now on the verge of challenging the January highs. It really doesn’t matter what the employment number was. The VIX staying below 20 told the story. Now it is 17.50, a post-crash low.

This time, when it was obvious, it was obvious for a change. It just shows that we must be ready to adapt to the changing market conditions at a moments notice.

We lightened up yesteday by selling our most economically sensitive stocks and they continue to rise today. Oh well. Ringing the bell is ok with me and they remain a great sell as they approach their pre-determined targets. 

After this little bust-out in the major averages, there should be a test of the highs. But I want you to be ready for anything–especially a typical trading range reversal. I anticipate another pullback in which to get long some laggard stocks but it may take until next week to get it. Then, if we simply pause, we may have to jump in for a quick trade. But as of now, you should lighten up while the lightening up is good and easy…

If you want to see the chart setup for this move, please look a few posts back to “this is what a contracting triangle looks like”  who says technical analysis is for shitheads?