Over the Mountain

Trading stocks is one thing. There, you make a bet and it either works or it doesn’t. There is usually no time parameter nor requirement, unless you are a degenerate gambler speculating with options. Joking.

When forecasting stocks or the broad market, most will try to predict price but seldom time. Usually you get the innocuous “12 month target”. You seldom get specific and realistic time & price together in once forecast.

I’ve long had a April 16th target for the market to head down the other side of Heartbreak Hill (PQ Wall). I was off by a few days as the market has been under distribution for several weeks and the deterioration began in earnest at the beginning of the month. Last Thursday’s one way squeezefest was just that. And a smokescreen too. That the parabolic leadership has broken confirms it.

Sure, it is a long-overdue pullback and a broken clock is right once a day, etc. My thought of a double top–on a negative divergence–this or next week is still a possibility. But please don’t say you were not warned with a very specific time target in mind.

We’ll continue to worry about Europe and earnings and everything else and pray for more Free Money. And some will admire the Secret Service who have taken a vacation recommendation from Ben Bernanke. He’s been going to Cartegena for hookers and blow since 2008.