Couple weekends back, we discussed how last week would likely be a “pain trade” set-up in the market last week. Looking back, seems like that’s exactly how it went down.
Throughout the week, the market would rally off the open for about 30-40 minutes, drawing in longs, then selling off into the close each day. With the exception of Thursday, of course.
So the weeks activity was built to trigger a more bearish posture, or to whip you off the ride before the move. Now you’re in a predicament here, because you can either chase this up at higher prices, or wait it out for something better.
These types of set-ups give you a chase, or another week of pain. I haven’t been able to determine if people were really eager to chase this up yet, and my initial thought is that they weren’t. That being the case, moves higher are what triggers the most pain here. We’ll discuss this through the week on After Hours with Option Addict.
OA
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I don’t see how anyone bought the gap. This slow fade would seem to confirm. The most possible pain I could envision would be three up days into Brexit, never giving the timid a chance to get on (or cover), then liftoff. (note i didn’t say likely)
agree. doesn’t feel like a chase yet.
They don’t at first. That’s what I am saying. If people aren’t buying this, the market slowly backs down…finds no buyers. Then you see a gap up again tomorrow, or some shit like that.
*2ThumbsUp
Not market related but happy for Dustin Johnson and the city of Cleveland – USGA blew that call on DJ.
Non market related is awesome this time of year. Feel free…lol
they should’ve shown more Paulina!
winning the US Open was the 2nd best thing DJ did yesterday.
true Matt – they showed PLENTY of Paulina – ha
VPL
OA, I’ve got a quick question for you. What conditions/indicators/factors do you use when identifying whether the market is in pain-trade mode or not? Is it dependent on speed, breadth, other elements? Any insight here would be much appreciated. Thank you in advance.
All those things, but mostly my observation of sentiment.
Thanks OA for the response.
UEPS on anyone’s radar?
closed on the lows. very interesting.
I bought NQ at 4390.5. Right after the bell. Pain is up, as I was saying.
Hope so boss. Have a couple 3x long etfs
Closed lows and now up 12 off them.
Yen ruining things. Those japs….
Saw a lot of people saying how today was really weak and there’s no justification for the move. Guys like Dan Zanger saying only rookies chase the gap up.
We’ll end of day sure provided better buys so it’s not like they are giving bad advice
That’s why I waited til the close.
Another “Bet the House” setup in BAC. Lots of call buying yesterday. Looking for a fast move to $17+
Bought shares @ 13.64 in PM.
Fuck the Ark
#WTFisinthewaterinPrinceton
Like that $BAC trade, I’m in it with BAC/WS/A, prolly adding some calls in here today.
Glad you guys have joined. The banks look pretty good
Bot more GWPH shares
GWPH looks interesting. Any idea if they are part of LABU? Looking for re-entry in that.
Never mind – that was a dumb question. Do t think cannabis stocks make the list. LOL
Man bio been such a dud.
Hey OA, this newb is averaged into SYNC around $3.05…..any thoughts? Last weeks run has me a bit spooked. Any thoughts? Thanks for your hard work!
I like stocks that consolidate like this. Usually means there is another move coming
10-4 champ
Not sure I understand “bio a dud” comment. XBI been making higher highs and higher lows since Feb 9.
This. All the trends (IBB XBI) are intact. Don’t see any reason to panic but I still hope I can get maybe 26 on LABU
Today’s ur day
You’re almost there – in the 26’s
Staying with OA and staying long. Bought LABU here $27.60.
Double down??
LABU smokin’ Love it. Cha Ching
Nice!
Jeff — any YOLO’s into the vote? I was eyeballing GOOGL 730’s and TSLA 230s
I like GOOGL a lot. TSLA looks good, but I’d think. it gets sold at 230 again
GOOGL seems to be your go-to. I am going to take a swing later this afternoon
$PACB looks like a buy.
$MOS and $POT have my eye.
Gasman’s $EVEP too.
And I keep staring at the banks (I was a week early on that conviction, luckily I didn’t get started buying yet).
OA – do you worry as much about Implied Volatility on lower beta stuff like $MOS and $POT? Their IV is up a bit, but still in the 30’s and low 40’s. I wasn’t sure if that made it less significant. Not sure if I would initiate anything today or wait for tomorrow anyways, but trying to get my ducks in a row ahead of time.
REGN is trading similar to TWTR below 14….expecting a nice pop out of these 52 week lows
OA, can I have your opinion on EEFT please? Thank you.
Bot GOOGL next week’s 750 calls @ .25 and a couple DIA this week’s 182 calls @ .07
Watch DB as a tell in the future direction of equities….ignore any loonatics whose headlines are in BOLD RED.
Fuck the Ark and all the pussy faggots driving it
Yeah. F*ck Fly. No idea how he has lost his magic touch.
BANNED.
Oh shit, yeah, I can do that too.
TLT is up 14% for the year.
Silence.
Everything else you recommended its down 50%
Ive recommended nothing, so you’re a liar.
Habt was a great pick
BCHU
I sold HABT on March the 13th, 2015 above $30. You can ask anyone who is a member of Exodus to support this claim.
DIA about to test HOD….FOMO departs on a move out of today’s range
BAC next week’s 15’s are a cheap way to ride the FOMO train
BAC’s are pretty cheap going out a few weeks…
Semi’s affirming the upside….AMAT HOD. LRCX had a slug of call buying recently and KLAC is well bid.
All aboard the FOMO Train
HPE, QCOM good too.
really like the action in HPE
Weakness Ideas: PCLN AVGO CYNO
PYPL
EXAS is also likely to move 10%+ higher from here
FAS July 29 calls@ .33 — cheap bet on a breakout in Financial Stocks
Hey, thank you for the ideas flowing through here today.
I bot NFLX puts this morning and some GOOGL next week calls this afternoon
Anyone holding SCTY calls?
*MEDICARE `IPAB’ COST PANEL NOT TRIGGERED THIS YEAR, U.S. SAYS
Still gonna wait another year for #IPAB
Nice calls kidstockibc. BAC FAS REGN GWPH
Nice calls kidtockibc. BAC REGN FAS GWPH
OA, are you adding FB ? Thanks.
No $FB here.
CAKE getting interesting.
Order in to YOLO some $IBB
Anyone getting back in $LABU here?
Watching it. Not sure why it spiked or what caused the market sell-off. Haven’t been able to pay attention. Did get out at $29.45 so looks tempting but will see how the end of day plays out or if it gets under $27.
*MEDICARE `IPAB’ COST PANEL NOT TRIGGERED THIS YEAR, U.S. SAYS
Still gonna wait another year for #IPAB
This is why it spiked. Market sell off was because of two more polls out showing leave inching up. But there is a yuge disconnect between the bookie odds (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result) and the polls. I’m going to go with the bookies being right.
Thank you very much. Read your earlier post and at the time didn’t compute. Agree that bookies usually right but when they are wrong they are wrong big.
I think we see 25 on LABU. VTAE is a bio idea that has good profile and easy to manage risk.
MOS, POT coiling. MON making a flag.
I’m liking the $26.60-$26.80 area that it seems to have bounced off of the last 2 days. But $25 would be nicer.
OA
When do you think $WYNN gets interesting ? Last few days its dropping a lot, from the highs of the day.
Back in January