I finally did it. I took a 12% position in TZA earlier this afternoon and just booted about a half a dozen option positions in order to get small.
As witnessed lately, the market is using surges in strength to sell into, which is what you ought to do as well.
I’ve spent three of my worst months in years going from up big, to flat, to down, to up big, back to flat. I’m not ready to give back any more from here.
Call it an adjustment or capitulation, but I had to make a change.
The goal will be smaller number of positions, balanced with longs and shorts. I’m not bearish, but there is obviously more opportunity trading both sides here than there has been in the past.
OA
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Current version of OABot(My interpretation of OA into code) now is able to determine what is working right now based upon breadth, score, and relative volume across categories of Risk Cycle Classification, Market Cap classification, Sector, Industry,etc.
It does not yet assess “what is next” in the cycle, but the next update will.
The idea is to automate idea generation so there is never a shortage of ideas and so time can be focused elsewhere. Some days there are too many ideas and I then will handpick the best dozen or two. The midday results for today have been posted in the AH chat.
good insight for last days action
nevertheless volume (the selling ) is uninspiring..
could be some gold club players game .. short term lived ..
I’d be interested in hearing what you look for in a short setup today in AH.
Will you remind me about this tomorrow? I forgot to expand on that…only looked at one example briefly.
I capitulated on YGE/TSL, and thinking about puts on GNW, QIHU and/or YUM.
And maybe JNPR.
Moved to cash completely… capitulated!
Not a bad move, but we might have a pretty good bounceback in the next couple of days, now that we retraced back to 185 on SPY. A lower high next week might signal further downside.
Operative word here is MIGHT.
Yes i see that the gap from last week has filled now.. But still that MACD sell signal in the indices.. VIX perking up… Selling on strength… Seems like sellers have some advantage here than buyers! Last week’s big bounce might be similar fake one like what we saw in January
Even if we see further downside, the most I can see it going down in this market is SPY 182. What is that, another 2%? That’s just fine, and long is still the best route for pops…
The head and shoulders folks will start talking, though, if that happens…
Too many losses are bothering me now.. Just cleaning up all to re-evaluate.. I am not inclined to buy anything till things clear up.. looks to me like a day trading environment so far.. and i am not doing that
The word play makes me smile on a day the market decides to ruin my AMZN cocaine party.
Been watching DATA for a while and purchased Apr; 95’s for 3.5. It’s holding up in the bloodshed (including my own)
RVLT is nearing the end of a sweet falling wedge.
That gap might need to fill first….wait for it, wait for it….
That would also make for a nice post b/o retest.
It’s ALIVE!!
Nice work Lou! My apologies for trying to deter your convictions! My bad!
The OA Bottom.
it would be real nice if that ended up being true.
Oh man…say it ain’t so. but bought some SPY calls
I think that 3 word statement is good enough for a bottom in my estimation!
Would be nice to see a lot of these higher beta names get more a bid.. Definitely seems like the market is down more than what the major indices even say right now.. at least looking at my portfolio.
anyone see any promising YOLO’s to hold through tomorrow?
Not on YOLO – maybe a YOLALB (a little bit) – but anything sub $53 in TWTR might get me interested in a Mar monthly…
I put on a full position in april calls. Did you guys see the bollinger squeeze on this sucker? Not to mention zero implied volatility or sentiment
only longs to be had for the next few days will be the miners on pullbacks imo. I’m in AG and EGO from yesterdays close. I see big channel breaks on the SPY IWM QQQ daily’s.
Intraday discouragement waggles on the SPX?
Complete with the dip yesterday to hit “panic on the sentiment chart. We will see, but looking sentiment chart-like.
I would say we had an Enthusiasm top if we keep heading down….
I guess those were just waggles on the way to lower prices.
Can someone experienced in reading TICK explain today’s observation? I was expecting oversold reading for long durations in a day like today with such a nice trend day down in indices. is there some conclusion to draw from this?
Holy cow, Villanova beat at the buzzer
And now FSU at the buzzer! March Madness rules
Bot Spy puts when I got the alert on TZA
I bought ASM
Never heard of that one. Even perennial dog KGC catching a bid
TZA calls folks. It’s not too late. I think we have plenty of downside.
Been calling short for 2 weeks now. Asked everyone what would propel the mkt without qe, etc was met with this from azulgrina “lol. hows that 25 basis point trade working on your cash savings acct right now….thats why”
Love to hear your take now sir
i wouldn’t be so quick to gloat. we are only 40 S&P points off the highs. There’s a long way to go before we hit your target of 1600
Nobody cares.
my comment is that you cant predict the macro. ive seen your commentary, you consistently confuse the macro with the technical, and without accountability. using your approach, i could say the reason the market is going down is bc the authorities cant find a malaysian airplane.
Going short two weeks ago you would be exactly flat to where we are today.. Who is this guy?? -200 days really brings the characters out of the woodwork, doesn’t it?
YUM $75 put – Mar monthly.
$SPY at support of prior highs. Call me crazy, but just loaded up on March SPY calls.
whats the support level you see?
Right around 184.40 level.
Gap filled. Closed puts reversed to some longs.
I’m not gloating. Im just trying to get some insight on why everyone here continues to be bullish. Ive given valid points to the downside but all I get in return is brush offs and cheap shot answers. Just trying to learn an discuss ideas civilly here but I guess “no one cares”
you want insight? thats not free, we pay for it.ive seen the commentary in our after hours session, we’re not bullish, we’re opportunistic, we get in, we get out. but when i hear you QE guys say ‘finally, we are going down” like youve said for 4 years…its just a bandaid, you search for any comment to validate your position…tomorrow it will be the hindenburg omen, when that doesnt work, it will be because the bulls on wallstreet decided to short stuff…after that some MACD cross omen
I’ll take the bait. I’ve been a real bear for a long time now. Completely believe the market is a pyramid scheme destined to crash and burn some day. Guess what? Staying out of the market the last few years hasn’t made me any money. For better or worse we’ve been up a lot more over the past few years than down. I don’t think the trend has changed, but maybe it has. I’ll keep my position size tight, and my timeframe short, adjusting to what the market brings. Over the last 2 months most of my CALLs have been 100% + profitable. My exits have sucked more than my direction but that’s me losing money the options gods are doing their best to give me. Should I start buying all puts because of it? Not in my opinion, there is no real evidence we’re in a bear market yet. Trade whatever makes you money. This group has a positive bias. And to be honest I prefer to look for positive opportunities because looking for negative opportunities reminds me of my bearish nature.
Long some short dated MUs
Anybody else sensing a flush to come? This time feels different. Lol
hope this is the flush
You must have one of those low-flow toilets.
40 points off the highs is far from a flush. There are some serious turds out there, going to need to do better than 40 points to get them down.
Looking forward to seeing some of Jeff’s short ideas.
We’ll see if tomorrow brings the courtesy flush. I welcome these all the time, but could do without one here.
OA,
Did you partial capitulation include YGE?
Thanks
Never. YGE is my 5th child. I applied for a job there for stock options and happy endings.
Thanks for the reply. YGE is my largest position (its shares). I may dip into some calls on it soon.
XIN has been a rough ride, but it’s getting tight again on intraday timeframes.
There u go. A semi real answer. First of all I haven’t been short until this month. Been long during these qe propelled yrs. now that its going away there will be no more POMO days to lift the mkt in the near future. you think big fund managers would buy the mkt here knowing that? I don’t think so. They’ve made their money now they wil want to buy cheaper not buy here. Does that sound wrong to u?
Yeah man, tough to be a reader here for a year and to only be known as the guy that gloated on a 1% down day in the SPY. Way to show up for the win.
Sound effect for all his future posts.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC75aU47GRk
I think it’s your tone, it sucks!
Showing up for the win? I questioned ur call last week when everyone was long and u said the market was just getting started. All u did is respond with one word quips while ur loyal stratonites came to ur aid beating down the idea. I’ve given u props on calls a multitude of times but I guess this forum only works for those that agree with u blindly and cheer u on. Didn’t know everyone would be so hurt making a call for s&p to 1600s but hey that’s just my view. No need to hate
Don’t be an asshole. Start a blog.
you are really off the mark here.. and yep, it’s official!! Your tone sucks!
Maybe if I say s&p to 2000 everyone will be like yeah let’s go!! Smh haters gon hate
youre barking up the wrong tree. the point is alot of guys here dont care where the mkt goes, i for one trade individual setups and couldnt give a shit about POMO going away, either the setup works or it doesnt, hence why waste time trying to predict what POMO is going to do. you wanna worry about POMO, go trade treasuries for PIMCO
Buccs there’s ur cue for the sound effect hater
Naw, man ……the crickets are more appropriate.
K. FYI I’m not taking credit for being right until my call to 1600 hits so I will remain short until then or return to being long when they announce an increase in stimulus again. I know it’s been a rough day for u longs but don’t accuse me of showing up for the win cuz I’ll be the first one to admit when I’m wrong. And don’t worry I’ll stop posting here since the requirement to comment here is to agree with every idea u have
Or you can simply fuck off.
old school +1 +1
LOL x100..
moyac.. how bout you not post until your call to 1600 becomes right?
Hey power to u azul. If all u do if trade based on technicals then good luck. I worry about fundamentals cuz I’m longer term
My mistake thinking I could talk fundamentals here when this is a technical group. Carry on
LOL.
OA immature retard. All you do is front run low floaters and have ur thousands of followers run ur stocks up. Fuckin pump n dump ass. No respect for ppl like u. Block my ass cuz arguing this is now a waste of time
Haha, means a lot coming from the little guy begging on the outside for help with the membership fee cause he has lost most of his money betting against the market.
Ah, there we go!! LOL!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK6TXMsvgQg
This failure is infectious…here’s your proper sound effect: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A
The silence is telling.
Very telling. A keyboard version of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW4eLfC1Udw#t=19
“Don’t be an asshole. Start a blog.” That might just become my standard reply to every douchebag I run across in life. Thanks, OA.
*Every good call deserves a blog.
I think this guy and Jennifer are the same person. Their identical moronic writing style gives is not a coincidence.
hey tmamoyac, tell me how I make 765% in BAC calls and 500+% in BIDU calls and 1000%+ on TWTR calls based on what I’ve learned if he is a “pump and dump artist? How do you explain OA’s record trading megacap names like GOOG,AAPL,GS,ETC?
You can’t because you are entirely selective of the facts you consider relevent based on your opinions. There are always different fundamentals to evaluate.
This thread is hilarious!
oh man ,,,this thread is classic,,,Jeff classic
I haven’t laughed that hard in quite some time. That guy has got to be in the running for asshat of the year.
Missing your sessions in AH…. Thought i check in from the road. Cheers
On a serious note, I was nosing around ToS & noticed a “green shoot” (arrow) on the copper futures. http://oi57.tinypic.com/2n89amv.jpg
Stalking LULU. Is this considered a good 1-2-3 setup on the daily?
Playing set ups with options is gambling. That’s what I lost a lot of money on. My fundamental positions are what’s making me money. Enjoy ur gains now cuz it ain’t gonna last trading like this. Glad I didn’t buy ur service cuz ur a hack
I’m a subscriber since Jan 1. I am up 17% as of today’s close picking what I like from Jeff’s lists. That’s excluding the 10% loss I’ve taken on this pullback as I have picked new longs into this decline. Hack you say?
Look man, you’re obviously hurting. I feel for you. We’ve all been there. That said, you should probably join a stock club on Yahoo. It’ll make you feel like you’re part of something greater than yourself.
I assume you don’t mean me because I am not hurting at all. I was up 33% YTD on Monday and now 17% with Q1 drawing to a close in a couple weeks. I was 70% cash going into today before I put on new longs. Think I am doing just fine.
I was talking to the unpronounceable tool who keeps hijacking the comments. But congrats on your numbers, I guess.
Ah, sorry. Hard to tell at this point.
Gambling. Lol. Too bad you can’t sit at the big boys table, son.
tmamoyac – you didnt ask, but I’ll offer my advice anyway: you can probably engage others here in a meaningful way if you post more specific ideas such as “I’m considering shorting stock ABC with April puts at X strike…because I think ______.” That type of post will likely fare better than saying “the market” is dropping to this price or rising to this level. Those general market comments are fine, but what do you plan to do about it? Post some trades or investments as you make them or consider them and I think you’ll get more favorable interaction. OA and others post some of their trades which opens them up to criticism. If you post a trade in real time and its fruitful down the road, by all means post the positive results and people will be happy for you here…I’d offer this advice to anyone and not single you out. Best wishes.
Hattery – saw your OABot post but didnt get a chance to look at it in ahwoa before it was gone. Looking forward to see what it kicks out
Yoshi holding tsla shares short from 255 will sell under 190. Holding lvs shares short will sell after 30% decline in the stock. Holding etf tecs and Tza and will sell after 30% increase.
those are some grand targets but if you’re right in a reasonable amount of time you should be profiting big. I think it would take some earnings misses to get to some of those downside targets. we’ll see. trade your plan, and know your exits.
tmamoyac: I don’t really see your point of commenting and sharing your losses. Learn from it and move on. If this doesn’t cater to your taste, then by all means… MOVE ON!
Good Morning everyone. Have a great trading day. What did I miss since yesterday’s close??? Fun morning read. lol.
Good morning, grandpa….lol! Hope it’s a great day for you as well. Maybe we can all put our heads together and think up a gravatar for ‘somebody’… 😉
Was thinking of Cartman or Butters, and wound up finding a treasure for Mr. Boulders’ picture library: http://oi58.tinypic.com/2lmxxxy.jpg
Poor MrBoulders, tough job moving the family jewels around town.
Jumped into some April SPF and catching the knife on some BBRY calls this morning, seems like an easy spot to manage on BBRY at 9. Lowering time horizons and selling on pops.
Anyone doing anything today, or just waiting for armageddon? Looking at getting into TWTR calls here under $52.50.
Been waiting. NQ staying down all morning while the others ripped. That said market would come back in. Waiting.
ANGI- I know I’m a nobody here but I’m going long on ANGI here. Descending wedge and looks like selling exhaustion the last week. The uptrend is just starting.
We all have to start somewhere. I think its a good spot…easy to manage…stick to your exit plan should it break down…be a machine on the bottom exit and you’ll be fine.
Thanks yoshii11. Always a tight stop.
Thanks yoshi. Probably will take profits early on lvs @68 level. Also got into mcp this morning
Of course GME rebounds after I sell for a loss… Ugh such is life. Damn this tape is rough
SINA for me
GME gets a hard on but my portfolio still can’t get it up.
If GME can do this today, I am holding out for that pop over 39 before next Friday.
GME-If she goes thru 39.20, she might keep ripping! I was 17 cents from my stop on GME this a.m. TWTR got me though.
very small position, but nevertheless taking a BODY blow today. easily offset by GMCR/BV…I don’t want to take profits here, but it would seem like that’s the “safe” thing to do. Market has wreaked havoc on my mindset. I won’t sell it all, that’s for sure.
very nice call on GMCR
Thanks, I was feeling ill about it yesterday afternoon, and caught a gift with the news today about their SBUX agreement changing. I needed this for my psyche.
On a positive note, JASO blessed me w/ a pop, and I exited my March 10’s a little over +200%. I used to scoff at such figures, but it is what is…whew!
nice job buccs. i’m hoping $Z will provide me with such LARGE GAINS!
Did you put in a large buy order that sent Z up!LOL .Hope you didn’t have to smash any screens today!
no monitors will be smashed today. that sort of demolition is only reserved for days when i lose all my intrinsic value in all my options. that is definitely not now.
Thanks, Twinkies. I just peeled Z…looking good, man! There are some bright spots out here…
Stellar GME trade folks…reminder earnings the 27th, I think.
Just bought some ASM, I usually avoid the long stocks because I have an incredibly small starter portfolio I’m trying to grow but today this one was in my price range.
I’ll be whistling while this works.
where is the money flowing?
every god damn stock sells off on the slightest wood.
Anybody short the mkt better hope UK doesn’t fizzle out over the WE. $EWG and $RSX up over 1.5% today.Almost done with transition to April options so I can breathe better for monday. Twinks,what’s up with $Z today?
OA, rank these solars in order from best buys to worst:
CSIQ, YGE, TSL, JKS
TSL/YGE…………………………………………………………………..JKS
CSIQ
Although I don’t like that guy’s tone he is right about the current state of the market. The risk/reward favors the shorts. Also regarding only using technical analysis to trade is a zero sum game. Technical analysis paints only half of the picture, because in charting you can always see cases for both angles. If you combine t/a + fundamentals you’ll do better. You will get a more complete picture. Consider also this that t/a is always after the fact of fundamentals. Price actions are determined by buying and selling (Price action meaning market moving, institutions, not the little guys. Buying and selling occurs with their investment or trading idea. Those ideas are derived from fundamentals not technicals. Then those fundamentals are translated into technicals, and that is what you see on the charts. I was summoned here by someone because of this thread. Someone thought I’d find it entertaining. I find it funny on both sides.