Swift Kick to the Scrotal Region – Thanks Nat Gas
I”m bored as hell and my balls are fucking killing me from being busted by the foot of that burly beast of a woman behind me. In this case the pig is HNU. Natural Gas is getting it’s balls kicked in and I’m in for the ride.
On a side note, I don’t give a shit about this “Down Day”. I sold all my dogs last week and have very little exposure to the long side now relative to last week.
I’m in HNU on the TSX @ $4.95 in a decent sized position due to some overzealous buy orders. If it breaks ~$3 I’ll start to worry, I’m not so much worried now as in pain from the whale of a woman(HNU) busting my balls. On top of that all the news regarding Natural Gas is just plain horrible.
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I said kicked in the scrotum, not fucked in the ass. There is a distinct difference. Someone can be “Kicked in the balls” yet still maintain their manhood so to speak.
It’s my view (however unfortunate) that your balls will continue to be squished in a vice grip of pain. As an “energy consultant” for a variety of sectors throughout North America (chemical, steel, pharma, forest products, etc), I can say unequivocally that both gas and electricity demand are dead in the short-term. I’m looking for HNU to hit $2.50 and the prompt month on NYMEX to have a $2 handle within a couple weeks.
Ouch, any thoughts on the longer-term?
Barring any serious hurricanes, we could see record storage (near 4,000 Bcf) by the start of November – if that’s the case – we could see prices at Henry Hub significantly below $3 US/MMBtu and prices at AECO near $2 CDN/GJ entering the winter season (nov-mar). The industrial demand in the areas like that of Ontario, Michigan, Ohio, New York, etc, is simply atrocious. Furthermore, electricity demand has been significantly reduced in these regions and any serious natural gas generation simply has not developed this summer lending a reason as to why prices continue to be depressed with the rig count off so drastically. Those that think we’ve seen a low are kidding themselves. I’ll look to scale into HNU.TO well below $3.
RL – Thanks for your insights, I’ve read a few articles that lead to similar conclusion. Also that shale gas is competing to some extent.
Question for you: When do you believe HNU will print $5+ again, if ever?
Thanks,
Shale gas has turned the industry on its head. A little over a year ago North America was worried about long-term supply and had over 50 applications into the government for LNG facilties up and down the East coast and (putting all their eggs in one basket) down near Louisinna. Now, we’re talking about exporting nat gas. Consider the Mackenzie and Alaska pipelines as old news. It’s not even worth it now. $14 billion dollars? I think not. We’ll likely hit $5 mid winter once old man winter decides to demolish us with an unspeakable “flurry” of storms. (pun intended) Or perhaps when Accuweather decides to post its ridiculous winter forecasts calling for the coldest winter on record in over 100 years (ie 2 years ago) or some other crazy statement they make every year. Too bad they’ve been wrong more than they’ve been right. I’ll just wait for the weather to develop thank-you very much.
Thanks for additional insights. My reign as King of the PG is up end of the month, if you’d like to write something on Nat Gas, I’d like to publish it here before then.
If you’re interested, just reply here and I’ll email you from the email you left in your comments.
If not, thanks for filling us all in and here’s for a ridiculously hot rest of the summer, crazy hurricanes and the “coldest winter on record” ha.
Sounds like a plan!
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