________________________________________

It looks like Argentum Silver is leading the PM hordes forth again, most likely as a direct predecessor to another dollar break here.  Up over 2.5% as I type and outpacing it’s usually more lively cousin, Aurum Gold, which is up only one-tenth as much.

I think this is a good sign, even for you non-PM investors, as silver is the more sensitive to the “commodity” and “industrial” sectors, and it’s rise here should be good news for all of you commodity speculators, whether you be earl rustlers or coal bandits.  I will continue with my investments in refiners until they stop making sense, however, even with a rise in earl.  I continue to like WNR and PSX, for instance.  HFC as well.

For silver bugs, I went long(er) today by adding to my AGQ position, for the short term trip to the 200-day EMA, at close to $50 right now.  I will likely sell this additional piece off when we reach that mark, however, as I don’t like to be too heavily leveraged in this volatile metal.   At least, not for any length of time.

I also like EXK here, despite it’s continue pokiness compared to jackrabbit AG.  SSRI also seems to be re-gaining ground, if you are of the speculative sort.  As always, SIL and SLW are the formidable base of my silver horde, and I recommend those for any toe dippers.

Best to you.

__________________________

Comments »

________________

Maybe this is the week of the “Paul Ryan Feel Good,” or just the week when Joe Biden rolled himself in a child’s wading pool full of tar and scrap paper, and then set himself alight.

Maybe the world feels a little more optimistic these days than they did even three weeks back.  Maybe that’s just an optical (auditory?) illusion.  Whatever the reason, the dollar is finally starting to budge a little bit, and we may be sniffing a break of $82.00 within the next week or so.  As a result, the risk trade, especially in the precious metals, refineries and earl & gas plays has finally begun to become more appetizing here.

You know I love SLW, and it’s really looking strong again here.  After consolidating on the 200-week moving average for ten weeks (but not breaking below it, important!), SLW is now over it’s 13-week and 34-week moving average.    Above $30 right now at a close today of $31.65, you might want to set a buy stop right at that low $30-ish level.  It’s worth waiting a bit for here, as the last couple of days have been explosive.  Almost always, SLW will reward the patient hand.  Again, SIL is for you if you do not want to own individual silver stocks.

On the gold side, I don’t think you could do much better than RGLD.  Right now it’s forming the right side of a mini-cup, and I really think the next time it breaches $80.00, it will be home free — flying in virgin territory.  It’s absolutely astounding what this stock has done over the last 10 years.  In 2001, it was trading at less than $2.00.  They’ve only gotten stronger in their royalty finance commitments recently, and now appear to be stepping into the big leagues.  I also like AUY, as mentioned, and of course GDXJ.

Last but not least, I like the refiners.  I love my WNR, and still clutch it, but for my money, I think PSX warrants a lot of attention too. After it settles down from its most recent breakout on the weekly chart, I think it’s a purchase at the $39.00 level. Whether it’s the year of the monkey or the Age of Aquarius, for some reason refiners are hot again, and it’s time to take advantage.

I think this string will run at least to the end of the month, especially if the dollar continues to cooperate.  At that point, however, I’m going to start at least selling calls, if not whole swaths of stocks.   This POTUS race is going to tighten, and I don’t think that will be good for market breaking into mid-September.  Until then, however, let’s play that grasshopper music.

Best to you all.

_____________

Best.

Comments »

_____________________________________________

It’s not like I don’t get little enough sleep as it is… No, Fly’s gotta start chucking cherry bombs over at his place, talking all kinds of pina colada-induced nonsense about voting for the Emperor again, despite his concerted attack on the American economic system and his attempt to “transform” us into Denmark in the middle of a mild recession that is getting less and less milder as we speak.

All because he thinks Rick Perry — 11 year governor of Texas and one-time Southern Democrat — is going to abolish the Fed?  Can he be serious?  No, I don’t think he is, either.

No, I’m blaming it on second-degree sunburn, and leaving off.  I don’t believe the Fly really wants to turn us into Europe… not with what’s going on over there right now, as their underfunded demographically-imploding welfare states dissolve into a puddle of ill-trained and ungrateful flash-mobs.   And really, what can you expect from a country whose National Health Service had 239 patients die from malnutrition last year?

Yes, you read that right… click on the article to read more about the glories of social democracy and state-based healthcare provision.   Obamacare, anyone?

It’s okay.  You made a mistake.  It hurts, and it’s embarrassing.  Hell, you’ve got to ditch all that blue and red block-printed poster-board and tee shirtage.  But don’t fret… there’s good news.

You’ll have a chance to right that wrong in 2012.  It’s not going to be the “perfect candidate.”  It never is.  Sometimes you have to choose the good over the perfect, and sometimes even the lesser of two evils.

In this case, the choice won’t be that difficult.  You’ve got a chance to undo some pretty significant damage.  I know you’ll do the right thing in the end.

_______________________

I remain stolid in my recent positions.  My hedges, such as they are, harden into calcified barnacles, neither sentient nor proud.  Their growth is de minimus, moving like the tides, if at all.

I’m not wholly convinced that the PM’s are quite dead or ready to roll over, so I guess I will wait for a sound.  In the meantime, I continue to winnow positions in other areas, moving to an almost wholly “cash and PM” portfolio, save for my ETF positions and the BWA, WNR and UPS I still own.

OpEx is a tough week.  Let us watch and wait for it to resolve itself. AUY continues to look fantastic, btw.

_____________

Comments »

__________________________________

Young Daniel-san has been nagging me lately about the other lustrous beauty, Platinum —

I interrupt this blog post to tell a funny story about an even younger Daniel — my son.  Tonight we were alone together, as the Good Woman took the other kids to see “Star Trek” (she for the second time) and I stayed home with “the baby.”  Problem is, he’s not so much a baby any more and quite prone to mischief.   Case in point, he had been locking himself in his room lately, so — clever us — we turned his doorknob around about six months back.  Skip to tonight, whilst I’m preparing him beddy-bye, he’s mucking about with the door again.   Too late — I heard the “click” — did I realize he’d turned the lock and pulled the door shut, effectively locking us in his room until Star Trek was out.  Bugger.

Anyway, ever since Danny bugged me about Platinum, I’ve been watching [[PTM]] — the most liquid ETF of the metal I could find.  Tonight I’ve taken the decision to grab some given a break from it’s current position.  Given a trial period, I may even consider it for the JCHP.   I believe the following limpid, elucidating, facile and explanatory CHART will show my reasoning (rather than have you guess as to what the hell goes through my head on taking decisions like these, along the lines of certain obstreperous , cranky “Uncle Fuckers” with whom we may be familiar):

Overbought?  Most assuredly.  That’s why I’ll wait to see if it clears this critical $15.40 mark before I dip my beak.   I think PTM should likely match the other precious metals, and continue to hold value, like it’s other “precious industrial” twin, Silver.   We shall see.

Meanwhile, ho hum, the Jacksonians were mostly green-hued again today, all save the two I’ve hedged with sold calls (TBT & TSO).  Odd, no?   It looks like TSO may take something of a hit here tomorrow, thanks to the foolishness of VLO and WNR,  it’s villainous brothers.   I’m not overly concerned, as I sold the June $17.50’s at close to $2.00 some  weeks back.   That said, I’d like to see TSO hold the $16.70, area, as that is the bottom range of it’s current ascending triangle.  

The $HUI continues to consolidate under $400, even as the Jacksonians move forward.  There should be some room for additional accumulation this week, I hope.

Name		2-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE		$     26.84	3.23%		Another 3%+ day, Ags still strong
EGO		10.13	4.54%		So much for accumulation.  Hope you got some.
GDX		44.55	2.63%		$HUI under $400, yet GDX still up.
GLD		96.36	0.66%		Gold (the commodity) only $14 away from $1k
IAG		11.20	1.63%		Friday’s gap gets further away.
MON		82.70	1.50%		Moving back in the right direction for MONGO
NRP		24.30	0.25%		Back at the top of the consolidation range
PAAS		23.86	2.01%		Chug chug chug chug
RGLD		47.76	3.51%		Just the best thing you can own
SLV		15.75	2.61%		POS over $16 tonight, should follow
SLW		10.87	3.62%		Overbought, but silver rocketing
SSRI		24.67	1.52%		Ditto
TBT		55.00	-0.94%		Pullback from yesterday’s gapup
TC		10.39	4.00%		Considering selling the calls on this huge move
TSO		17.50	-0.06%		Will have to fight the VLO news tomorrow
		AVG	2.05%

_____________________________________________________________________________

Comments »