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There’s something symmetric about this year’s number “2012” isn’t there?  February 2nd, 12th, 20th and 22nd and December 2nd, 12th, 20th, and 22nd are going to be kind of cool for numbers geeks looking for auspicious dates upon which to get married or receive ass tattoos, perhaps.   Maybe the Mayans will come through with a nice atmosphere sucking asteroid strike on one of those days as well?   That would be special, no?

Anyway, without much further ado, I will set forth some of my predictions for the next 365 days, should we get all of them…

• The Giants will luck their way into the playoffs thanks to the incompetence of the 2011 NFC East, and because God wants to punish the Ryan Brothers.  They will lose in the first round to the far more deserving Atlanta Flackons (sic).
• Jerry Jones will publicly admonish, but keep his Ginger Head Coach, Jason Garrett.
• Rick Santorum will come in second to Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucuses, and then gain enough momentum to place a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire.
• Santorum wins in a tight race in South Carolina, prompting Romney to offer him the Veep slot two months prior to the convention in order to lock down the wary evangelical vote.
• Tim Pawlenty’s head explodes simultaneous with Pat Robertson’s.  Pawlenty for “woulda shoulda coulda”  because he dropped out too early,  and Robertson upon realizing the GOP is running a Mormon-Catholic ticket.
• The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis (Colts) take Andrew Luck with the first round pick and keep Peyton Manning… for now.
• The U.S. dollar peaks at $81.50 on the DX-Y Index, and proceeds to break down below the April ’08 lows (sub- $72.00) by September.
• Gold breaks $2,000.00 by April, followed by Silver breaking its old highs in May.
• With the drop in the dollar, and the prospect of the end of the Obama Error, the market goes dipschit, peaking at 14,000 in the Dow and 1700 on the S&P before everyone realizes we’re running on fumes, and we sell off after the 2012 elections.
• The 2012 Presidential Election if one of the nastiest on record.  Obama drops his class warfare rhetoric as a losing strategy and takes on the First Victim status.  David Axelrod wheels out mystery women on Mitt Romney and the Veep candidate (presumably, Santorum).
• Sarah Palin is a lighting rod, playing the black hat for the GOP, pointing out every government takeover and socialist move passed over the last five years (including the last two years of the Bush Administration).  Obamacare will become a millstone on the President’s neck as more unintended consequences arise, and the forced coverage purchase laws are declared un-Constitutional.
• The Euro stays a viable currency, but Greece, Spain and Portugal drop out of the union.   Italy’s and Ireland’s banking system are saved by British and German investors and stays in the European Union with new manacles.
• President Obama becomes increasingly disassociated with his re-election and by the time he loses to Romney in November, he will have convinced himself — and his true believers — that he will be a more effective member of the Democrat party out of office.

• Romney’s acceptance speech will be affable and conciliatory, hoping to mend the divisiveness of the past six years.  Neither the Tea Party nor the Hard Left will be very happy about the results
• Besides UPS, my best picks of the year will be COP, MON, AG, RGLD, DE and PBR.

And now, the kickoff!   Happy New Year and Geauuuuux Giants!

 

 

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gm9q8uabTs 450 300]

Europe is not lost if there are guys like this still fighting the Euro Movement

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No, not that kind of “hope,” — not the kind that comes with all kinds of government takeovers of your private person and property. Not the kind we’ve been enduring for three plus years, and two before that in the joint houses of Congress. Is there anyone out there who still supports further meddling with businesses, with your healthcare, with your very livelihood? Is there anyone out there who still thinks they’re being helped by your friendly friend from D.C.?

Even you poor people? Are things looking up?

Minorities? Has your lot improved? Environmentalists? Peaceniks? Feeling better about things?

How about you, union guys? Is it a brave new world out there? How are dues coming? Membership?

Farmers? Miners? Small manufacturers? Hey — even you, the guy who had the great idea about converting biomass into usable fuel. I’m sorry, what’s that? Your project was beaten out by a stampede of better-lobbied inferior competition?

And you, the Wall Street smart guys, with your Ivy League degrees, and your Alden loafers, I turn to you last, as I know you best.

Look around you. Where’s that guy you used to play squash with? What happened to the Asset Backed Debt department this year? How come you have to make do with one shared pool secretary instead of Helda working on your shit alone?  Glad you wrote that check four years ago to the good looking guy with the nice smile and the airy aphorisms that really didn’t have much of a point?  Was that little bit of feel good– that cocktail party affirmation– was it worth it?

Has it been worth it, people?

I think I know the answer, but I don’t want this to be about “I told you so.” I would rather turn it into an educational opportunity, if I might. I believe that if most intelligent people read Thomas Sowell’s Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy, they would think very seriously about not only how this country works in very easy to grasp economic terms, but how it has grown to become the most free and strongest on earth. I highly recommend this tome (or the 4th edition, out recently) even for those of you who have no interest whatsoever in math or economics.  Professor Sowell breaks it down in very easily understood terminology.  You won’t be disappointed.

And after finishing that “good meal,” I don’t think they’d fall for the next guy with the cute smile and demagogic one-liners.  That’s just my take.

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Nothing has changed in my recent investment approach.  I continue to be long silver and gold names that I’ve detailed here already.  I continue to hold because of quotidian reasons like “seasonality” and the tendency of Santa Bernank to want everyone to have a holly jolly Christmas, as I’m sure you will agree.

On EXK! On RGLD! On SLW and AG!

Come GDX! Come EGO! Come AVL and IVN! Dash away! Dash away! Dash Away All!

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The Giants let another one slip between their fingers, to the hated Cheeseheads, no less, despite giving them quite the scare for perhaps the first time this season.   Moral victories, however, count for scheissola in this part of the season.  

That said, at least the Crackboys also lost — inexplicably — to the Arizona Cardinals, who I believe are working with a tenth string QB out of Mail-it-In State.    We play them next week and then again two weeks after that and if we can’t beat those sad sacks, well — it’s time for head coach Tom Coughlin and his trusty offensive coordinator Captain Kangaroo Gilbride, to pack their bags and just GO.

But I don’t want to hear a damn word from any of ye’s (sic) about the Giants’ recent four game collapse.  I especially don’t want to hear about how great the Pack, or that long haired narcissist Clay Matthews are.   What the hell is wrong with this guy anyway?  He’s like a woman with that shit.  Why is it so damn greasy the whole game?  Does he throw a bunch of conditioner in there so it’s nice and greezy (sic), so no one can grab him by it? 

Just get a haircut, Laughing Boy.

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Right now the dollar is struggling to re-assert itself despite it’s being leveraged against every shit currency in the free world.  Despite all that, currency traders are wising up and beginning to bid the “savings plays” up again, chief among them the yen.    So, even as the dipshits at  S&P do the Fed’s bidding by trying to scare the German’s pants brown, the dollar still struggles to even achieve today’s earlier highs. 

Curious, no?

You won’t see me running about, flibberty-gibbet style, sorry.  I just don’t have the time for it.   I’ll stay in the gold and silver plays I limned for you last week, thanks very much.  I still own some GSVC as well, btw, and even some WNR (the calls I wrote against them twice have all expired, too).  

I really hate to say “I’m with Teahouse,” but at least it’s not like I’m sitting on the fans’ side at Foxboro or going door to door for Ketchup Usurper John Kerry, right?

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVN_0qvuhhw 450 300]

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It seems that the Olympian Fowl of Late November have been a bit tardy this year.   Gauging the current mood of the financial blogosphere, however, one would think the Mohawks had rescinded the Thanksgiving truce and were busy rendering bad punk haircuts to the entire Southern District of New York.

Ridiculous.   So you had a bad “Black Friday Shopping Experience?”  You didn’t get that $199 42″ plasma from Best Buy despite leaving 4 grandmothers denture-less thanks to your “flying elbows of  mercantile death?”  That’s a damn shame.   You should bring a hockey stick next time if you want to prove you are a playah.   That’s no reason to go all knee-knocked on the market because of a bad Turkey Week. I urge you not to become Ursine Prejudiced.  It’s the worst kind of poison for the mind.

You see, sometimes the Turkey Gods are leisurely in their ambling down from the stratosphere to bless you with the grapes of coin.  This is why it pays to have patience and to step into an oversold cycle in a graduated fashion.   Last week I saw the PM’s starting to show signs of a rally even as the dollar stayed strong, but I knew that rally would not fully materialize until the dollar was finally ready to retreat.  So I played halfway, and stayed out of the high octane stuff (save for a starter in AGQ) to start.

By my calculations, that dollar retreat should have started Wednesday or even Friday of last week, and therefore, by those lights, the dollar is living on borrowed time.   I think we will see a top perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning as the dollar tries to rally to the September highs.   From a stochastic and RSI standpoint, that rally looks ready to stall.  Note the overbought conditions in the following daily index chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we can take advantage of this pullback and I plan to put on some leveraged plays — including NUGT and AGQ — if the dollar begins to break down significantly this week.   I’m not sure I will have those plays on for very long, but I think we can take some short term advantage of the return to the mean this oversold cycle presents.   As usual I would look to the liquid plays — GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW and RGLD.   If you insist on playing the micros and the juniors, please play small… and swiftly.

Best to you all, in your tryptophan heavens.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfhkuXuQ9eA 450 300]

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What are you doing moping about as if the moon has hit your eye like a big pizza pie?  That’s only ammonia (anhydrous), and don’t take big breaths if it’s making your eyes water.

Italian bonds made everyone in the market sad, and yet I chalked up another win in my real life.  This is getting kind of ridiculous and I’m beginning to see visions of fat smiling men wearing fezzes and carrying sharp harem scimitars from lack of sleep.   I could have the best year of my life and my wife could be spending it (and the insurance proceeds) with her new boyfriend on the Riviera this time next year.

And during all that chaos today the market was melting down.  At first my golds and even silvers hung tough, but then even they succumbed to the great vortex that if forming over the gladiator cages of the Coliseum in Rome.  Sylvio Berlusconi was the first round heeled slick bastard to get sucked into that vortex, but for all I know there’ll be prominent members of the Vatican entering it next, only to find themselves ended up in some alternate universe heaven or maybe an independent book store in Dubuque.

Tonight I thought the Herminator acquitted himself well, getting off a couple of good zingers on the Dem party faithful like Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Nancy “Princess” Pelosi.  Rick Perry’s Gaffemasters Speaking Tour continues to everyone’s great chagrin.  Mittster continues to disappoint with his pandering bullshit about a tax cut “for the middle class.”  WTF does that even mean, Mitt?  What is “the middle class” and aren’t “targeted tax cuts” an instrument of Democrat policy?  Get with the program or you’ll never get the nomination.

Newt Gingrich was clever, but looked like some kind of giant marionette up there on stage.  Could’ve been the lighting.   Rick Santorum looked like hell and geez!  Whine much?  Huntsman was equally unimpressive although he did try to make some good points on tax policy that were “acceptable.”   Michele Bachmann… I hate to be sexist but she’s pretty damn cute, and just as Stepford-ish as you can hope for.  Policy wise?  Meh.

I was busy today and did nothing at the site but watch the Monsieur buy some RGLD.  I looked at some SLW at the end of the day as well but got called into a meeting before I could do anything.  I do like that it’s coming down on it’s 200 day EMA.   I think it will bounce there, at $34.70, and that’s where I may be adding.

Besides those two, NGD and AUY held pretty strong relative to their peers.  Look to them tomorrow for a first bounce.

Hang in there, we are oversold like few times I’ve seen, and I think we rebound tomorrow, but maybe not until late morning.

Best to you all.

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Things just keep getting more and more peachy around here.   On Friday, as I revealed yesterday, I threw caution to the wind and grabbed a whole lot of miner and double ETF picks that I had a feeling would make a strong move this week.  Today I was rewarded for that Erroll Flynn-ish type of move not only by a strong move in the precious metal sector, but also a bonus Eagle loss to a team they should never lose to if they believe themselves contenders this year (sorry Bears fans).

Especially not at home.

That puts my Giants three games ahead of the “Dream Team” Beagles, albeit with three tough games still ahead of them (and one in the rear view mirror in Gilette Stadium -heh!).  There’s more than serendipity at work here, methinks…

Could it be the Turkey Gods are blessing us all in advance?  It’s quite possible, especially when you look at the evidence available in the $HUI — an index which up to now has been quite vexatious to those of us who trade “the original coin.”

But look what the weekly is telling us now… not only are we breaking out over old levels, but it looks like this time we’ve ample time left in the run.  Check out these stochastics on the $HUI weekly —

 

That’s right, we’re near the famed “$610 Maginot Line,” again, and with adequate momentum to take those levels out with aplomb.  And we all know that breakouts beget breakouts, don’t we?

So grab your favorite gold miner or royalty financier (RGLD!) or even multi-varied ETF (GDX, SIL, GDXJ), because I think there’s more fun to come.

I may even grab some NUGT tomorrow if I can squeeze some time out of my fire extinguishing duties.

No rest for the weary Gentlemen (and Ladies).   I will see you all around the coyne shoppes.

Best to you all.

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