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Bizarro-Close

My friend Mr. Russell was reconstituting today, just as my enemy Mrs. Pelosi was trying to reconstitute our country’s energy markets.  So you can imagine it was a bit harum scarum.

I will come back later, and blog like the wind in the willows (maybe I’ll have illustrative capabilities back by then), but now it’s off to a super important pool party replete with screaming brats.  Ah, parenthood.

Later.

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Back, and I’ve looked at the JCHP for today, and save for the bizarro behaviour of usually reliable Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , it looked like a general consolidation day for the PM’s, which is natural given the large moves a number of them made yesterday.  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] continues to look good here, as do a the juniors I’d mentioned earlier in the day (see last post).

I will try to find out wtf is going on with RGLD this weekend. 

The other good news is that the non precious metals — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , as well as ag supplier The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] all look like they are uncoiling out of their bullish flags again.  Keep a close eye for volume increases.

Last, be sure to keep an eye on the biotech pinless hand grenades I’ve tossed around over the last couple of weeks.   A number of them did the astral elevator today, I think because of Russell Reconstitution Day.   They included [[HEB]] , [[CTIC]] and ImmunoGen, Inc. [[IMGN]] .

Lastly, Fly’s chip box chomper of the future, [[ENTR]] had a nice gain today, but more important, it rose on huge (almost 16x average) volume.  I did not see their name in the Russell rebalances, so this volume remains a mystery.  Something to look for on Monday, however, as significant volume is usually… well… significant!

The Jackson’s on Friday:

Name/     %    
Ticker 25-Jun 26-Jun Change   Comments
ANDE  $        29.95  $      30.23 0.93%   Moving nicely out of the bull flag
EGO              9.39            9.40 0.11%   Consolidation day for gold
GDX            39.99          39.20 -1.98%   Ditto
GLD            92.31          92.29 -0.02%   POG broke briefly over $940, then back.
IAG            10.58          10.48 -0.95%   Consolidation day for gold
MON            75.66          75.25 -0.54%   Ditto
NRP            20.83          20.82 -0.05%   Flat again, forming bear flag?
PAAS            19.34          19.08 -1.34%   Held up at the 200 day EMA
RGLD            46.00          42.07 -8.54%   Freakish late day drop.   Be prepared to cut 
SLV            13.81          13.90 0.65%   Up with the POS
SLW              8.81            8.72 -1.02%   Held up at the 50 day EMA
SSRI            19.65          19.52 -0.66%   Held up at the 50 day EMA
TBT            51.03          50.84 -0.37%   Near flat today, could be done w. pull back
TC            10.31          10.44 1.26%   Like ANDE moving out of flag
TCK            15.99          16.56 3.56%   Same, looking very strong here
TZA            22.74          22.50 -1.06%   Flattish for a triple.
AVG (daily)     -0.63%    
AVG (monthly)   -6.44%    
AVG (inception)   15.49%    

 Update: The Ozzie’s get it right.   Or at least their Senate does.  Let’s hope our own Senate can be as astute when this criminal theft Al Gore bill comes before them.   Hold your reps accountable on this one, people.

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3 O’Clock Rock

The market is meandering all day, so I’ve been out eating samitches (sic) and picking mushrooms.    Looks like our precious metal pullback is continuing as expected.    I hope you are taking your time, but picking up some of the Jacksons you have perhaps neglected in weeks passed. 

[[SLW]] in particular looks tasty here, having filled that gap and then some at $10.04.  It’s now proceeding to fill the gap it created this morning at $10.29.   Someday, you will revel in these prices.

From the picks I went over on the weekend, you’ve had opportunities to buy all of them cheaper than Friday’s close, but most have gained back a lot of what they lost this morning (recognizing that [[ARTC]] hadn’t lost anything).    [[TIE]] continues to look like it wants more here, as does Fly’s favorite [[TRID]].

I really hope you took care of the “Devil Dawg Special” in [[SPAR]] this morning, as that perfect contra-indicator gave it his very special “Great Short” blessing, ensuring that it will continue making your grandchildren millions even when you are moldering in your platinum encrusted marble and jade pineapple coffin.

Seriously, it’s not often one gets blessed with a “reverse Devil Dawg.”  Don’t let this opportunity pass you by unattended.

Disclosure:  I bot 1000 shs [[SPAR]] @ $10.07.   Don’t cry to me, you could have gotten it in the nines! 

Targets for some PM’s?  — I’d love to get more [[AGQ]] @ $47.70

More [[EXK]] @ $1.75

More [[NG]] @ 4.75m

More [[GG]] @ $34.35

More [[SSRI]] @ $20.50 (back up the freaking truck)

More [[RGLD]] @ $43.10 (see above)

More to come later, but CAVEAT:  if you join my purchases at the above prices, above shown Devil Dawg will come to your house and give you all of his kibbles and bits.   And you may lose money.

Best to you all.

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Update: I forgot to add that biotech jumping bean fizzing hand grenade [[HEB]] is looking like it might be on the comeback trail again, ovah heah.  Proceed with extreme caution.

Update: Bot 2,000 TIE @ $10.75.

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The Miners Take a Rest

(Thanks to ‘Shed for the family photo)

As expected,  the miners have begun to consolidate a bit of last week’s (and last month’s) run up.    Nothing major mind you,  but the $HUI tells the tale here.  Remember this weekly chart from the 22nd of May?

hui_weeklyii

A little more than a week later, the $HUI is behaving as indicated.   Remember that red line — the “likely target for a short rest?”    Here’s today’s same chart: 

hui_dailyiii

This wholly expected retrace may bring us as far back as the top of our “consolidation box” ($375-ish).  But if the dollar and the 10-year continue to exhibit problems, I shouldn’t expect this rest to last much longer than that.    I will be using this time to aggregate some names like [[GG]] and [[AUY]] that I’ve been looking to add.   Those of you who have been waiting for a Jacksonian entry may want to consider this week’s opportunity as well.    

One other thing, I’ve been thinking about water as an appreciating commodity recently, and many of the water-related stocks have begun setting up nicely.  I may take a shot at grabbing some of the desalinator [[CWCO]] tomorrow if the stars are properly aligned.   

Note the new “comments” section on the JCHP performance chart.    Innovative, no?  

Best to you all.

Name   1-Jun % Change   Comments      
ANDE    $       26.00 3.59%   Moving with the Ags      
EGO               9.69 -2.32%   Accumulation opp. Here    
GDX             43.41 -1.70%   $HUI pullback      
GLD             95.73 -0.49%   Resting for the leap to one grand?    
IAG             11.02 -2.22%   Friday’s gap @ $10.92      
MON             81.48 -0.82%   Yet to fill gap @ $85.06, Barron’s mention  
NRP             24.24 2.45%   Low volume up day, KOL up big    
PAAS             23.39 -0.13%   Still very much in uptrend channel    
RGLD             46.14 -0.92%   Half volume day, pullback    
SLV             15.35 -0.78%   Friday’s gap @ $15.06      
SLW             10.49 -0.29%   Friday’s gap @ $9.99, will it get there?  
SSRI             24.30 1.72%   “Indefatiguable”, Friday gap @ $23.26  
TBT             55.52 5.47%   Gapped up, strong volume day    
TC               9.99 4.06%   Gapped up today, didn’t fill.    
TSO             17.51 3.36%   Hugging the top of the triangle, must break $17.80
     AVG  0.73%            

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Hangin’ with the Carnies

There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights,  over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT  .   Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.

That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.    I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.  

First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar.   He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not.    Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?

uup

Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again).   And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.  

Why?   Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates.   If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt.   But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper.   Remember back when we first advocated  TBT as a Jacksonian pick?  Here was the chart:

tbt-daily

We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades.   However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play.   Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:

tbt-daily-ii

Bang!  All the way above the 200-day EMA.   Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback.  Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.  

Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates.   That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP

Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD.   I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future.   The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.

UPDATE:  I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today.   I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.

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    26-May % Change
ANDE    $   24.95 6.90%
GDX   41.84 -0.50%
GLD   93.76 -0.73%
IAG   10.56 -2.76%
MON   85.25 -1.57%
NRP   22.75 2.43%
PAAS   21.64 1.03%
RGLD   45.38 2.53%
SLV   14.42 -0.55%
SLW   9.49 1.61%
SSRI   20.82 -4.19%
TBT   55.07 2.80%
TC   8.73 1.04%
TSO   16.73 3.08%
Avg %     0.85%

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In the Presence of Tree Goats

Not to be disparaging, but I’ve felt I’ve spent the week with a squadron of flying goats.   There you are flitting from tree to tree looking for the best green shoots, ears up and horns out,  “baaaaahhhing” it up to beat the band.   

Chips stocks!  Cancer stocks!  Lenny Dykstra Car Wash franchise stocks!  Get ’em while they’re hot from the chute!

But why must you make your lives so difficult?  There’s no reason to search for rare buds in the top branches of the acacia tree when there’s plenty of bull grass right here on the ground.   Come down from there and take a look at the freshly scythed alfalfa I have gathered for you, my yellow-eyed friends

Remember our weekly $HUI chart from last week?

hui_weekly1

Well, look what’s happened this week…. Pop!

hui_weeklyii

Can anything be more promising than that little green bud out of the consolidation zone?    And yes, we’re a little overbought here, and should be coming into some more resistance around 400 or so, but we should welcome that opportunity.  

After all my boy, it is a bull market — and maybe the only one you’ll see for years to come.  So relax some, take a load off, and get your nets ready.   It’s almost harvest time again.

This week’s Jackson Core Holdings Portfolio results were very pleasing, especially as measured against the indexes.   So have some nice goat cheese this weekend, and maybe try to pause a second whilst hoisting that relaxing beverage to remember those who have served, and especially those who have fallen in order that you could enjoy this great country.    Be well.

Name 5/8/2009 5/15/2009 5/22/2009
ANDE  $    21.50  $      21.31 -0.88%  $    23.34 9.53%
GDX        37.46          37.65 0.51%        42.05 11.69%
GLD        89.98          91.55 1.74%        94.45 3.17%
IAG          9.92            9.83 -0.91%        10.86 10.48%
MON        86.42          89.95 4.08%        86.61 -3.71%
NRP        23.39          21.29 -8.98%        22.21 4.32%
PAAS        19.35          18.66 -3.57%        21.42 14.79%
RGLD        39.90          39.97 0.18%        44.26 10.73%
SLV        13.79          13.77 -0.15%        14.50 5.30%
SLW          8.91            8.58 -3.70%          9.34 8.86%
SSRI        20.06          19.06 -4.99%        21.73 14.01%
TBT        52.24          49.13 -5.95%        53.57 9.04%
TC          7.98            7.65 -4.14%          8.64 12.94%
TSO        16.72          16.60 -0.72%        16.23 -2.23%
    AVG -1.96%   7.78%
   
Name 5/8/2009 5/15/2009 5/22/2009
SPY  $    92.98  $      88.71 -4.59%  $    89.02 0.35%
QQQQ        34.23          33.37 -2.51%        33.54 0.51%
DIA        85.47          82.78 -3.15%        82.87 0.11%
NDX   1,394.16     1,355.11 -2.80%   1,363.17 0.59%
RUT      511.82        475.84 -7.03%      477.62 0.37%
    AVG -4.02%   0.39%

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Smite Me With Thine Silver Sceptre, Oh Lawd

One of these days I’ll shut the hell up about moving you into real money assets as quickly as your penny stock-spindling portfolio will allow.

But that day is not this day.   Not when the latest news clacking over the Jesse Livermore-era news ticker  in my offices reveals how Kommandant Barack is now going to nationalize GM — but “only temporarily.”   Turns out Dear Leader wants just enough time for Rahm Emmanual and Lanny Davis to wheel that aging aerophin-appended Caddy into his airplane hangar chop shop so to whack it up for distribution to loyal U.A.W. gummint cheese recipients.  

Tanks you veddy much, Kommandant, and dont’ forget to save the steering wheel, the white wall tires and the chrome ashtrays for the bond holders!    I said leave those white wall tires, you! 

So if the good fellahs in charge of everything  — and damn, they really seem like they are in charge of everything these days, don’t they? — are that cavalier about the big buck bondholders (some of whom were stupid enough to give them campaign money just months ago) , doesn’t that make you just a wee bit nervous about how well they are going to treat that other little U.S. bond obligation: The Federal Reserve Note?

So have fun, and be a silly piebald carnival piker if you’re so compelled.   By all means, stuff yourself into the clown car with all the other PPT nutjobs .  Throw some funny money at chip stocks that have been moribund since Bill Gates was still a virgin, if you feel that exercise will further your spiritual growth.   Go nuts. 

Hell, you’ll probably find me in that same Yugo  from time to time, playing Parcheesi with Ragin Cajun  whilst simultaneously sword fighting  The Chart Addict.    I’m human, after all, and enjoy an OTB rocket ride for greasy coin and bed bugged comfort as much as the next guy. 

Just don’t get too homey in that clown car, Homey.  Five will get you ten it will soon be remandered by the EPA for egregious CAFE standard violations, environmentally malevolant tailpipe emanations,  and toxic silly string abuse.    Then it’ll be medical experiments for the lot of us.

Well, not those who have been prudent about tendering some savings to the Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio, whose hard money and hard asset plays will serve to keep some of us cosy with hot buttered rums and chedder toasties , whilst the OTB pikers scrape at our doors.  No luck for them I’m afraid.   They shall be turned out with a stern warning from Cuddy, our trusty footman.

But Cuddy welcomes the purchase of silver this day, as the Three Musketeers SSRI,  PAAS and  SLW scored again, with wins of 7.64%, 5.39% and 3.75%, respectively.   Do you get the feeling the market is trying to tell you something, Jacksonians?  

Beating even silver today was coveted (but not precious) metal molybdenum, as  JCHP member TC rang the bell with gains of 9.36% today.   All in all, the Portfolio only had two slight losses, and both in the red hot agricultural sector.  I expect MON (-0.69) and ANDE’s (-1.09)  small losses to be more like rests than ultimate pullbacks.   Still, this is why we’ve diversified even within this stable grouping, up 2.85% for the day.   Now quickly, onto our daily review:

ANDE — $22.62  (-1.09%)

GDX — $38.43 (+2.51%)

GLD — $90.96 (+0.66)

IAG – $9.88 (+1.23%) 

MON — $89.60 (-0.69)
 
NRP — $22.60 (+1.80%)

PAAS — $19.74 (+5.39%)

RGLD – $40.66 (+2.16%)

SLV — $13.98  (+2.95%)

SLW — $9.13  (+3.75%)

SSRI — $20.86  (+7.64%)

TBT — $51.04 (+1.07%)

TC — $9.00 (+9.36%)

TSO — $17.22 (+3.11%)

Daily Average:  +2.85 %

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