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NOTE: This was a Thursday morning post, although still relevant.  Apologies for the rasslin’ w. both location and WordPress problems…

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Silver is in a runaway move here.  There, I’ve said it. It could end within ten minutes of trading today, or it could end in two to six weeks from now.  I really believed we’d get a sharp pullback from our most recent moves, and perhaps we still will, but there’s no denying we’re in major breakout territory here.

I have no advice to give, save that you do not get reckless and leverage yourself into ruin.   I have been cutting back here, and adding to my gold names in hopes of a catchup.   This late in the day, however, is not the time to start getting careless.

Here’s the thing… this will end and likely soon, but it will not be The End, if you know what I’m saying.  In other words, there will be other opportunities to play this bull.  Make sure you have the capital to do so.

Right now, I’d be looking at underserved names… Ironically, SLW is one of them, as it had a hard pullback yesterday, if only to it’s 50-day EMA (and 13-week EMA as well).   I may grab back some of the exposure I sold there over the last couple of weeks.   I will know by 10 am what direction I will take.

I also continue to like AAU and a number of other small names which should be popping today.  Check also AUMN on the gold side, as well as IVN and BAA — two other late bloomers.  

Best to you all.   Oh… and Happy Maundy Thursday and Passover.  Think about going to church/shul this year.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo48YpNOesQ&feature=related 450 300] _______________________________

Ugh.  I cannot bloody believe it.  I just had a perfectly wrought lengthy post with graphics and witticisms galore… I pressed “Publish” and “voila!” I got the screen of zero tranquility.   Apparently my entire post was wiped save for the foolish youtube video I’d downloaded earlier and “saved” to make sure it was showing up.

These are the petty frustrations of the financial blogger my friends and they are enough to drive one mad with righteous anger.   So forget about the witticisms and the re-boot of my day of travel.  Just know that I believe silver is becoming dangerously overvalued here at 52% over its 200-day EMA, while gold stays strong but humble at only 11.4% over it’s same metric.

I didn’t sell anything more today because I was either driving or talking or talking and driving the entire trading session.  Had I seen these things, I would’ve dumped more silver miners.   I’ll probably do that tomorrow.   In the meantime, two friends have shown progress.   The first we spoke about mere days ago.  

Look what XG has done since:

The second is our beloved Grandmama… asleep these many months, but waking now to a new day.  Just as I predicted AGQ would rise to $300 this year, so too did I prophesy that RGLD would reach $100.   I think today was a significant step toward that goal.   Grab it on the retrace:

Note, this is a weekly chart and that’s one big grandmother of a consolidation…

I also like RBY here… stay well, my friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCQ0vDAbF7s 450 300]

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Rock your socks off like a blazing set of gold & silver monkeys!

ANV?

AAU?

AGQ?

AG?

Folks, that’s just the “A’s.”

Heck, that’s just some of the A’s!

LOL.  Hang on, and keep your hands inside the compartment at all times.  These are historic times, and I’m glad you’re along for the ride.

Watch as long suffering junior golds like RBY, EGO, IAG and yes, even NGD, roar forward here.

Back on the road again tomorrow, but I’ll try to check in tomorrow evening.

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It’s not been a bad ride for ANV since we last talked about it, has it?  Well, all good things must come to an end… or at least a temporary pause, no?

And I expect that’s what we’ll be coming up on in ANV as early as tomorrow.  I won’t be selling any of my Smaug-horde, but I may very likely sell the calls in the high $21 dollar range.   If you got on board when I alerted you to the 200-day touch you’re up over 35% right now, and I should think that’s not a bad ride for less than a month.

You can see we’re approaching some pretty serious oversold levels here in this recent chart:

I will likely do the same for SLW, EGO and IAG as well, and I will reduce my AGQ levels too.   Some of my smaller positions, like FRG (also a huge winner today) and RBY may get trimmed as well, but most I will just leave to gestate further in the womb of this great gold bull, which I think will resume soon after this pull-back.

BAA — the chronic underperformer, comes to mind as a something about which Mother Mary whispered right in front of me, “Let it Be, son, Let it Be.”

Or maybe that was the Raven quothing “Nevermoooooaah!” 

Whatever.  If you really have the hankerin’ to buy something tomorrow, why not try that perennial Fly favourite and crusher of all things Broadcom — ENTR?   Note, you may recall (and certainly the fine gentlemen and ladies of The PPT know this) that I added to my pile on this the other day at the retest of the original breakout?

Not that there’s anything to all that crazy chart-chompin’ stuff.

Best to you all.

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Guess Who?
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It’s very important  thaty you make your own inquiries in this world, and not rely on the expert testimony of even the chief-most of Lemmings.   There are many ways to skin a rodent, and each trapper has his own preferred signal.   One should not just adopt this ferret’s “inventory to sales” ratio, or that stoat’s “days short outstanding.” 

For example, I’ve offered you two macro-drivers that keep me optimistic in the near term:  Overall poor sentiment and the continuing degradation of the dollar.

I’ve mentioned here before that Jason Goepfort of Sentimen Trader had been warning for weeks prior to our current relief that bearish sentiment had dropped to levels equal or worse to those we saw prior to the early March ’09 market rebound.  

 That kind of bad sentiment doesn’t just provide a wall of worry for a corresponding bullish cycle — it offers a veritable Great Wall of China of Worry.   Look around the site at the posters pulling out great hanks of hair in disbelief that their prophesied market crash has yet to appear.  Remember this: the frequency of their ululations shall be your comfort.

I just hope they are not holding their breath.   Well, there’s always open auditions for the Blue Man Group, I guess….

My second contrarian-return to the mean reason for my bullishness is the fact that this current bull is powered by steam from a steam-punk unit. 

Well, er, okay… it’s either that or the fact the dollar has been plummeting since early June...

That’s quite a move in two months, no?   In fact, I for one continue to expect a rebound, and $80 looks like the right place.   That won’t mean I will discontinue laying the hot blade of lemming death to mine enemies, or lose my bullish bias any time soon.  There are reversals and then their are “corrections.”   The latter is all we’ll get here.

In fact, you all may want to take advantage of that bounce at $80, should it come, and grab some quick fire longs or PM’s you’ve been lusting after.  The way the dollar’s been trading since the Euro scare, it’s not shown a whole lot of relative strength, and even in a rebound, we may not have to wait for long.   

The charade is about up, I think, and pretty soon there will be a full fledged waterfall action on the greenback.   This is my reserved and considered opinion, of course, but one formed in the crucible of study and scenario generation.  I would advise you take similar steps to determine your own way, lest you find your next step deeper than you expected.

You know I like EGO, GFI, IAG and SLW here.   RBY is starting to move again as well, and watch for a break of $6.45 on MVG before partaking.   That may make the difference.  Oh yes, ANV is not done by a long shot, but it should pause for a breather here at $18.50 or so.  

Non-precious, I like farmer ANDE here, again.

Play on, then.

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Update! — Some interesting news from our 1.5 billion-count creditors.

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Today was a warm and fulfilling Father’s Day.   I took the four offspring and their madre and her parents off to our traditional Father’s Day Lunch where we had a toothsome sup at our favorite restaurant complete w. sangrias out on the lanai. 

Then we followed that worthy repast with a late afternoon matinee (blessedly air conditioned, as it’s been over 90 for a week now).   We saw the highly acclaimed Toy Story 3 in “3-d” (sufficiently subtle that it did not bother my usually sensitive inner ear) and I can truthfully say it was the perfect Father’s Day movie, and just a great movie all around.   I might even pick up some DIS on Monday, so impressed was I by those Pixar geniuses all over again.

But this was a busy week, Father’s Day culminations aside, and none were more busy than the deep-mining dwarves of my portfolio that showered me with coyne (sic) even as I wheeled and dealed like a Soprano consigliari in Sinatra’s New York.

For those of you who think this recent market rip as a sign of light at the end of the tunnel, please disabuse yourself immediately.  You might as well ascribe the recent positivity to overzealous vuvuzallah (sp?) blowing as to positive economic news.

Make no mistake, this market is ripping on a combination of black smoke-sentiment rebound and fast money central bank printing.    As a result, stocks as a whole have risen, and my gold and silver plays (not to mention select platinum and palladium names) are looking Atlas holding up the world, but getting ready to shrug.

Last week I gave you RBY and BAA, which were up this past week 19.3% and 21.4% respectively. 

Yes, in one week.  And there will be moooore, on each, bless us both.

Even that damned elusive Pimpernel could not argue with those kind of results, but you must get them while they are hot, like slices of pizza thrown from the tenth story of important buildings.  

I don’t want to hear any complaints, either, as I illustrate my favourites (sic) which I have been recommending now for more than a full year of vociferous blogging.  

Remember my very favourite stock, SLW?  Well, it was only up a mere 8.5% last week.   But that only means you haven’t missed the entirety of the party.   In fact, I think it’s about to get started on the weekly here:

Then there’s my number two beauty, ANV.  It was also up a mere 12.4% last week, but I want to show you the daily on this one to illustrate the dramatic manner in which it made that increase last week.  Note how it, too, is approaching new highs?  Coincidence?

Maybe a little bit overbought on the daily, but that’s one you want to own for the long, hard times.  Weekly is a dream.

Then there’s my lovely EGO, up a mere 6.3% this week, but showing some appetizing possibilities as it too ends the week within a hair’s breadth of new all time highs.  Uncanny, no?  Check this daily out:

Some volume, wot?

Then there’s the grand-pap of them all, RGLD, which looks like it too wants to find new ground above $55 per share.  We may sell off a little bit of the last week’s 4.1% advance, but then we may just consolidate some of this overbought-ness and move on to new highs.    Let’s say I’m not selling any calls just yet:

That’s enough for now.   This should be an exciting week.  Watch the dollar index here.   If it breaks $85.00 here, as I’ve stated before, we could have some serious play in the fields of gold.   Keep an eye on CDE (up over 14%) and PAAS (up over 9.5% last week) for the silver stakes as well.

Best to you all.

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