Ugh. I cannot bloody believe it. I just had a perfectly wrought lengthy post with graphics and witticisms galore… I pressed “Publish” and “voila!” I got the screen of zero tranquility. Apparently my entire post was wiped save for the foolish youtube video I’d downloaded earlier and “saved” to make sure it was showing up.
These are the petty frustrations of the financial blogger my friends and they are enough to drive one mad with righteous anger. So forget about the witticisms and the re-boot of my day of travel. Just know that I believe silver is becoming dangerously overvalued here at 52% over its 200-day EMA, while gold stays strong but humble at only 11.4% over it’s same metric.
I didn’t sell anything more today because I was either driving or talking or talking and driving the entire trading session. Had I seen these things, I would’ve dumped more silver miners. I’ll probably do that tomorrow. In the meantime, two friends have shown progress. The first we spoke about mere days ago.
Look what XG has done since:
The second is our beloved Grandmama… asleep these many months, but waking now to a new day. Just as I predicted AGQ would rise to $300 this year, so too did I prophesy that RGLD would reach $100. I think today was a significant step toward that goal. Grab it on the retrace:
Note, this is a weekly chart and that’s one big grandmother of a consolidation…
I also like RBY here… stay well, my friends.
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Jake is Dr. Goldfinger.
yep.
Great post. I feel like the Maytag repairman waiting for PM’s to break down. The old Maytag repairman, not the new one who is busy fixing all of the federally mandated energy star appliances that are guaranteed to break down within a year or two.
SVM, SLW, and AG look especially egregious right now. I think I may get that $19 pickup on AG….
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I’m reading between the lines and wondering if it’s possible that the market could roll over and take the miners with it regardless of PM prices? In which case do the PM ETF’s become your main vehicle?
I think in that exigency, not even the ETF’s will be a safe haven. As damnable as it is, sometimes cast is safest.
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Agreed. Just look at 2008. Everything that could be sold, was sold.
But they bouced back faster
Highlight & Copy before clicking Publish…it will change your LIFE!
Noted!
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Your post was eaten by my Internet revenants
I believe one calls that an ascending triangle breakout aka BTFO on RGLD.
Perceptive!
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Saw That ,,oce nto gol at 5am to futures contact n gold today..
.rollercoater magic !$$ chewed u -up..ptbull style !
English only, please.
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Sir.
As a core position, does RGLD give you itch in a better place then SLW ? Or do they itch in a good place equally?
Super*
Long term they should both be great as both are low overhead, more operationally leveraged royalty plays. Can’t say I like one better than the other, however.
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AGQ finally hit $300. Thank you so much, Senator:)
Nice call on XG senator ….
“Zoinks!”
No?
Zoinks?
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As in …. Scubby Doo?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDVUFRnifgU
What, my gravatar frightens you like a ghost? Must be your NY connection to MSG, so sorry … I’ll put him away eventually.
So at current rate when do we run out of silver? I have heard 15-20 years, the highest I’ve seen is 30 years not accounting for advancements in technology leading to increased demand of silver, and I’ve heard an estimate of 2 years, but I can’t find anything RECENT! I have to imagine with all of this price increases we’ve seen over the last 2 years that the fundamental picture has changed somewhat. Surely there has to be less consumption of silver than there was 2 years ago right?
Where’s the top? What alternative metals are there for silver and at what price? Is there any possibility silver gets to a price where people start making crappy batteries and electronics made out of say tin or aluminum just because they can’t absorb the higher price needed to have profit margins? Does there need to be a major breakthrough in energy and technology before silver’s no longer needed at the same capacity?
How do you come up with a price target of a scarce resource? At some price it isn’t used AS MUCH anymore. There were plenty of reasons to think silver and gold were still buys in 1970s and 80s for the long run and it takes 40 years later until prices return above those levels. I know silver will be scarce, but it’s still possible that we get more out of the ground due to more miners mining at a faster capacity and a temporary surplus, coupled with a panic and loss of investment demand, right?
Platinum at 1500? palladium at 750? There has to be some metals less expensive than these that will at least replace some functions of silver if it gets high enough priced, right?
Is there a way to mix silver with other metals to reduce cost at sacrifice of the product? I have to imagine there gets certain price levels that this starts happening.
There are other more scarce resources but at some point I imagine the price will have to change enough to the point that it discourages consumption significantly. At that point there will be better investments, but I still imagine we are a ways away, unless there’s an easy way to invest in indium and hafnium
what percentage of your portfolio is precious metals and what point do you start rebalancing portfolio to maintain that percentage, and what point do you reduce your percentage of allocation altogether to reduce exposure to gold and silver? Do you have price targets in mind?
Also, I would think an indirect way to play silver at some point would be to short companies that are too heavily dependent upon silver prices especially if you believe in the dow/gold drift lower continuing.
Just food for thought and hopefully for an informative post if you get the time! Thanks
It’s always a price thing. You can always find lower grade deposits (more expensive to get out) or go undersea (Nautilus Minerals). I bet in 15 years once SpaceX gets their boosters reusable and the cost to orbit drops significantly (To less than $50 per pound to orbit), that we’ll see near earth objects getting the old robotic pick-axe with slugs of PM (gold, silver, platinum, etc.) sent on an atmospheric entry trajectory and landed in controlled fashion at touchdown points out in some desert (or antarctica). It all comes back to supply and demand. Price could go a lot higher (think 3+ digits) before supply properly meets demand again. Has to do with a true shortage, and market manipulation, but mainly to do with helicopter Ben and his international cohorts. Will the price be allowed to get that high? At some point governments will step in and fuck it all up, then blame the speculators for what was their own shortcoming (unsound dollars).
Jake, your PM analysis has been a goldmine for me this year (pun intended). As always I bow to your wisdom in the ways of all things shiney. It would be nice to see you back on twitter again.
TJWP
Soon, I hope.
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Movement in miners today to the upside. Could 1500 gold mean 1600 real fast? 50 silver becomes 60?
Certainly appears that way… And the dollar is headed in the wrong direction for correction.
Could prompt erections.
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Writing from the Crackberry lads, as local tornadic activity seems to have knocked put be power and me server. I will see how much of it got saved but the gist is- gold is holding and ANV is looking attractive here.
That is all til tomorrow.
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Any thoughts on PAAS in relation to its situation in Bolivia? I suppose it’s time for me to crack a filing and see what that mine means to the company.
I have owned Grandmaw for almost 2 years and patiently watched it sashay between 45-55. Why now ? is $1500 that magical for RGLD?