[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O17MA58P-QY 450 300]

___________________________

 Newton says that a body in motion remains in motion unless acted upon by another force.  Right now that treatise translates well into the action provided by our tentative bull market, perhaps best exemplified by the individual success of one CRAAPL, Inc. 

Do I trust this momentum?  Not for a minute, especially not with the struggles my belleweather precious metals stocks have been enduring — a precursor perhaps to the interest rate battles that loom on our horizon.   Will I play the momentum, however?  Of course I will, but with names that makes sense in the broader scale.

Right now, agricultural stocks are starting to make a stealth comeback… moreso those stocks who are largely designed to assist farmer’s yield.  Why?  I believe it’s because the farmer’s cost of capital has increased, despite our low interest rates, thanks to the ridiculous bull market in farm land prices.  Just in Southwestern Indiana alone, farmland that sold for $2,500 to $3,000 an acre six or seven years back is now going for well over $10,000 an acre, and in some cases being sold at auction for $14,000 an acre.  In places like Iowa, the values are coming in even higher.

All of that means that farmers need to increase yield value — even at $6.50 a bushel corn — in order to make a return.  That bodes well for fertilizer companies like  MOS and POT for example.  These are  two potential breakouts that are not quite ready for prime time, in my humble opinion. 

  Not so unready, however, is my MON-ster, which has been running nicely since the first of the year, and only recently experienced a pullback.   I think it’s the pause that refreshes, and the next stop is breaking out of this consolidating triangle (on the weekly) to take out the top of this fibonacci retrace:

  

 

Your relatively low risk stop is pretty obvious on the above chart (below $77.00).  Your upside is broad.  In the bad old days, MON got as high as $154 a share.   I think eventually it will leave even that number behind.

I think we can agree we are in a bull market– at least for the moment — even as we clamber up the Wall of Worry together, pitons digging for purchase, ropes securing us and sealing our collective fates should we drop.   If we are going to take advantage, let’s go after the stocks that have been making sense this year without making a big drunken fuss about it like CRAAPL.   That’s the ags, and I’ll have more on this subject.

Best to you all.

___________________________

Comments »

Avast Ye Steam-punk Scalawags!
________________________________________

Looks like the bewigged and wedge-shoed scarlet coats of the Federal Admiralty have thrown down their first frilly gauntlet and taken a shot across our portside bow last evening with a cannon-load of “hot grape” called “quarter point discount rate increase,” in the less civilized quarters of New Orleans and other pirate dens.

Powdered pooftahs that they are, they are already begging our mercy come the morn as we swing our starboard cannon about to rake their pommy sides amid-ships.    Too late for them, and theirs, I’m afraid, as there’s gold in those Admiralty cargo holds and we mean to have it.

Let’s not get all a-sweat and a-lathered, me scurvy dogs.   The thesis has not changed and certainly the Fed is not going to take the “brave man’s step” of setting the Caribbean afire with rum-soaked English scrip whilst our Parliament (of Whores) continues to spend like grog-stupefied wainwrights on barrel-selling day.    No, maties, they seek to confound us with this Mary-move of callow authority.   No man can call his actions bold while pleading apology in the next breath!  

If anything, said grape-shot toss was mere subtrafuge to cover for additional scrip production in yonder Admiralty’s subterranean printing gaols!  What will occupy the Admiralty’s cargo holds for years — baser and baser scrip — will be what ensures our golden Treasures worth! 

So be not a-feared but rather emboldened by the tightness of Rear Admiral Bernanke’s wedgies, and the sagging of his pompadour.  Now is the time to press the hot cutlass to their throats and let roar with musket, grape and cannon.   The battle is near-won, me swabbies.   Let us not then quail at the size of the Admiralty’s frigates, but rather laugh at their frailty — they are made of paper, lads!

_______________________

This day I shall be indulging in all me favourites, but  most especially those in the silver Escudo doubloons, for the price of bonnie silver is racing back up even faster than that of gold.    To that end I shall be indulging in me favourite miners, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[SVM]] , [[PAAS]] and maybe even the worm-bitten dogs [[CDE]] and Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .   [[AGQ]] is only for the traders, but it may boom off of any pullback here.

Don’t forget me favourite golds either, which number three — Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Some dogs that may be opportunities thanks to yesterday’s scare off  could be New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , along with Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] and even [[BAA]] .  Of course [[GDX]] is a great purchase if you want a catch all.

I also think the Ag side will continue to stay hot, so any weakness in Monsanto Company [[MON]] , The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , and Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] should be seen as an opportunity.  I will likely have more to say on this front.   

Many of you may have seen I chose Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] as my March Madness pick (SLW is too volatile).   I like it and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] as my two hottest tech names for the intermediate to long term (the only way I play).  

Best to you all, my hearties, and if anything today — WATCH SILVER — something seems to be “up.”

__________________________

Comments »