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Call me cynical, but with the Irish Whiskey Soakers getting bailed out via extensive fiscal austerity hand slapping by their European Union betters (bettors?), do you really think this dollar surge is going to last much longer?

I believe the funny money provision is point three or four of “Despotism Made Easy,” which reads like the blueprint for the last four plus years of Hope and Changey recklessness.   I highly recommend the piece for your review — it shouldn’t take you more than ten minutes to read all 14 pages of it.   It explains how keeping people in financial penury by cheapening the paper they use to exchange goods and services (erroneously referred to as “money”) is only one of multiple means toward a targeted despotic end for our once proud Republic.

That need to continue feeding the hungry funny money machine that will keep this economy “going” — at least superficially — will always serve as a millstone around the dollar, no matter it’s near-term reaction to Korean Guttersniping or PIIG-like European snorting.

Since I last left you for a scrumptious giblet delight repast, the dollar has surged in erratic Turkey Gods Trading  all the way to $80.65.  While I was not surprised to see the dollar touch $80.00 on the DXY, I was amazed at how quickly it blew by that number and then almost all the way to $81.00 in subsequent very light trading. 

I just don’t think the dollar has a lot of more runway ahead of it, and it’s not just because of this stealth move in light trading.  It’s also because we’ve retraced the last drop from the highs all the way to the very strong 38.2% Fibonacci Line.   Check it here on the weekly:

That all said, we should gird our loins for a continued move to the $81-$82 region.   It’s not such a stretch from here, and it would be enough to make the recent PM noobs squeal and drop.   Heck, I might even dump some of my December IAG call positions if I see a move to $81.    

Like my pappy always said — be prepared for the worst, so you can take advantage of the best when the time comes.

Best to you all.  

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The Turkey Gods are here.  Tremble, all ye who remain Ursine in attitude.

How do I know? Simple.   I merely whip out my prodigious folding money clip and scan the Benjamins, Grants and Jacksons for signs of wear and tear.   Sure as shootin’, there’s been beak-damage done to all the eyes of my papery dead Presidents.

The Turkey Gods love to eat dollars, but they especially love the vile jellies of moldering dead American War Heroes.   And yes, historical termagents, Ben Franklin was also a war hero.

Said heroes are not to be confused with “The Ben Bernank.” He is the hero only of the Currency Crusades, a tilter at windmills and the paper dragons of deflation. Soon, his unsmiling bearded mug will adorn the $10,000,000 dollar note, Zimbabwe-style.

Tonight, the dollar is below my “drain level” of $78.20 — currently trading at $78.13, after hitting lows tonight (Sunday evening) of $78.08.   I believe this is the “all clear” signal, and will be pushing the rest of my chips all in.

Not sure how many of you caught my large pickup in junior gold stock IAG, as announced in The PPT, the other day, but I grabbed a lot of December 17.50’s well below $17–.   I think that will continue to work.

However, I think the big silvers will be the one’s off the chart next week.  If you were contemplating the rulers — SLW, PAAS, SSRI or even the ETF, SIL, then this week is the time to grab hold before the end of the year.

The one I really like in the more speculative area, however, is EXK.   I also like SVM and MVG in the more speculative range.   CDE and HL — the garbage of the sector, should be handled with care.  No matter, they should all rise through to the end of the year.

RGLD, EGO, and of course ANV, gold juniors all, should also be at the top of your lists, as well.

Best to you all.

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Don’t Look Now… it’s Silver Cher!
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Today’s downstroke rode the same tidal wave out that had been building up and cresting these past weeks and days.   Even I was surprised to see how much power that wave continued to exhibit all the way through this morning’s early peaks.

But you knew that momentum had to recede eventually, and SLW’s egregious heights over any semblance of “the mean” was as good an example as any:

EXK, our other junior silver darling, showed the same signs….

That should make for a nice entry… again.   And although the silvers were the drama queens today, even noble ANV looked to have a little bearish candle hung on it today.  Again, opportunity knocks:

And what, besides outsize momentum, caused these sharp rebounds today?  Of course it was your favourite fiat currency, the almighty U.S. dollar, rebounding out of a seeming death spiral in the low $76 region.  Know look at it:

This weekly chart gives the best perspective of all.   The dollar is obviously rebounding somewhat, but the downtrend is still very much in play.  In fact, I think the dollar will have a hard time getting past that 13-week EMA that’s been containing it for months, like a damsel in a tower.

I don’t believe that line will be crossed this time, either.   Look for a pullback from the high $78-$79 region.

My best to you all, trimmers.  Let the Cher be with you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEyCei4UB_Y 450 300]

… Miss America

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So, you want to trust Dr. Ben and his dollar action today?

‘Cause, I’m gonna tell you… that was some weird stuff today, kids.   Weird action.   Like as in “head-fake action.”

Maybe even “trying to break the buck action.”   Yeah, we all remember how Soros made his first billion, right? 

You think anyone else took notice?

So, I ask again.. you feeling lucky, punks? 

A couple of baubles for your thoughts.  This first I do not own yet, and it’s in the speculative (ie, “non-producing”) gold mining sector:

This second is also not recommended, even though I did buy it today, mostly out of a sandy chagrin caught in the back of my esophagus, borne of my missing the recent moves in REE, which I didn’t buy last week, when I should have.  This is a lesser “rare earth” variant thereof, which I took a very small starter position in today, as per my announcement in The PPT.

Keep in mind this one is overbought, and possibly more important, it rhymes with “barf.”

Best to you all.

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Not my Yanks, that’s for sure
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Drawdown days are a bitch, I don’t care how well hedged you are. Some of my positions took 7 and even 8% haircuts today, but mostly that was the small ones. The bigger ones were hedged, so the bleeding was not entirely egregious. I was almost entirely out of my AGQ with only 400 shares left, so that was not a horrible caining I took even in that double slammer today, given I formerly owned 3k shares.

Word to the wise, the $HUI index is oversold already on the deep dive it did today, so I would not dwell long in the land of shorting this gold bull.  You are far more likely to receive  profitable thrills by waving your junk at a basket filled with hungry ferrets.

Of all the single precious issues out there, I like IVN and GSS to rebound first.  Don’t ask me why, just attend to my Spider Senses.   I also like almost precious REE, if it ever comes back down to earth again.  

In the non-metals world, I still love the Trannies and their strength here, relative to the scaredy cat sell off.   I especially love UPS, and you should look to add to this core holding if it can dip just a little below to it’s 50-day EMA at $66.60 or so:

RGLD is another core hold  you should be looking to glom here.   I will be adding to it, to ANV and to SLW very shortly. 

Watch the dollah!   More tomorrah!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REYOJDANQ0k 450 300]

(Remember when Kanye was witty?)

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We’ve finally done it…  we’ve broken into “free air” on the Miner’s Chart — the venerable $HUI Gold Bugs Index.   Come see it for yourself:

I did a lot of things today in celebration of our free air moment.   First, I covered quite a few of my hedges in ANV and SLW and GDX, some at a loss some at break even.  The ANV was particularly egregious, but we’ll try not to dwell on that.  I still have about a 20% hedge on SLW and about 30% of ANV still hedged.   You’ll note the overbought stochastics and relative strength indicators on the above chart, I’m sure.  That’s my reason for retaining a little hedge.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the dollar is busted, and headed all the way to Target #4 without even a passing “hey howaya?” to Target #3.  Cheggitout:

Sure, we may get a little bounce at $77, but look at what happened after that last bounce.   No, I think the dollar is dead as Jacob Marley on burnt toast.

So please, get out of any silly short positions you may be contemplating “holding out” for.  There’s far more easy hunting out there than going after an Alaskan grizzly with a plastic butter knife.

In addition to releasing most of my hedges today, I also doubled down on an initial IAG long call position (DEC $17.50’s) at $1.60 a piece today.  My original purchase of 80 was at 90 cents each.   I expect IAG to be over $20 before Santa arrives.   I also added a touch more EXK, which was gluttonous of me.  I now own more of that than I even do SLW, though the share price is lower.

Of course, I think EXK will be the next SLW, so there’s a method to my sleep deprived madness.  I also really like RGLD here, and it looks like it’s ready to launch once again.  

My best to you, and to yours.

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