This past week had its ups and downs for me. My ups included getting long AAPL right ahead of earnings around 558, then flipping it the next day for 610. Selling 2/3 of my DOW the day before its earnings was another good move. Those stocks along with a FSLR short provided significant gains that helped offset one of my most asinine moves of the year: shorting AMZN ahead of their earnings. Thankfully, size was minuscule and losses absorbable. My thesis for shorting AMZN was justifiable; they have razor thin margins akin to supermarkets, out of control spending, an absurd valuation (165 P/E), and a “hot” product that sells at a loss per unit (kindle). There was fair chance they would post a loss for the quarter. What I failed to foresee was an accounting gimmick(see zerohedge).
Trading earnings is synonymous with playing table games at the casino, and I will hang my hat on these games for the rest of the season.
Lately, the market has impressed me. In the face of an abundance of skeptics, it has shaken off a significant amount of negative news and continues pressing higher. Continuing claims are the rise, parts of Europe are in 1930’s like depressions, and some Euro sovereigns have been flirting with crisis levels… Only in a bull market is such news completely ignored.
I added some stocks to the portfolio this week.
Chipotle Mexican Grill – CMG is still in an uptrend, P/E is high but justified by the opportunity to expand stores internationally and domestically, solid balance sheet, high profitability.
F5 Networks – FFIV had an exceptional earnings report, company has a solid balance sheet, tremendous growth, and high profitability.
Home Depot – HD is my play on a housing recovery. The stock has been in an incredible uptrend since Oct 2011, plus the dividend is attractive. If it breaks its 20 DMA I will bail.
Intuitive Surgical – ISRG had an incredible earnings call, after a small pullback I decided to pull the trigger. Their monopoly on robotic surgery is so damn appealing, I have owned the stock several times since 2008 and every time I sold thinking I’d booked awesome gains I ended up deeply regretting the decision.
Michael Kors – KORS has a high P/E, but their potential to grow in the coming years with new store openings is phenomenal, Women love this stuff…
Intel – INTC reaction post earnings was not fair in my opinion. I like this company; it has a great dividend, nice margins, good balance sheet & cheap valuation.
Despite my purchases I am still sitting on 71% cash. As these stocks rise I will continue allocating capital towards them.
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