All of Obama’s critics like to pretend he is driving our economy off a cliff. This simply is not true. Nearly a quarter million jobs were created last month. Monthly job growth has been accelerating at pace that should be alarming all republicans. The best part is all the job creation has taken place in the private sector, while public sector jobs are ritually destroyed every month.
There is a renaissance occurring in American Manufacturing as our declining dollar creates more attractive exports for other countries to purchase.
The best thing about Obama’s presidency so far has not been healthcare reform or shooting Osama Bin Laden in the face, it has been stock market performance. S&P 500 returns are the single most important factor in judging a president. Obama has excelled. Since his inauguration on January 20th 2009 the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has returned 67%. During George W. Bush’s 8-year reign of ignorance the SPY fell 40%.
Fun fact: When G.W. Bush took office on January 20th, 2001 the SPY was trading at $134.02. On Friday it closed at $134.54.
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That’s a tought sell around these here woods.
I witnessed, post-2010 elections, a whole raft of employees get hacked by, let’s call them “left” Union groups, only to be replaced by more “urban”, fresh faces who no one knows around here.
Put another way, one demograph was systematically replaced; you might call it economic genocide.
The cause and effect was so noticeable, a class action, led by “white collar” representatives is still pending.
Dubious, though it will be, that “fair” hearing can be heard given population replacement is now considered affirmatively blessed action.
When HOBOama is fired this year, the one good thing that comes out of it: junior wasn’t assassinated.
I am not sure you get my point… 67% returns!
Obama did not go to your company and fire you. Unfortunately you witnessed Darwinism, an example of “survival of the fittest”. People with the same skill set, willing to for less took those jobs.
That is capitalism.
You must be young. You are naive.
Wait, one day, the tables will turn, and your bravado will learn the taste of humble pie.
Until the, lecture with a venir of authority.
Carry on. Next party platitude?
man, i want to hug you for that bra, amen.some people just dont know what the hell it’s like to go from 70k-80k to zero like a light switch.they’ll wish it was “just” humble pie that they will eat.
You want to call 1.2 million people dropping out of the work force “accelerated job growth?” The only fall in unemployment has been off of people giving up looking for work. If a net 1.2 million people give up each month there might be a negative unemployment number by the time the elections role around.
You could look at it as 67% returns, or you could look at it as Bush and Obama combined got us nowhere. Or do you mean to say that Obama did something within his first 3 months as a president that allowed the market to make a generational bottom? Inheriting a market down 50% is the greatest gift a president can receive. You essentially have a get out of jail free card. The market wont fall forever, so you can really do whatever you want and later point to the market and say “look, it worked.”
But none of that matters. He’s getting re-elected regardless of any of these opinions.
Maybe there was some luck involved.
In reference to accelerated job growth, I was referring to the last few months. Obama inherited the majority of the jobless.
Perhaps him just stepping foot into the White House and replacing an incompetent ignoramus gave market participants the conviction to put in a generational bottom.
My figure was from January 2012 only. In January, 1.2 million people dropped out of the work force. That is the only reason the unemployment number fell as much as it did.
Unemployment vs real unemployment.
The former doesn’t count people that give up looking.
I’m no fan of Obama. Heck, I’m not even an American, so I really don’t give a cr@p, but give the credit where the credit is due.
Obama stepped in when the job market absolutely cratered and the unemployment rate was accelerating at an unprecedented level. People seem to conveniently forget this fact.
No president is going to walk in and wave his magic want to fix the mess within a year. They guy had three years and there seems to be a genuine signs of the reversal. Sure, the economy might crater again. Then he will get his well deserved boot from the oval office, but until then, give hims some credit.
well I should really proof read my posts..
I like your post. Ballsy. That’s good.
However, the key point is that unemployment is ONLY falling due to people no longer looking for work. 250K job gains is great for a mature economy, but for one coming off a bottom, we need twice that, at least. Unemployment could stay at 9% for a long time if no one quits looking for work and we have 250K jobs added a month. Its likely the 1.2 million have joined the gov’t dole, which is never good for the economy.
Secondly, Obama has done absolutely nothing for the private sector except punish them. Do I really need to remind you that he reversed a century of contract law and rewarded unions ahead of bond holders with GM? Do I need to remind you that he has allowed the NLRB to sue Boeing for daring to open a factory in a right-to-work state? I could go on and on.
As for the stimulus, which may have been able to actually stimulate things, we have Sec. Paulson’s confidential assessment of the stimulus which shows Obama only sought to reward his friends and cronies and special interests. Very little stimulating happened, as predicted in the analysis by the Sec.
Perhaps you should see what the Dallas fed thinks of the recovery? Be sure to look at the graphs: http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2011/el1109.html
Hmmm. Not so rosy.
The fact of the matter is that the stock market on its own is not a good predictor of the economy. The stock market is not the economy. More than anything, imo, the stock market is pricing in the coming inflation from the loose monetary policy from Bernanke. It has little to do with Obama. Hell, I could say say that it has to do with the fact that Republicans overtook the house 1 year ago in an historical surge, and that has giving the private sector confidence.
The reality of it is that America, despite Obama, is still the best country in the world, and the private sector is not going to give up yet. The private sector, despite Obama, is still adaptable and able to generate returns on capital. Barring complete state takeover of private equity, the private sector will continue to grow and benefit this country. What Obama has done is to make this growth slower and more encumbered by regulations. Thankfully, Obama won’t be able to stop it. He surely is not responsible for it.
Woodshedder,
Respect. I understand people are dropping out of the labor force and thus artificially lowering unemployment statistics. That is why I did not include the unemployment rate in my argument. I simply pointed out that a lot of real jobs were created.
Obama could do more for the private sector. I am not satisfied with his record on that issue and I think his stimulus was grossly inefficient.
I think the stock market is an excellent baramoter of economic activity. I can argue that the republicans that took the house, aka “Tea Party Goons” have proven to be the most incompetent and irresponsible elected officials in history. By stalemating Congress they jeopardized our nations creditability in the credit markets. S&P downgraded us for heavens sake, thankfully their reputation is shit.
Our private sector is the strongest in the world.
“I think the stock market is an excellent baramoter of economic activity.”
Fucking excellent.
http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/4ed0df50eab8ea7e63000018/weimar.jpg
Here’s a picture of the stock market during the Hyper inflation in Germany. Believe me, I’m not trying to say that shit will happen here. Simply saying, this post is fucked and you’re living in your own little fairy tale world.
If anything the stock market is a barometer of risk appetite. Nothing more, nothing less.
“Nearly a quarter million jobs were created last month.”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t it take 250k jobs just to keep up with new workers entering the labor force?
Nice fucking fun fact, but the job market in this country is fucked. This is parallel to the Japanese job market in the 90’s. You have a young highly educated group of workers coming into the labor force that can’t find work. Their skills will soon become obsolete and before you know it they will start jumping in front of bullet trains(Japanese style). **Correction, they jump in front of shitty old trains, bullet trains don’t exist in the US.**
Huh?,
What is occurring in America’s labor force is an example of Darwinism. “Survival of the Fittest”. Workers need to develope skills that are demand or they will fall behind, wither, and die.
250K jobs a month far exceeds new entries in the labor force.
You need 150k jobs per month to stay ahead of new workers entering the job market. I don’t know how solid that 150k number is, as I’ve heard the 200k number thrown around also.
Anyways, about your dollar debasement theory. You do understand the US imports right? How will the US manufacturing sector benefit in the face of rising prices for all factors of production?
“Obama could do more for the private sector. I am not satisfied with his record on that issue and I think his stimulus was grossly inefficient.”
Let me get this straight….You want to tax the private sector, so you can then stimulate the private sector?
Now I understand why Le Fly bans so many people on this site.
I will address your concerns later today after the bell.
Huh?,
American manufacturing can absorb higher input costs if they are selling more units.
I was not discussing tax policy. You do not have it straight.
Your theory on new workers entering the job market is grossly inaccurate.
In the face of rising food/energy costs your avg American is not going to supply the increased demand needed for higher unit sales.
Sigh….I guess no one enters the labor force in your world. Check out the birth rates in the 1900’s, that decade will be hitting working age in this decade. Who knows, maybe I’m wrong and a generation of young people will sit at home watching movies without entering the labor force.
I’m actually quite disappointed with peoples macro economic misconceptions these days.