This is going to be controversial but I have the stats to back it up so have an open mind. Everyone talks about the bid from 3:30 to 4:00. I do not track 3:30 to 4:00 rather I track 3:00 to 4:00.
The reason is I track each hour of the market in hourly increments except 9:30 to 10:00 which I track as a half hour event. So here are the simple facts.
Since January, the best hours to own stocks are 11:00-12:00 and 12:00-1:00 when you track the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000. The chance of success here is 60% for both time periods. The next best period is 3:00-4:00. That batting average is down to 58%. It has been higher.
Ramp Capital does not put its money to work every day. Not even close.
The past two weeks 3:00-4:00 worked great 73% and 67% batting averages. This week so far is 83%. However, the weeks of 7/18-7/22 the batting average fell to 53% and 7/11-7/15 20%.
What is so odd about the week of 7/11-7/15 was a wipe out for shorts as stocks that were heavily shorted and weak technically rose 3.56% when the S&P 500 rose only 1.52%.
The point of all this is that is is important to understand the current phase of the market as it relates to Ramp Capital. i.e. the 3:30 bid. The money behind it has shown a tendency to disappear when the effect will not last into the next morning or that the money has already been made for the day like was seen the week of 7/11-7/15.
Therefore, today’s action is key to whether Ramp Capital is going to take a hiatus until after Labor Day.
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Damn, son went there.
This may sound rude, so please keep an open mind as well.
Idea that certain period of time or space on chart offer any indication as to direction or extend of price series is absolutely preposterous. I myself designed two systems, based on that fucking pseudo-statistical TA mambo-jumbo nonsense. With disastrous results, as you can imagine. I guess I was suckered by some temporary irregularities into thinking I can game short term index movements.
But since you are smack in a middle of this particular ring of hell:
1. Why limit yourself to common time interval?
Trading day is 390 minutes long. Do 10 bars, 39 min each (or 40min each if your charts print separate closing candle). Your back testing software will love it… 😉
2. Why stop at day hours? You can go around the clock and enjoy funny titles while you are at it (I actually had a system these specific candles)
(Chicago time)
17-21… Evening post
21-1……Tokyo drift
1-4……..London calling
4-7……..early bird
7-8:30…news dump
8:30-10.opening print
10-12….lunch time
12-14….afternoon fade
14-15:15…. Power Hour
That ought to keep Ramp Capital busy till Labor Day… No?
Feel free to explain this https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/704310818846973952/photo/1
That is a Puking Dragon chart. :O
Add to the fact the chart I posted previously, the best 15 min interval is 3:30-3:45, the worst was 3:45-close. Hence they in effect cancel each other out. Another reason why I have reduced working hours from 30 min last year to 15 min. Been that way all year.
Ramp,
I’ve seen this before. Eric puts out alot of great stuff, but its all AFTER the fact.
I am firmly convinced (based on my own experience with real money in real time), that stuff like that is a pure statistical anomaly. It will be arbitraged away just when you decide to bet big, or it will start sliding to different time slots so you will be buying when you suppose to sell, etc.
Bro, Im not bursting your bubble. It it works – great…
Except i have painful personal experience, contrary to your expectations.
Watch your six
JMHO
You do realize my account is tongue in cheek right? I was born from a statistical anomaly.
The problem with backtesting is that it still doesn’t predict future performance, just gives you a fake confidence that it will work again.
Again, he is tracking the 3-4pm period. I’m tracking 15 minute period from 3:30-3:45pm. Completely different. The 3-4pm tracking is irrelevant to my movement.