Several big tobacco firms look to be setting up as shorts here. MO, on the first daily chart, looks close to breaking a mini-bear flag to test some of its longer-term moving averages.

On a longer-term timeframe, PM is working through what could easily be a head and shoulders top after a steep multi-year uptrend. A close under $82 likely confirms the pattern.

Note that this is all happening while e-cig company VPCO, a penny stock, is surging on heavy volume.

I will try to update this idea later today or on my video market recap after the bell.

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The following is just a small excerpt from my latest Weekly Strategy Session (please click on that hyperlink for details about trying it out). which I published for members and 12631 subscribers this past Sunday. 

Intermarket Analysis, Part I. 

To update our analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF weekly chart, you can see the greenback retraced back up to the scene of its big breakdown from September, only to be met with expected overhead supply there. The presumption is still that the downtrend in the Dollar will persist, overwhelming bulls unless and until they can get back (and hold) inside the violated multi-year pennant (light blue lines).

Of course, a weak Dollar would typically mean strong commodities, and vice versa. Updating the crude oil ETF, you can see that the USO found initial support after the Iran deal at its summer lows of $33. This represents a good level against which traders can play a counter-trend long, meaning a protective stop-loss belongs not far below that level. UCO is a levered long ETF for crude. Further Dollar weakness would likely help crude longs.

Natural gas has seen a very strong rally off a potential double-bottom in recent weeks. In order to wholly confirm the double-bottom for much higher prices, though, the UNG ETF would need to close above $19.80, denoted on the daily chart below.

In the meantime, I am looking to see how the recent rally is consolidated. If we see an orderly bull flag, perhaps filling out the purple lines I have drawn, I am looking at another stab at the UGAZ (tripled-levered long ETF for natural has) as a means to aggressively play further upside.

Please click here to continue reading

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CRR looks as attractive as any fresh long setup, especially given how heavily-shorted the stock is. On the first daily chart below, you can see the tight consolidation within the context of an established uptrend. I am looking at $126 as being the upside price breakout trigger.

MCP was a counter-trend long idea I mentioned over the weekend. The daily chart, second below, has me thinking that strength back above Friday’s highs is good for a fast short squeeze.

MELI is a short idea. We last looked at the stock when we noted the rising wedge breakdown. Since then, we have seen a potential bearish consolidation at the 200-say moving average. Bulls will argue this is merely a stabilization process at the 200-day. But I say weakness below $110 ushers in another leg lower.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

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No one correctly “Named That Chart,” from my last post, with a rare stump of the readership. Admittedly, it was another tough one this week.

The correct answer is that the monthly chart is of TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI), a provider of temporary blue-collar staffing services.

On the chart below, you can see the stock basing under well-defiend resistance, stretching back three decades.

Given the firm’s sector, and how specific it is to the employment situation in our economy, it should be quite interesting to see how this plays out. A breakout above $28 would be something to behold.

Thank you to everyone who played.

I will be back later tonight with trading ideas for Monday.

But I already gave tight analysis in my latest Weekly Strategy Session published, earlier today. Check it out!

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The readers (especially three-time master winners @StockCats [Hat Tip to him for the above-pictured meme] and “KenMora”) continue to be very good and quick in guessing these. So, this is going to be a tough one. Thank you to everyone who has been playing along.

Hint this week: You are looking at a monthly chart zoomed back to 1996.

Try to guess:

1. The ticker symbol;
2. The sector in which the stock trades; and
3. Whether or not you think the stock and sector will move higher into year-end, not to mention what it means for macro, if anything.

Please click on chart to enlarge

(Strategy Session published for members, please click on link to receive it)

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While I finish up my Weekly Strategy Session, here are a few charts I posted earlier on Stocktwits/social media to consider.

ALXN is a long idea out of that impressive base and recent tight daily chart consolidation. Watch it above $126.

N continues to be vulnerable after a great run this year. Note the confirmed double-top and subsequent descending triangle being formed. Below $94 likely sees a swift move lower again.

SINA has a similar setup to Facebook, in terms of teasing well-defined lateral support. I think $76 needs to hold this week.

WEN has been a huge fast food winner this year but is now getting sloppy up here. Watch that potential diamond top being formed.

What’s for Sunday breakfast?

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