To follow-up on my posts yesterday alerting you to the action in the precepts metals and miners, it appears the silver and junior gold miners are leading the charge higher this morning. Typically, when they lead it is a good sign of risk-on for the complex.

I got into some JNUG yesterday inside 12631. If the GDXJ breakout holds, first chart below, especially over $43.60, I will consider adding.

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I noted Alcoa as a long-term bearish-to-bulish reversal candidate.

Another concept I have been discussing of late is what to look for to distinguish a doomed bear market snapback rally off  a temporary bottom versus a bonafide low and new bull market.

In essence, we want to see price act irrationally, in the sense of wanting to see it become and stay overbought for an extended period of time.

When we look at the top pane of the weekly chart for Alcoa, below, we can see the RSI remaining stubbornly overbought, above 70, during the recent breakout, increasingly the likelihood that the major aluminum producer has put in a meaningful bottom. Pullbacks and consolidations should now likely be stalked for long entries.

Which stocks are at the top of your watchlists this morning?

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For you night owls out there, consider the weekly chart for arguably one of the bigger market bellwethers, Big Blue (IBM).

We know the stock has been a huge laggard to this bull market for several quarters now, as the bulls have ignored this usual market “tell.”

On the weekly chart, you can see price is pinned up against its declining 50-day moving average after a recent snapback rally, still in quite a bit of technical damage.

What say you? Why is the stock so weak? Are there larger implications? Is the stock a screaming buy here?

Speak your mind.

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You can see the weekly chart for spot crude oil, below, is in the process of printing an outside, engulfing week after a sharp rally into the recent Russia news. If we see some additional follow-through lower I think you can consider some inverse crude ETF’s like DTO SCO.

As far as equities, some long ideas into Thursday on strength: AA CUDA M SCCO.

Short ideas on weakness: MCD NKE RL SBUX.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

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I am back in long the sugar ETN, entered earlier today inside 12631, looking for more of a sugar rush in the form of a secondary breakout higher.

The action in coffee (JO) suggests that some major players are way out of position for a painful squeeze.

Also, with the action in CSIQ and a few other solars today, I would probably steer clear of the sector for the rest of this week.

More on my video market recap after the bell.

See you here.

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As a follow-up to my last post about the metals and miners, and a tip of the hat on Twitter to @ETFGodfather and @tradewithpete, note SILJ, an interesting but very thin junior silver miner ETF. With a close over $14.47, it would confirm a major double-bottom–Definitely worth watching, even if you are not trading it.

Elsewhere in the commodity world, crude oil is dumping today and looking more and more like a recent false breakout. The natty gas ETF is battling at the $25 level, and sugar is pushing on higher.

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