Bonds are selling off, but still in an overall uptrend, while the Aussie is very strong. Even the Euro is bounce hard today, though remains plenty damaged after its recent swoon. All of those actions are consistent with a global “risk on” rally. However, I would eventually like to see stocks move on their own merit, rather than with tight correlations to other markets. That would likely be a sign of a true, sustained uptrend.
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You are right Chess. If you look at the weeklies on $TLT it has developed a hammer and is sitting on its 10 day. It always helps in times of news driven highs and lows with there attendant choppy daily charts to look at the weekly or better still the monthly charts. They give a better view. TLT looks very solid on monthly too.
I know the urge as a day or swing trader is to say who cares about these longer term outlooks. In choppy market it stupid not to. That’s why cash is the best in times like these.