Watching This Divergence Into Tomorrow

The afternoon breakdown in the broad market saw me locking in some gains and cutting some losses inside 12631. However, I am on watch for this divergence that appears to be playing out: While the SPY lost its morning lows during that afternoon breakdown on a 30-minute timeframe, the small-cap dominated IWM did not. Usually, the higher beta small caps would be leading us lower if risk is truly heading for the exits. This is a possible bullish divergence that I am looking at, headed into tomorrow.

_______________________

_______________________

Comments »

______________________

You can see how hard the bulls are fighting to defend last Thursday morning’s lows. I pointed out the 30-minute chart on the SPY as an example this morning. Although we momentarily breached those lows, the buyers quickly pushed up back into the general support area on that timeframe.

Looking at the small-cap ETF, IWM, you can see that the risk appetite names are holding in as well. Note the similar battle last Thursday’s lows. Again, a true breach below it and we should see a quick swoon down into that gap. So, I continue to watch it closely. As I write this, the bulls actually have a chance to push us up and out of this base.

______________________

Comments »

__________________________

Recall this post that I wrote last Thursday, discussing the gap lower in TLT, ETF for Treasuries. Earlier last week, TLT had threatened a breakout from a prior consolidation, only to give it all up, and then some, with that gap. Today, Treasuries are on the move higher. Within the context of TLT, this looks to be nothing more than a retrace of the gap left from last week’s misdirection lower. I am looking for Treasuries to stall out here, but of course there is always the possibility that an even more sinister trap awaits, where Treasuries go off to the races again. This is all the more reason to watch a reference point like this closely, as we have a pretty clear line in the sand at $114. Watch it.

__________________________

Comments »

_______________________

We gapped down over 1% across the board this morning, with the S&P 500 leading the major indices lower. The selling is pretty widespread, with just about every issue on my screens flashing red. After the steep run that we have seen of late, a down day should not be too surprising. Keep in mind, we are not even back to the mid-point of last Thursday’s big green marubozu candle on the S&P 500 daily chart. So, in many ways this selling is entirely expected. At issue now is how contained and orderly, or not, the selling pressure is. As the session develops, the bulls want to see either a late-day buying spree, or at least have the selling pressure abate to the point where the market comes to a standstill.

The 30-minute chart of the SPY below illustrates that we are retesting last Thursday morning’s support before we went off to the races. If this area fails, then the bears are likely to press the issue further, trying to fill the gap seen below dating back to last Wednesday. I am watching this current area closely, and will likely adjust my portfolio accordingly should we lose it.

_______________________

Comments »

Direct Vimeo Link Click Here

Members of The PPT and 12631 Can Click Here for My Regional Banks PPT Screen

Tickers Mentioned in Video: $BPFH $CHFC $FCF $HCBK $SUSQ $TAYC $TCBI $XLF 

 

Comments »

The semiconductor space has plenty of charts that have already seen steep runs and are a bit too extended to chase headed into Monday morning. However, there are a few semis that look to be setting up behind the leaders. See my notes and annotations on the charts below.

_________________________

_________________________

_________________________

_________________________

 

Comments »