IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT FOR CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE 12631 MEMBERS

We inside 12631 wish to express gratitude to all of our members who have helped to make us the best trading service on the internet. We have seen extraordinary demand for 12631 since its inception, and we want to maintain the quality of individual attention that RaginCajun and I offer to each member. Starting on January 1st, 2012, we will be raising prices up to what is charged in The PPT–$49.95 for the monthly, $239.95 for the semi-annual, and $359.95 for the annual subscriber.

From now until New Year’s you will able to lock in the current, ultra-low 12631 Trading Service annual rate of $25 per month for the next year. Out of respect to our loyal members, if you are a current 12631 subscriber then you will be grandfathered in at your current rate, be it the monthly, semi-annual, or annual subscription.

This is a tremendous opportunity to lock in a great value for the next full year. Taking advantage of this offer means that our price increase will be a non-issue for you until 2013. The time to join 12631 is now for $25 per month.

Please Click on this 12631 Hyperlink to Learn More and Join Us Now.

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Most of you born after 1985 or so know John Madden as the famous football announcer and the man behind that wildly popular eponymous video game series. However, for a long time was a very successful head football coach for the Oakland Raiders. One thing Madden used to tell his team before many games was that it did not matter how fancy the X’s and O’s of the plays they had drawn up during the week were–If his players did not block and tackle properly, and execute with intensity, then no amount of play-calling or play-design would help win the game.

Similarly, no amount of enticing setups and consolidations will automatically lead to a market breakout if buyers of size and at least some conviction do not step up to the plate. If there is one takeaway from this week in trading, it should be exactly that. I had stressed all week the idea of not taking anything for granted in this market, and that alone allowed me to outperform. That may sound weird from someone who is known as a chartist, but I do not drink the kool-aid. I am fully aware of the limitations of technical analysis, which is why I almost always abstain from holding positions through earnings and major headline events. In other words, even the prettiest bullish setup that looks like a sure thing is anything but. Trading the odds and probabilities is a far cry from trading the certain future.

The bulls failed to capitalize on a big opportunity this week, and as a result we saw the bears regain the initiative starting on Wednesday afternoon. We have a holiday-shortened trading week coming up with a major American holiday. Charts are basically mixed across the board, with some sloppier than others after the late-week selling. Let’s see if the bulls can regroup for the Christmas season.

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Momentum darling Salesforce.com is down nearly 10% today after disappointing earnings last evening. In recent posts, I have been touching on the topic that many high growth leaders since the 2009 bull market have either showed major signs of slowing down, or have outright rolled over, such as GMCR and NFLX. Most traders glance at the Salesforce action today and figure that if they have no position then they missed the move, either lucky to not be caught long, or not ballsy enough to have shorted it into earnings. What I like to do in a situation like this is look at the broader view of the stock, since my reasoning is that I may gain an edge there, as most traders are preoccupied with the short-term machinations in this issue.

The weekly chart of Salesforce shows that the major uptrend since 2009 has been broken. That alone, however, is insufficient to say that the stock is about to crash–It could easily be resetting its base count before resuming the march higher. Instead, note the 50 period weekly moving average now acting as tough resistance as it flattens out begins to turn down. Since August, Salesforce has been trapped in a vicious trading box, complete with sloppy price action. To my eye, the bulls absolutely must hold $109 as support, otherwise a fast and furious move down to the low-$90’s looks to be in the cards. Should that happen, the bears will have won the “War Box” we would be looking at the other side of the mountain, which always gets uglier than most think is possible.

Salesforce.com may be down heavily today, but looking at the longer-term view can help give you parameters as to where the stock can go beyond the initial earnings shock.

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I know it is an options expirations Friday before Thanksgiving, but I almost always become hesitant to embrace the bull case when the Nasdaq Composite lags the major indices like it is this morning. As you know, many of the high growth firms are house in the Nazzy, lending itself to a pretty good indicator of risk appetite, or lack thereof. I mentioned on my recap last evening that I probably would not put on any new longs so long as the Nasdaq Composite failed to recapture 2600. Thus far today, we have yet to see that event materialize, despite the Dow Jones stodgy mega caps, as well as the transportation stocks acting well. The S&P 500 also fell back inside that 1120-1220 range from the summer, which to me means that it is best to just let the dust settle here. With OPEX and the major holiday coming up, I expect volumes to dry up as well as trading edges.

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What separates the winners from losers in financial blogging and trading, beyond basic position sizing and risk management discipline, is an ability to laugh off the inevitable negativity. With the way this market has been acting for much of 2011, I will let you in on a little secret that most of your resident gurus and self-appointed trader phenoms on Twitter are actually on mega-tilt and have likely, or are currently, blowing up their bankrolls. When that happens, be it in a casino at the poker table or in this social media age of the stock market, you have to avoid being an innocent bystander who gets caught up in that emotional nonsense.

If you are a blogger with tons of web traffic, like we have tons of here on iBankCoin, then of course lazy competitors are going to argue that writing one long blog every few days is “better” than multiple posts per day. In a similar vein, if you actually dare to have a short-term trading style and care to analyze the markets frequently, then of course some washed-up has-beens are going to call you pathetic. It is quite easy to sashay in and out of blogging, hindsight trading after the closing bell and declaring you are up for the year and going on vacation, but in the end you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

Beyond that, if you have the audacity to actually post…wait for it…witty photos, then of course self-righteous readers are going to pipe up and declare that they are offensive to “all readers,” when the reality is that my reader base and web traffic has done nothing but get off to a huge start and exponentially grow every single month for two years, being linked to constantly by the The Wall Street Journal, Abnormal Returns, TheStreet.com, The Reformed Broker, among others along the way. You see, there simply are not enough hours in the day to fight all of these battles against negativity, especially when it comes to trading, blogging, and the stock market. And that might as well apply to anything else in life. So, the idea is prioritize and to focus on what matters most, while laughing off others losing their heads and capital. In this life, some people are undeserving of your sympathy.

Currently, the stock market has broken down from a widely-watched consolidation pattern. There seems to be a good deal of talk about whether this is actually a trap and not a true breakdown at all, but objectively speaking we have seen a nasty reversal on Wednesday and downside follow-through on Thursday. So, the bears have the ball for now and it is their to lose. With that in mind, two short setups to watch are in the seemingly perpetual laggard-ridden engineering and construction sector. FLR and FWLT look to be quality shorts upon further weakness, indeed.

A sense of humor goes a long way in life. You can laugh off trivial things like some idiot cutting you off in traffic, without escalating the situation into a road rage felony crime, as just one example. So let the haters keep hating while @RaginCajun and I, along with 230 of our closest friends, keep outperforming this market and having fun along the way inside 12631.

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