The War Box Cometh

_____________________

We have been short CRM for a while now inside 12631, and today’s weakness is notable even with the broad market lower too. The weekly chart above shows that the stock was on the cusp of breaking down from a sloppy period of consolidation that I termed the “War Box” in this post a few weeks back. Since then, there was a sharp rally up to the mid-$120’s, making life not so easy for shorts. I had been stalking it for a while, but waited until that rally up to $126 where I initiated the short. When you factor in the loose and sloppy chart pattern and the heavy selling volume over the past few months, Salesforce.com remains one of those leaders since 2009 that is still vulnerable and, at the very least, is far from offering up a quality long setup.

Comments »

_____________________

The ultra zoomed-out SPY 30-minute chart above shows that price is currently leaning down against a key level dating back several weeks. I suspect that in order for the bulls to have a chance to capitalize on the bevy of impressive charts headed into this week, this $123.65-$123.80 area needs to hold. As you can see, if price breaks below it there is a dangerous threat of a nasty gap fill lower. On the S&P 500 Index, I am looking for 1230 to hold. Not-so-incidentally, if we fall below 1230 we will be back inside that choppy multi-month summer trading range.

Watch this level closely as an important reference point.

Comments »

_______________________

Coming into this week, I had made several posts here on iBC and inside the 12631 chat room about how many charts were firming up. Indeed, the bulls appeared to have as good a chance as any to sustain a meaningful breakout soon. Consistent with the nature of the market over the past few months, we then proceeded to walk into a more than 1% opening gap lower this morning. I am still in very heavy cash, with one long position, and short CRM, which is down over 5% thus far.

Underneath the surface, the chart setups I had been presenting are still intact despite the senior indices flashing big-time red. My sense is that some more time is needed before we see whether the bulls are for real with bonafide breakout this week. Days like today illustrate why it is important to have patience even when you see plenty of enticing setups, as I began to do so over the weekend. While “leaders” such as AMZN CRM PCLN continue to struggle and show relative weakness, other charts like INHX are impressive.

On the whole, I am looking for a reason to get involved on the long side, given the amount of improved charts out there. However, I am at my best as a trader when I do not force the issue. In the current market, I am going to wait for the bulls to make a final big push out of this multi-month congestion area soon. If that happens, I am ready to pounce on the long side. If not, then we know this market is dominated by too much uncertainty looking out many months regarding the global economy and slowing growth.

Comments »

Tickers Mentioned: $AZPN $CCOI $CPRT $EQIX $GRMN $GTLS $LTC $TRGP $ULTA 

Direct Vimeo Link Click Here

 

 

Comments »

__________________________

The persistent nature of overnight gaps and sensitivity of price action to news, rumors, and headlines has, heretofore, precluded me from putting on longer-term, conviction swing trades. That said, I see some technical signs that the market is currently improving, and I am staying open-minded and as nimble as ever. In doing research this weekend, the following weekly charts appear to represent the types of swing trades to which I can see myself making a longer-term commitment in an improving market, rather than just a series of quick one-night or one-week stands with decent daily charts, as has been the norm for months on end.

__________________________

__________________________

__________________________

__________________________

__________________________

Comments »

Mad Dog and Glory (1993) is an interesting comedy/drama, if only because Robert De Niro and Bill Murray go against type. In a role reversal, De Niro plays the shy, lonely police crime scene photographer, while Murray is the hot shot, yet goofy wannabe stand up comic, mafia boss. De Niro’s character saves Murray’s life on a fluke, and Murray rewards De Niro with a lady “friend,” in the form of Uma Thurman. The film manages to stay light and never really develops into heavy crime drama, but the easy flow, sharp wit, and great cast make this one worth watching.

___________________

 

Comments »