Not the Big Leagues

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The stock market closes at 1 pm EST today, and I have a hard time believing that the varsity traders are manning institutional desks right now. We have a bounce going, but the underlying participation and energy of it is not compelling me to take much action yet. The Euro remains weak, and the Nasdaq Composite is lagging the major indices. Recently, when we have seen that happen it usually portends a failed bounce.

I am still in “show me” mode, looking for the bulls to come in and do some heavy lifting before I am willing to have confidence in trading a bottom. The oversold conditions of the market can easily be worked off with uninspiring bounces like we have today, which obviously bodes well for the bears. With Black Friday today, it is not surprising that the retail/consumer discretionary plays are catching a bid. However, the key for me will be to see not how the junior varsity performs today, but rather the varsity next week and beyond.