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…to conclusions.
I lightened up a little bit this morning before the market sold off further. However, I am forcing myself to stand pat for now. The S&P 500 is still operating above all major moving averages, and we came within three points of hitting the rising 20 day moving average, thus far today. The resilient dip-buyers are probably growing more frustrated with each passing day that we fail to break and hold above 1150. At the same time, the bears have proved inept at pushing us below 1130 over the past few weeks.
I am keeping my hedges on, since my longs are still technically healthy. In this situation, I think it is important to be nimble (Read: a decent cash position), so as to not get caught leaning the wrong way.
Finally, below is an updated chart of the Aussie Dollar/Japanese Yen cross. I believe that this currency pair is the best gauge of global risk appetite, with Aussie strength indicating the commodity-rich country is benefiting from global risk appetite, while Yen strength indicates risk aversion, with an unwinding of the carry trade. I urge you to continue to monitor this chart, as it has settled into a very tight base for nearly three weeks now.
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At a break of 1030 are you going to start to lighten up on longs?
1130? Yeah, I would look to raise more cash/put on more hedges, if we hold below there.
lol…still stuck in early July…as you assumed I meant 1130.
What helps you determine to sell vs hedge?
Again, thanks, I have learned a ton from your posts.
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