Despite the S&P 500 successively closing lower each of the past three weeks, there have been plenty of stocks that have not only broken out to new highs on strong volume, but have firmly held those breakouts as well. I take this as a sign of underlying strength in the market, as well as a notable distinction between now and 2008. Of course, only time well tell as to whether we are in for another massive leg down in the fall. Obviously, losing the 1040 level would probably open the floodgates for the bears to swarm the market with aggressive short selling, and bulls to start panicking.
In the mean time, however, we still have a full week of trading before the Labor Day holiday. I expect to see more light volume sessions this week. With the most recent push lower coupled with the upside reversal on Friday, I believe the bears will step off of the gas pedal until the middle of next week. The bulls have the short term initiative, and the opportunity to run the market higher before the varsity starters get back to the their trading desks next week should be a relatively easy one.
Below, you will find my best trading ideas for the upcoming week. Feel free to pick and choose whichever setups best fit your style. Please keep in mind that these are trading ideas only. I also urge you to use stop losses in order to mitigate your downside risk–I prefer a trailing 7-8% stop loss.
I hope you find these ideas helpful.
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you’re terrific. when you say these are trades only and “I am long” should I assume these are mostly day trades or short swing trades at best? on average how long is long? I ask because I follow your trades and notice you’re in and out quite frequently – you definitely jump on board the momo stocks of the moment ie AKPT – I understand you don’t trust the macro view and so find these little pockets of trades while you figure out the big picture – is that accurate? Also do you have a core portfolio and what if anything do you hold longterm in there? Like lethargic big cap divi players, etc. Thanks!
Thanks, baron.
I am holding anywhere from 2 day to 2 months on average. it really depends on how the stock develops. I am not a daytrader, but other than that, I will try and respect the price action. So, sometimes I will be nimble while other times more patient.
My long term portfolio focuses on big cap dividend plays. I am overweight tobacco firms right now, and am looking at building positions in pharma stocks like TEVA.
Would you consider PFE for your dividend plays?
Yes, definitely PFE.
i like it when some of my watch list crosses over with yours. But i’m curious, when a stock like APKT is seemingly on the radar of the entire stocktwits universe, does that change how you play it?
Thanks.
APKT is definitely a favorite on the stream. There are times when I am a contrarian based on twitter/stocktwits sentiment, but it works better for a broad market tell than an individual name, in my experience.
Hey whats up Chesswine. I added you on twitter be sure to add me back. You seem like the coolest one on this site without all the BS comedy jokes like The Fly lol. Anyway I wanted to touch base with you because I didn’t get a chance to get back at you with the ANV trade. Trade ended up working out for some coin, but if you were a trader trying to swing it then it would have been a break even scratch most likely. In any case, you got some good plays up and looks good. Come check out my work on my blog bro and support me also. I should be on here with you guys bloggin .hahaha later
Chris,
I don’t know if you saw my reply last time, but you can post on this site too. Go over to “The Peanut Gallery” tab on this site. Post your stuff for a month, and if the readers give you high ratings (there is a 1-5 star rating for each post) then you will get your own tab for a month (King of PG). After that, you may get your own tab for good depending if The Fly has openings.
As for ANV. Yeah, I was playing it for a 1-2 day move, and sold out earlier in the week. The fact that the broad mkt was oversold and set up for a bounce made me not want to be short anything.
Sounds like a plan
Chess- Thank you for the charts and post, appreciate it, as always, good ideas, thank you again
Thanks for reading, ajb.
Buying GLW tomorrow.
NFLX looks good for a breakout play. Good job Chess.
I have some gems myself, will be posting tonight.
Thanks, RC. Looking forward to yours.
Great charts and thanks for the ideas!
Pretty tight ranges on all of them.
How do you feel about NFLX, it’s chart looks good to me, it’s on a pullback from it’s 52 week high and displays a classic bullish pattern. When do you think it would be the best time to enter this position, hold for more of a pullback when it kisses the 50 day SMA?
It is one of the charts above. I like it here.
Thanks for the setups Chess. Loving them, as usual.
I particularly like GLW in the hole here. I’m already short TLT, but if I weren’t, I would let it bounce before sinking my fangs into it. Looks like it could get a bounce soon, off of the 104.25 – 105 area.
Thanks again for sharing your work.
Plugged my nose and bought more puts on this TLT bounce here @ $107. You still liking it short Chess?
P.S. Got some GLW too.
Still like TLT short/puts. Stop out above $109. Like GLW.
short setups in independent oil and gas look pretty good