This has been a slow motion sell off since the 4/20 top. It has been moderately risk off in the old leaders. The new leaders which are energy and materials have been moderately risk on. The overall index is barely down and the VIX while up off the bottom is really not showing any fear yet. Credit has widened a little but as long as oil stays bid I imagine that it will stay tight. Basically watch the dollar as it is trying to bottom. As a bear, I love my individual stock shorts but the overall short of the market is not exciting yet. Bottom line is we do not have any bearish structure yet. We need to take out the 4/7 lows and get a back test before its time to get overly bearish. I expect a moderate bounce here even if we take out the 4/7 lows. The economic data continues to get worse but beware the summer chop.
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Joined May 7, 2014
165 Blog Posts
I will chuckle and line up my shorts if we rotate into consumer oriented stocks for the next 10 days. Would be the best short term pain trade.
Hey Blue, nice post as usual. Quick question, what do you mean by “get a back test before its time to get overly bearish” in reference to taking out the 4/7 lows? Do you mean trying to recapture that 4/7 level but failing? Thanks for the insight.
Blue,
What names are you short?
Footlocker is me. Where are you?
Regards,
Chuck bennett
The perfect scenario imo is we bounce off the 200 dma and back test the 4/7 low. Then the bears and go full steam.
cash in the bank $.93 / share
share price $.79
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IVPAF&ql=0
https://soundcloud.com/sprott-us-media/rick-robert-final
Friedland is a rockstar in pm mining
I think that’s the most popular theory thus far. it’ll either be a self fulfilling prophecy or we could have an overshoot as a headfake.
30% of my port is short the QQQs & I’m itching to increase exposure on this next bounce
@Blue. What’s your take on AMZN at this level? TIA!
@chuck how are you shorting $FL? Puts? I like the idea, and have been doing more research on this. Specialty retail stores are not a good long term bet in my view. Thanks for your insight.
Yes, I agree.
Positioned for a lower FL
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Boyaj,
We are going higher.
Chuck,
Would rather not say as short interest is high.
Fifty2week high,
I have been dead wrong about AMZN.
Blue – why so paranoid about your short sales? I’m short some low floaters from way up and happy to share. Mostly recent restaurant ipos (last 2 years) and some SAAS stocks. Do tell.
It’s a shame AMZN didn’t work out. Most of the B&M retails are suffering, I guess that helps online retails… Good short on FL, Chuck!
@boyaj. We short stock only
@blue. What you short? VHC? Lol
Regards
Chuck Bennett
High five @ fifty 2 week high
Regards
Chuck bennett